全球油价与中国食品通胀（双语）

　　Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, the Indonesian president, has launched a national drive to encourage his countrymen to grow their own chilli peppers. The South Korean government has released emergency supplies of cabbage, pork, mackerel, radish and other staples as part of President Lee Myung-bak’s war on inflation. This week, the Indian cabinet met to discuss the soaring price of onions, an issue reputed to have caused the downfall of two previous administrations. As in 2007-08, the topic of food inflation – even food security – has percolated to the very top of the political agenda.

　　印尼总统苏西洛·班邦·尤多约诺(Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono)已向全国发出呼吁，鼓励民众自行种植红辣椒。韩国政府动用了卷心菜、猪肉、鲭鱼、萝卜及其它日常食品的应急储备，这是韩国总统李明博(Lee Myung-bak)抵御通胀的努力之一。印度内阁日前也召开会议，讨论洋葱价格飙升的问题——人们普遍认为，正是这一问题导致了之前两届政府的下台。与2007-08年一样，有关食品通胀甚至是食品安全的话题，已经成为各国政府的当务之急。

　　The spectre of inflation has rattled investors. India’s stock market has fallen 5 percent since the start of the year. Indonesian shares, among the world’s best performers in 2010, have slid 7 per cent in a few days. Central banks are caught in a bind. Bank Indonesia, citing concerns that higher interest rates could attract more inflows of hot money, last week left rates unchanged for the 17th month in a row. That has prompted concerns that Indonesia’s monetary-policy horse might be clopping along far behind the inflationary cart.

　　通胀“幽灵”令投资者惶惶不安。新年伊始，印度股市已下跌5%。2010年的表现在全球名列前茅的印尼股市，数日之内也已跌去7%。各国央行都陷入了困境。印尼央行(Bank Indonesia)上周决定维持利率不变，这也是该行连续第17个月维持利率不变，原因是担心上调利率会吸引更多的热钱流入。这不禁让人们担忧，印尼的货币政策可能正远远滞后于通胀增速。

　　In China, too, higher food prices are feeding inflation, which scaled 5 percent in November, well above the official 3 per cent target. One of the unorthodox countermeasures taken by Chinese authorities has been to allow vegetable trucks to travel toll-free on highways – a sort of quantitative easing for carrots and aubergines.

　　中国亦是如此。食品价格的上涨正加剧通胀——中国去年11月份通胀率达到5%，远高于3%的官方目标。中国政府采取了一系列非常规对策，其中之一是允许蔬菜运输车辆免缴高速公路通行费——这某种程度上相当于对萝卜和茄子施行定量宽松。

　　Beyond the immediate inflationary anxieties, the real question is whether high food prices are here to stay. Many investors are betting that rising living standards across the emerging world, particularly in China and India – with 2.5bn people between them – will exert long-term upward pressure on the cost of food.

　　除了迫在眉睫的通胀焦虑，真正的问题在于食品价格高企的局面是否会持续下去。许多投资者正押注于整个新兴世界（尤其是总人口达25亿的中国和印度）生活水准的日益提升、将对食品成本构成长期上行压力。

　　Nearly three years ago, when food-price rises sparked riots in several poor countries, Robert Feldman, an economist at Morgan Stanley, put out a note called “Buy Chicken!!” Since poultry has a far lower “feed conversion rate” than pigs or cows, he said, it was more economical. As more people ate meat, he predicted, the economics of chicken would speak (perhaps cluck) for itself. In similar vein, Nomura last September published a report called “The coming surge in food prices”, in which it built an investment strategy around fertiliser producers, farm-machinery makers and assorted shippers and storers of food.

　　近3年前，好几个穷国因食品价格上涨而爆发骚乱。当时，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)经济学家罗伯特·费尔德曼(Robert Feldman)发布了一份名为《购买鸡肉》(Buy Chicken!!)的报告。他表示，由于家禽的“饲料转化率”远远低于猪或牛，因此更为经济。他还预测，随着更多的人吃肉，鸡肉的经济效益会不言（也许要说“鸣”）而喻。野村(Nomura)去年9月份也发布了一份类似的报告，题为“食品价格即将飙升”(The coming surge in food prices)。在报告中，野村提出了一个围绕着化肥生产商、农业机械制造商、以及形形色色的食品运输商和储备者的投资战略。

　　One possible response to the question about the likelihood of a structural rise in food prices is: let’s hope so. Higher prices would partly reflect greater demand from the billion-plus people in the world who are still poorly nourished. As Amartya Sen, India’s Nobel prize-winning economist, points out, too many Indians remain ill-fed. By some estimates, no fewer than half the country’s children are malnourished. If the 500m or so Indians living in poverty today began to eat half-decently, that alone would have a substantial impact on food demand.

　　对于目前食品价格的上涨有多大可能是结构性的问题，一个可能的回应是：期望如此。涨价在一定程度上反映出，全球逾十亿营养不良人口的需求有所提升。正如印度诺贝尔经济学奖获得者阿玛蒂亚?森(Amartya Sen)所指出的，目前仍有太多印度人营养不良。一些人估计，该国至少有半数的儿童营养不良。如果眼下仍生活在贫困线以下的约5亿印度人开始吃得像样一些，仅此一点，就会对食品需求产生重大影响。

　　Of course, as Thomas Malthus famously underestimated, rising demand for food is not bad so long as supply keeps pace. Between 1965 and 1998, the global population rose from 3.3bn to 5.9bn, but real food prices actually fell.

　　当然，只要供应跟得上，食品需求不断上涨并非坏事，而众所周知，托马斯·马尔萨斯(Thomas Malthus)对这一点估计不足。1965年至1998年间，全球人口从33亿激增至59亿，但实际食品价格实际上有所下降。

　　In China, periodic bouts of food inflation notwithstanding, farm production has kept up with the rising demand. Despite the fact that its people consume more calories and more grain-intensive meat, China has remained a net food exporter, says Jonathan Anderson, economist at UBS. It has done a good job of improving yields through better irrigation, use of fertiliser and land reform to encourage the creation of bigger farms. Agricultural production has risen in spite of the fact that some farmland has been lost to urbanisation. Today’s global food-price increases are more the result of a supply shock caused by fires in Russia and floods in Australia than by a sudden surge in demand from China – or anywhere else.

　　在中国，尽管不时会出现食品通胀，但农业生产一直跟得上日渐上涨的需求。瑞银(UBS)经济学家乔纳森?安德森(Jonathan Anderson)表示，虽然中国人消耗的卡路里和大量耗费谷物的肉类有所增加，但中国仍是一个食品净出口国。中国通过更好的灌溉、化肥使用以及鼓励农田合并的土地改革，大幅提高了产出。尽管城市化过程吞没了许多耕地，但农业生产有所提升。目前全球食品价格上涨，更大程度上是由于俄罗斯大火和澳大利亚水灾造成的供应紧张，而非中国或其它哪个国家的需求突然激增。

　　Nor are high prices necessarily harmful. For one thing, they can help to transfer wealth from more affluent cities to the generally poorer countryside. In theory, higher prices should also encourage investment in farming and related infrastructure, increasing output.

　　食品价格高企也不一定就是坏事。首先，这有利于财富从相对较富裕的城市、转移到普遍较贫穷的农村。从理论上讲，价格上涨还应该会促进对农业及相关基础设施的投资，由此增加产出。

　　Food, unlike hydrocarbons, is a renewable resource. But land, water and energy – farming requirements all – are finite. Fish stocks, though replenishable, can be exhausted. Yoichi Funabashi, a Japanese foreign policy expert, says the underlying cause of last year’s diplomatic clash between China and Japan over disputed islands was a struggle for marine protein.

　　与碳氢化合物不同，粮食是可再生资源。但作为农耕必要条件的土地、水和能源却是有限的。渔业资源尽管可再生，却有可能耗尽。日本外交政策专家船桥洋一(Yoichi Funabashi)表示，去年中日两国就争议岛屿发生外交冲突，根本原因是为了争夺渔业资源。

　　The biggest constraint to ever-higher production may be energy, the proximate cause of the 2007-08 food-price shock. The more modern farming becomes, the more heavily it relies on hydrocarbons in the form of fertiliser, as well as fuel for tractors and transport. In the words of John Gray, a British political philosopher: “Intensive agriculture is the extraction of food from petroleum.”

　　制约产出不断提高最主要的因素可能要算是能源——能源也是导致2007——08年食品价格危机的直接原因。农业发展得越现代化，对化肥、以及拖拉机和运输工具燃料等碳氢化合物的依赖程度就越高。用英国政治哲学家约翰?格雷(John Gray)的话讲：“集约农业就是从石油中开采粮食。”

　　That is borne out by a recent curiosity. Research by two economists at the International Monetary Fund finds a close correlation between the price of oil and fine wine. What is true for wine will hold for rice, wheat, potatoes and onions. If the growth of India and China is destined permanently to inflate the cost of energy, it’s a pretty safe bet it will have the same effect on the cost of food.

　　最近一项新发现证实了这一点。国际货币基金组织(IMF)的两位经济学家经过研究发现，油价与高档酒价格之间存在紧密关联。油价与大米、小麦、土豆和洋葱的价格之间亦是如此。如果印度和中国的增长必然会不断推高能源成本，那么肯定也会对食品成本产生同样的影响。