中国高层暗示将用人民币升值抗通胀（双语）
In official comments that have fueled speculation about faster appreciation of the yuan, senior Chinese leaders seem to be acknowledging an argument long made by Washington and others that a stronger yuan may be helpful in taming the country's rising inflation.
中国高层领导人发表的一些官方言论似乎承认华盛顿和其他方面长期以来的一个观点：人民币升值或许有助于抑制中国不断加剧的通货膨胀，这类言论引发人们猜测人民币将更快升值。
U.S. officials, and many economists, have argued that an artificially cheap Chinese currency, while boosting China's exports, is ultimately self-defeating because it adds to inflation, in part because export earnings flood the economy.
美国官员和很多经济学家都曾说，人为压低人民币汇率在提振中国出口的同时，最终也会损害本国利益，因为它会由于出口利润泛滥于国内经济等原因加剧通货膨胀。
In recent days, as inflation readings have accelerated, Chinese officials have made comments that some analysts believe signal greater acceptance of that argument. Premier Wen Jiabao, at a meeting last week of the State Council, China's equivalent of a cabinet, listed 'strengthening the flexibility' of the yuan's exchange rate as one of several tools the government should better use to control prices. Less senior officials have made that argument before, but Mr. Wen's remarks were unusual for a top leader.
一些分析人士相信，中国官员近几天在数据显示通胀加剧的情况下发表的言论，暗示他们对上述观点有了更深的认同。总理温家宝在国务院上周一次会议上，把提高人民币汇率“灵活性”列为政府为控制物价应当更好利用的多种工具之一。此前也有级别比他低的官员说过这样的话，但温家宝的言论对于一位高层领导人来说是不寻常的。
Still, economists say Beijing's change in language, while significant, is unlikely to result in a sharp jump in the yuan. European Pressphoto Agency中国总理温家宝，此图摄于2010年。
上周，温家宝把提高人民币汇率“灵活性”列为了政府为控制物价应当更好利用的多种工具之一。不过济学家说，北京措辞的改变虽然意义重大，却不太可能带来人民币汇率的大幅上升。
'China appears to be on the verge of allowing faster currency appreciation in response to inflation,' Mark Williams, senior China economist for Capital Economics in London, wrote in a note Tuesday, citing official comments. But Mr. Williams predicts the yuan will end this year around 6.20 per dollar, a gain of about 5.25% from current levels─meaning only a slight pickup in the pace of appreciation.
伦敦公司Capital Economics资深中国经济学家威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)在周二一份报告中以官方言论为依据说，中国似乎正在接近于为抗通胀而允许汇率更快升值。但威廉姆斯预计，今年年末人民币将在1美元兑6.20元人民币左右，较当前升值幅度约为5.25%。这意味着人民币升值速度只是略有加快。
The yuan ended trading Wednesday in Shanghai at a record high against the U.S. currency. But at 6.5255 per dollar, the yuan has gained only 4.6% since June, when Beijing ended a nearly two-year peg to the dollar. That is a pace of about 0.5% a month, much slower than some economists and foreign critics have urged.
周三上海市场，人民币收于1美元兑6.5255元人民币，创下纪录高点，但自去年6月份北京解除人民币与美元维持近两年的挂钩以来，升值幅度只有4.6%。算下来每个月升值幅度约为0.5%，远远低于一些经济学家和外国批评人士呼吁的速度。
Economists generally agree that faster appreciation could help cool prices, at least somewhat. A stronger yuan would reduce the costs in local currency of crude oil, iron ore, soybeans and other commodities that China imports in enormous quantities─soaring prices for which have been passed on to consumers in higher costs of food and transport.
经济学家普遍认为，加快升值有助于冷却物价，至少可以在一定程度上冷却。人民币升值会降低中国大量进口的原油、铁矿石、大豆和其他大宗商品以本币计算的价格。进口大宗商品价格的飙升，已经以食品和交通成本上涨的形式传导给消费者。
Mr. Wen has said fighting inflation is China's top economic priority this year, and the government has raised interest rates four times since October, ordered companies to halt price increases, and cranked back the supply of bank credit. But consumer prices still rose in March at their fastest pace in 32 months.
温家宝曾说，抗通胀是今年中国经济工作的头等大事。自去年10月份以来，政府已经四次上调利率。除此以外，它还下令企业暂停涨价，并重新收紧银行的信贷供给。但今年3月份消费价格仍然出现32个月以来的最大涨幅。
On Monday, People's Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said the government is working to reduce the accumulation of foreign-exchange reserves. They have soared to more than $3 trillion largely as a consequence of China's currency policy, which forces the central bank to buy dollars from exporters and foreign investors. Mr. Zhou said the reserves pump excess cash into the economy and 'exceed our reasonable requirements.
中国人民银行行长周小川周一说，政府正在着手减少外汇储备的积累。主要由于中国的货币政策迫使央行从出口企业和外国投资者手中购买美元，外汇储备已经猛增至三万亿美元以上。周小川说，这些储备向经济体注入了过多现金，已经超过了中国需要的合理水平。
China's currency policy has long been a source of friction with trading partners, especially the U.S., which argue that an undervalued yuan unfairly benefits Chinese exporters. On Monday, a delegation of 10 U.S. senators arrived in Beijing─including New York Democrat Charles Schumer, perhaps China's biggest critic on the currency issue─for meetings with Chinese officials at which the Americans plan to raise the exchange-rate issue.
中国汇率政策长期以来都是与贸易伙伴、特别是美国发生磨擦的原因，这些贸易伙伴认为，人民币汇率低估给中国出口企业带来了不公平的好处。一个由10名美国参议员组成的代表团周一抵达北京与中国官员会谈。美方打算在会谈期间提起汇率问题。代表团成员包括纽约州民主党参议员舒默(Charles Schumer)，他可能是汇率问题上抨击中国最猛烈的一位。
But the Obama administration also has stressed to Beijing the importance of a stronger yuan in fighting inflation, recognizing that China's leaders place far more importance on domestic considerations than on foreign pressure.
奥巴马政府还曾向中方强调人民币升值对于抗通胀的重要性，它认识到，中国领导人对国内情况的重视远远超过对国外压力的重视。
Top political leaders in China like Mr. Wen─the ones who ultimately decide key issues like exchange-rate policy─in the past didn't typically view the currency as a monetary-policy tool, analysts say. But that may be changing.
像温家宝这样的中国高层领导人，是汇率政策等核心问题的最终决策者。分析人士说，过去他们一般都没有把汇率当作一项货币政策工具来看。但事情可能正在起变化。
'There may be a shift under way from thinking about the exchange rate mainly as a variable that affects the competitiveness of exporters to a macroeconomic variable that is part of the management of growth and inflation,' said Louis Kuijs, economist at the World Bank in Beijing.
世界银行(World Bank)驻北京经济学家高路易(Louis Kuijs)说，目前可能正在发生一种转变，不再把汇率主要视为一个可以影响出口商竞争力的因素，而是把它视为一个宏观经济因素，是管理经济增长和通货膨胀的一部分。
Still, estimating the impact of a stronger yuan on inflation with any precision is difficult.
尽管如此，很难确切估计人民币走强对通胀的影响。
And there are limits to the relationship between the two. Higher costs for imported fertilizer and diesel affect the agricultural sector, but most of China's food—which accounts for nearly a third of the basket used to calculate the consumer-price index—is grown domestically, not imported.
此外，二者之间的关系也是有限的。进口化肥和柴油价格的上涨会影响农业，但中国大部分粮食都是国内种植的，而不是进口的。食品占了中国消费者价格指数(CPI)计算权重的近三分之一。
Even for goods that are imported, the government's other tools, like price controls, help mitigate the impact of imported inflation on consumers: State-set prices for gasoline and diesel in China have risen about 10% this year, even as global prices for crude oil have soared more than 20%.
即使是对进口商品，政府的其他工具（比如价格控制）也可以帮助减轻输入型通胀对消费者的影响：中国由政府设定的汽油和柴油价格今年上涨了约10%，而同期全球原油价格飙升了20%以上。
A stronger yuan would do little to affect one key structural component of China's inflation: rising wages. Economists believe that China has hit a point in its development at which demand for labor starts to grow faster than supply, pushing up salaries. A survey conducted by Standard Chartered in the first quarter of 2011 showed average wages in a sample of 87 manufacturing firms rising by 9% to 15% from the previous year.
人民币走强对中国通货膨胀的一个主要结构性成分──不断提高的工资影响甚微。经济学家认为，中国的发展已经到了一定的阶段，劳动力需求的增速开始超过供应的增速，进而推高了工资。渣打银行(Standard Chartered) 2011年一季度进行的一项调查显示，在调查的87个制造企业中，平均工资较上年同期涨了9%至15%。
Balanced against the benefits of a stronger yuan are concerns about the potential impact on exporters, who employ a huge share of China's work force. Many of them operate on thin profit margins. Concern about exporters is one reason top officials have long insisted that any change in the yuan must be measured. 'We will further increase the [yuan's] flexibility according to the market,' Mr. Wen said last month. 'But we must also keep in mind that this kind of reform is gradual, because it affects companies and employment.
另一方面，人民币走强会引发对出口商潜在影响的担忧。出口商雇佣的工人占了中国劳动力总数的一大块。很多出口商的利润率非常低。对出口商的担忧是政府高层一直坚持人民币升值必须慎重进行的原因之一。温家宝上个月说，将根据市场需求变化，进一步加大人民币汇率浮动弹性；但同时要坚持渐进升值，因为要考虑到企业承受能力和就业问题。
A hazard of the steady, gradual approach to appreciation is that it invites speculators to pump capital into China to profit on what they see as a one-way bet. Authorities revile such 'hot money,' in part because it can further fuel inflation.
稳步渐进升值的一个危险是，这会吸引投机者向中国注入大量资本，以便从他们认为只赚不赔的押注中获利。有关部门抨击这类热钱，原因之一是热钱会进一步推高通胀。
As a result, some economists have argued that Beijing should opt for a sizable one-time revaluation of the yuan. But even academic advocates of this approach conceded that it is politically untenable.
有鉴于此，一些经济学家说，北京应该选择一次性大幅升值人民币。不过，即使是提倡这一做法的学术界人士也承认，这在政治上是站不住脚的。
Last spring, Zhang Bin, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Science, proposed a one-time appreciation, followed by a return to a pegged exchange rate. Now, however, he admits: 'The economics make sense, but politically it would be impossible to get agreement.
去年春季，中国社会科学院高级研究员张斌提出了一次性升值、然后回到与一篮子货币挂钩的汇率建议。不过，他现在承认，这在经济学上是说得通的，但政治上无法获得同意。
Xia Bin, one of three academic advisers on the central bank's largely powerless monetary-policy committee, argued in an Internet post Tuesday that a one-time jump in the yuan 'shouldn't be excluded.' But he also said this was a 'long-term' prescription. 'In the current situation, excessive fast appreciation isn't good for the Chinese economy or social stability,' he wrote.
夏斌周二在网上发贴说，不排除一次性升值的情况。不过他也说，从长期来看，逐步的升值是必须的。他写到，在目前的情况下，升值过快，不利于中国经济和社会稳定。夏斌是央行下属的基本无权的货币政策委员会中三位专家顾问之一。
Some economists argue that the general approach to measuring the yuan's exchange rate is misguided, because it overemphasizes the dollar. While the yuan has gained 4.6% against the U.S. currency since June, its 'real effective exchange rate'—taking account of price changes and the yuan's value against other currencies like the euro—is little changed.
一些经济学家说，衡量人民币汇率的一般方法误入歧途了，因为它过于强调美元。尽管去年6月以来人民币兑美元已经累计升值4.6%，实际有效汇率却变化很小。实际有效汇率考虑到了物价变化和人民币兑欧元等其他货币的汇率。
Data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that in the period from June 2010 through March 2011, the real effective exchange rate has actually depreciated slightly. Economists say that means there is scope for appreciation without hurting the competitiveness of exporters. But even the more bullish estimates appearing in the last few days expect appreciation of only 6% to 8% against the dollar over the course of the year.
国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的数据显示，从2010年6月至2011年3月，人民币实际有效汇率实际上小幅下降。经济学家说，这意味着存在在不损害出口商竞争力的情况下升值的空间。不过，即使是过去几天出现的更加乐观的估计也认为，今年人民币兑美元将仅仅升值6%至8%。
