人民币升值步伐可能暂缓（双语）

　　One of the first casualties of the fading global recovery: pressure for yuan appreciation.

　　全球经济复苏力度减弱最先造成的影响之一：人民币面临的升值压力暂时减弱。

　　The world's economic elite is gathering in Washington for the International Monetary Fund's annual meetings, which run from Sept. 23-25. In the past, that has been an opportunity to exert a little pressure on China to allow faster yuan appreciation.

　　全球经济精英将聚首华盛顿，参加9月23日至25日举行的国际货币基金组织（IMF）的年度会议。在过去，这个年会是向中国施加一点压力、要求加快人民币升值速度的机会。

　　The signs in August were certainly positive. The annualized pace of yuan appreciation against the dollar picked up to more than 11%, up from an average of around 5% in the first seven months of the year. The trade-weighted exchange rate, a more comprehensive measure of movements in the yuan, also gained some ground.

　　今年8月流露出的种种迹象当然是积极的：折合年率计算，人民币兑美元的升值速度加快到超过11%，而今年头七个月的平均速度大约只有5%。而衡量人民币币值变动的更加全面的指标贸易加权汇率也有所上升。

　　But August's surge has faded. Appreciation ground almost to a standstill in the first half of September, and it is unlikely to return to anything like August's electric pace. There are three reasons why Beijing allows accelerating gains in its currency: strong exports, high inflation and international pressure. A fading global recovery pushes back against all of them.

　　但8月的涨势已经消褪：9月上半月人民币几乎没有升值，想要重现8月那种令人欣喜的涨势是不可能的。中国政府允许加快人民币升值速度的原因有三个：出口强劲，通胀较高以及国际压力。但全球经济复苏的力度减弱抵消了上述所有三个因素。

　　August's trade data, which showed exports near a record high, were surprisingly strong. But with the U.S. and European economies teetering, the outlook is gloomy. The latest official survey of China's manufacturers shows overseas orders falling, which will make Beijing nervous about imposing additional currency pressure on exporters.

　　8月份的贸易数据显示，中国出口接近历史高位，出人意料地强劲。但美国和欧洲经济摇摇欲坠，全球经济前景黯淡。对中国制造商的最新官方调查显示，海外订单数量下降，这令中国政府感到紧张，他们不愿再给出口商施加额外的汇率压力。

　　Inflation, meanwhile, is high but appears to be past its peak. The consumer-price index fell to 6.2% year-to-year in August from 6.5% in July and a fading global recovery is expected to drag prices down further. Prices for China's commodity imports also have come off the boil. Crude oil fell to $86 a barrel in the first half of September from $113 a barrel in April. That reduces imported inflationary pressure, and the incentive to accelerate yuan appreciation.

　　 与此同时，通胀率尽管还在高位，但显然已不在峰值。消费者价格指数（CPI）的同比增幅已从今年7月的6.5%下降到8月的6.2%，而全球经济复苏的力度减弱预计将进一步拉低物价。中国进口大宗商品的价格也开始回落。9月上半月的原油价格从4月的113美元/桶下跌至86美元/桶，油价的下跌降低了输入型通胀的压力，也打击了政府加快人民币升值的积极性。

　　On the political front, the European sovereign-debt crisis provides cover for China's leaders. An undervalued yuan, which helps Chinese firms gain market share at the expense of foreign rivals, might be part of the reason for Europe's malaise. But the immediacy of the crisis distracts attention from slow-burning issues like the exchange rate. Burgeoning foreign-exchange reserves, also a product of the controlled yuan, even allow China's leaders to pose as Europe's saviors, buying sovereign debt at their hour of need.

　　在政治方面，欧洲的主权债务危机给中国领导人提供了庇护。币值被低估的人民币可能是欧洲经济萎靡不振的部分原因，因为人民币币值被低估有助于中国企业获得市场份额，但损害的却是外国竞争对手的利益。但欧洲主权债务危机的急迫性将外界的注意力从汇率等并不亟待解决的问题上分散开来。迅速累积的外汇储备（这也是人民币汇率被管制的结果）甚至让中国领导人能以欧洲国家救星的身份出现，在欧洲国家需要时购买他们的主权债务。

　　Yuan appreciation won't grind to a halt. An aggressive move by the Federal Reserve that has the impact of further weakening the dollar could force gains in the bilateral exchange rate. But a fading global recovery means August's accelerated appreciation already is old news.

　　人民币升值的步伐不会停顿下来。美联储（Federal Reserve）咄咄逼人的举动（此举带来的影响是美元进一步疲弱）可能会迫使双边汇率升值。但全球经济复苏的力度减弱意味着8月份人民币加速升值的消息已是明日黄花。