中国因素迫使亚洲国家干预汇率（双语）

　　日本打响了应对强势日圆之战，也由此加入了其他许多面临同样汇率问题的亚洲政府阵营，这个问题就是与中国的竞争。

　　当人们的注意力集中在日圆兑美元汇率创下15年高点，进而令日本周三开始干预汇市的同时，日圆兑人民币汇率也快要达到十年来的高位。

　　考虑到人民币的问题，这使得日本这个发达经济体与韩国、泰国和台湾这些依赖出口的经济体有了同样的处境，这些与中国既是竞争关系又是贸易关系的经济体认为有必要对汇市进行日常干预以调整它们的汇率。

　　野村证券(Nomura)驻新加坡的外汇策略负责人弗林特(Simon Flint)说，中国是共有的特性，因为它是亚洲最大的竞争者，在某些情况下还是亚洲最大的贸易伙伴。

　　当中国允许人民币升值时，正如过去几天的那样，这给其他亚洲经济体对汇率走高的容忍度留下了空间。美元兑人民币周四在上海市场上收于6.7248元，这是自1994年人民币开始交易以来的最高收盘水平，此前中国央行制定的人民币汇率中间价已连续五天创出新高。自6月份以来人民币兑美元已经上涨了1.5%。

　　实际上，鉴于对中国汇率走势的预测而非应对，中国之外亚洲经济体的币种汇率上扬。自6月19日中国表示将对其外汇政策进行调整之后，投资者将资金投入了其他亚洲币种，希望从这轮汇率走势中获得更大利润，即便多数时候人民币仍在原地踏步。

　　自中国6月份宣布的汇改以来，韩国、泰国和新加坡货币兑人民币的汇率都上涨了3%左右，加重了它们对其出口竞争力的担忧。这三国加上台湾都活跃于外汇市场，买入美元，推动外汇储备达到或接近创纪录的水平。中国之外的亚洲国家拥有2.9万亿美元的外汇储备，中国一国拥有2.5万亿美元。

　　这些经济体决定进行干预，据分析师说部分原因是因为如果不这么做，它们的货币将会升值，从而使其竞争力不及中国。就日本来说，中国和美国是它最重要的贸易伙伴，分别占据着日本出口的18%和16%。尽管过去以来日本一直遵照七国集团间的总体协议对汇市不予干预，但在有些经济学家看来，干预汇市是日本为保护脆弱的经济复苏而拥有的为数不多的方法之一。

　　过去十年里，亚洲经济依靠低汇率支撑的出口型增长而实现蓬勃发展。一些亚洲国家正准备采取行动，刺激国内消费，降低对出口的依赖，但是成效有限，尽管各国广泛认为这种经济增长模式的转变是必要的。

　　弗林特说，汇率的确影响竞争力。他说，就亚洲整体而言，出口型增长模式十分成功，很难忽略这个制胜之道。

　　中国还通过减持美元、增持邻国货币促使其外汇储备更加多元化，这也对亚洲国家的汇率决策造成了一定影响。虽然中国对其外汇储备的构成口风很严，但是近几月韩国和日本称中国突然大幅增持它们的国债。

　　中国的增持给日圆和韩圆带来了升值压力，也进一步加剧了亚洲紧张的政治局面。

　　渣打银行(Standard Chartered PLC)负责汇市研究的全球负责人亨德森(Callum Henderson)在一份研究报告中表示，中国增持日本国债可能助长了日圆的升值。他说，虽然中国的人民币汇率机制更加灵活，人民币也有所升值，但是通过购买日本国债，中国已揭开了与各国外交和金融关系的新篇章。

　　汇丰控股(HSBC Holdings PLC)外汇策略师耶特森加(Richard Yetsenga)认为，其它亚洲国家的央行像中国一样，利用曾经干预汇市时积累的外汇储备买入日圆，而不是买入美元，这在某种程度上让整个亚洲地区展开了干预汇市的火炬接力。他说，干预汇市在国家间会产生连锁反应。

　　不过日本的干预可能不像其它亚洲国家那么成功。国际清算银行认为，考虑到日圆市场日成交量5680亿美元，是全球成交量最大的汇市之一，日本干预汇市的任务更加艰巨。

　　弗林特说，日本以外的亚洲国家干预汇市之所以能够行之有效，是因为它们的汇市力量相对较小，流通性不是特别高，所以央行的干预反而可以产生较大影响。

　　In launching its fight against the strong yen, Japan has joined a slew of other Asian governments facing a common currency predicament: competition with China.

　　While attention was focused on the yen's 15-year high against the dollar as Japan began currency intervention Wednesday, the yen was also near its highest point against the Chinese yuan in a decade.

　　That puts Japan--an advanced economy--in the same boat as such export-dependent economies as South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan, which compete and trade with China and find it necessary to routinely intervene in currency markets to adjust their currencies, taking the yuan into account.

　　'China is the common denominator in that it's the largest competitor and in some cases the largest trading partner in Asia,' said Simon Flint, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Nomura in Singapore.

　　When China allows its currency to appreciate, as it has in the past few days, that gives room to other Asian economies to tolerate currency rises. The yuan ended trading Thursday in Shanghai at 6.7248 per dollar, its strongest close since the currency began trading in 1994, after China's central bank set the reference rate for daily trading at a fresh high for the fifth straight day. The yuan has risen 1.5% against the dollar since June.

　　In reality, Asia's economies outside China have seen their currencies rise in anticipation of, rather than in reaction to, China's currency moves. Since China signaled a change in its foreign-exchange policy on June 19, investors have sent money into other Asian currencies, hoping to ride the currency wave higher, even as the yuan has stayed mostly still.

　　South Korea, Thailand and Singapore have all seen their currencies rise about 3% against the yuan since the June announcement, exacerbating worries about export competitiveness. All three, in addition to Taiwan, have been active in currency markets, buying dollars and pushing their reserves to record or near-record levels. Asian countries outside China hold $2.9 trillion in reserves. China has $2.5 trillion.

　　These countries have decided to intervene, according to analysts, in part because not doing so would cause their currencies to rise and make them less competitive in relation to China. In Japan's case, China and the U.S. are the most important trade partners, with China receiving 18% of its exports while the U.S. accounts for 16%. While Japan had been staying out of currency intervention in line with general agreement among Group of Seven countries, some economists see it as one of Tokyo's few options to protect its fragile economic recovery.

　　Asia thrived over the past decade by relying on export-oriented growth aided by depressed exchange rates. Moves are under way in some Asian countries to boost domestic demand and reduce their reliance on exports, but the impact is still limited despite widespread agreement that such a shift is necessary.

　　'Relative exchange rates do matter for competitiveness,' Flint said. 'In Asia in general, export-led growth has been very successful, and it's difficult to ignore a winning formula.'

　　China has also affected Asian countries' currency-policy decisions by accelerating the diversification of is currency reserves out of the dollar and into the currencies of its neighbors. While China keeps a tight wrap on the composition of its holdings, South Korea and Japan have reported in recent months sharply increased buying by China of government debt in their currencies.

　　That's put pressure on those currencies to rise, and raised the political temperature in Asia.

　　'Inflows from China's accumulation of Japanese government debt have likely contributed to yen appreciation,' Callum Henderson, global head of Standard Chartered PLC's (STAN.LN) foreign-exchange research, wrote in a research note. He said while China has become more flexible on the yuan and allowed some appreciation, by moving into Japanese bonds, China has opened 'a new chapter in the countries' diplomatic and financial relationship.'

　　HSBC Holdings PLC (HBC) currency strategist Richard Yetsenga figures other Asian central banks have, like China, moved reserves accumulated during currency intervention from dollars into yen, in a way passing the intervention torch around the region. 'Intervention from one country is begetting intervention in another,' he said.

　　Japan may not be as successful as other Asian interventionists, however. It has a much bigger fight on its hands given that the yen market is among the world's largest, with daily turnover of $568 billion, according to the Bank of International Settlements.

　　'The reason intervention is reasonably effective in Asia outside Japan is because of relative market power. They are not particularly liquid markets, so central bank intervention can have a disproportionately large impact,' said Nomura's Flint.