原油价格下跌未能撼动美国汽油价格（双语）

　　U.S. benchmark oil prices have tumbled since early May, but drivers -- and the economy -- have yet to feel the full benefit.

　　5月上旬以来，美国基准油价已经大幅下跌，但驾车人──以及整个经济──尚未充分感受到油价下降带来的好处。

　　While crude-oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange are down 38%, ending last week at $82.26 a barrel, the average price of gas at the pump is down just 9% in that time.

　　纽约商品交易所（New York Mercantile Exchange）原油期货价格下跌了38%，上周收于每桶82.26美元。但在同一时期，加油站汽油均价仅下降9%。

　　That suggests that some forecasts for an easing of pressure on the U.S. economy may be optimistic, for now. Economists estimate that a $10 drop in oil prices translates to an increase of a few tenths of a percent in gross-domestic product growth. But that is largely dependent on the decline in prices flowing through to consumers. With financial markets tumbling due to fears of a second recession in the U.S. and debt contagion in Europe, dropping fuel costs would be a welcome relief for household budgets and business balance sheets.

　　这说明，一些人预计美国经济承受的压力会得到缓解，这种看法目前来看可能是过于乐观了。经济学家估计，油价每跌10美元，国内生产总值增幅就会提高零点几个百分点。但这在很大程度上取决于油价的下跌是否传导至消费者。在金融市场因担心美国二次探底、欧洲债务危机蔓延而出现动荡之际，燃料价格的下降对于家庭财政和企业资产负债表都会带来求之不得的缓解。

　　The disparity comes in part because of a quirk in the oil market; U.S. gasoline prices are affected far more by international crude prices, which haven't come down as much as U.S. crude prices. In fact, the gap between international prices and U.S. Nymex oil is at a record high.

　　原油与汽油降价幅度出现这种差异，部分原因在于石油市场的一个怪现象：美国汽油价格受国际原油价格的影响要大得多，而国际原油价格的下跌程度还没有赶上美国原油价格的下跌。事实上，国际油价与美国纽约商品交易所油价之间的差别已经达到了纪录高点。

　　Even then, gas prices are still lagging behind. Much of the fuel sold in the U.S., especially on the East Coast, follows the price of Brent crude, which is down 14% since the beginning of May. The Nymex price is primarily a benchmark for some oil in the middle of the U.S.

　　 即便如此，汽油价格还是没有赶上原油降价幅度。美国很大一部分出售的燃料是跟随布伦特（Brent）原油价格走势而动，尤其是东海岸地区。从5月初以来，布伦特原油价格下跌了14%。纽约商品交易所的原油价格主要是美国中部地区部分油价的基准。

　　Brent is being held relatively high by strong demand from emerging markets such as China, and lingering worries about turmoil in the Middle East, which could curtail supplies. Refiners have been reluctant to ratchet down prices, hoping to capture as much profit as possible lest prices shoot higher again, said Sander Cohan, principal at energy consultancy ESAI Inc.

　　由于中国等新兴市场需求强劲，而中东乱局可能限制供应的担忧挥之不去，布伦特油价维持在相对高的水平。能源咨询公司ESAI Inc.首席咨询师科汉（Sander Cohan）说，炼油公司不愿意下调价格，希望获得最大化的利润，以防油价再度猛涨。

　　'Typically, the retailer will raise prices in front of rising crude and be more reluctant to lower prices' when it drops, he said.

　　他说，一般来讲，零售商会在原油价格上涨的时候涨价，而当原油价格下跌的时候就不那么愿意降价了。

　　Some consumers have noticed.

　　一些消费者注意到了这一现象。

　　"I don't understand how the oil price can fluctuate so much, and yet the price of gas has just not changed,' says Ritch Blasi, a 57-year-old telecom marketer from Middlesex, N.J. 'If a barrel of crude drives the price, there's a lot of different things that happened between that crude and when it goes into my car. And something in there is messed up."

　　新泽西州Middlesex的57岁电信业市场人员布拉西（Ritch Blasi）说，我不理解，怎么原油价格如此波动，而汽油价格根本就没有变化；如果说价格是由原油推动的，那么从原油到加入我汽车中的汽油这个过程中就有很多不一样的事情发生；这当中肯定有什么东西出了问题。

　　A lag may be expected, but this time around it is far more pronounced. In the second half of 2008, for example, when oil slumped 68%, gasoline prices fell 61%. Regular-grade retail gasoline was at $3.58 a gallon last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. Prices remain 33% higher than this time last year, while crude is just 11% higher.

　　汽油价格跌幅不及原油或许是在人们意料之中，但这一次的差别要显著得多。比如在2008年下半年，原油价格下跌68%，汽油价格下跌61%。能源情报署（Energy Information Administration）数据显示，上周常规级零售汽油价格为每加仑3.58美元，仍比去年同期高出33%，而原油价格同比仅上涨11%。

　　Many suggest that crude prices may be unlikely to fall much further, removing hopes for further relief for the economy.

　　很多人提出，原油价格可能不太可能进一步大幅下跌。这样一来，经济承受的压力就无望进一步缓解。

　　In a shift from recent years, when investment flows and prices of other assets were guiding oil-price projections, analysis of supply and demand is regaining its importance. The continued thirst for oil in China and other countries has become a crucial part of that.

　　在近几年，为原油价格预测提供指引的曾是投资资金流和其他资产的价格。现在有所不同，供需分析正变得越来越重要。中国和其他国家的持续原油渴求是这种分析当中的一个至关重要的部分。

　　Nymex prices have hewed close to $80 in recent trading. Tim Evans, an oil analyst with Citi Futures Perspective, said prices near current levels are reasonably balanced given the current outlook for oil supply and demand, a view shared by several market watchers.

　　纽约商品交易所原油价格最近已经逼近80美元每桶的关口。花旗期货视点（Citi Futures Perspective）石油分析师伊万斯(Tim Evans)说，考虑到当前的石油供需展望，当前水平附近的价格基本处于均衡水平。多位市场观察者也持这种观点。

　　J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. expects oil demand to grow by as much as 1.2 million barrels a day this year, despite worries that the U.S. is downshifting to another recession, with turmoil in the U.S. and Europe cutting just 250,000 barrels a day from its earlier forecast.

　　 虽然人们担心美国正在进入又一次衰退，但摩根大通（J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.）预计，今年每日石油需求最多将增加120万桶。欧美的乱局只让该公司把原来的每日需求预测下调了25万桶。

　　Only a major cratering in the global economy is likely to bring either Brent or Nymex oil prices back down to the lows seen in 2008, says Adam Sieminski, chief energy economist at Deutsche Bank.

　　德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）首席能源分析师谢明斯基（Adam Sieminski）说，只有全球经济陷入大崩溃，才有可能让布伦特油价或纽约商品交易所油价跌回至2008年的低位。