中国难以承受新的国际危机（双语）

　　Three years on from the collapse in global demand at the end of 2008, China's capacity to withstand a second slump is constrained by continued reliance on exports and investment as drivers of growth.

　　2008年年底国际需求的崩溃已经过去三年，中国仍旧依靠出口和投资来推动经济增长，这就限制了它承受国际需求第二次突然下滑的能力。

　　A two-speed recovery, with China and other emerging markets expanding at a rapid clip while advanced economies limp out of recession, has fostered a belief that China is inoculated from the global economic flu. That is only partly true.

　　发达经济体蹒跚走出衰退的时候，中国和其他新兴市场却在高速扩张。这种不同速度的复苏让人相信，中国已经打了预防针，国际经济的感冒传染不到它身上来。这种想法只对了一部分。

　　Exports as a percentage of China's gross domestic product have fallen, from 35% in 2007 to 27% in 2010. But that still is high. And exports to the U.S. and European Union still are equal to 10% of GDP, from 13% in 2007. If global trade again takes a hit, the impact on China will be almost as marked as it was in 2008.

　　出口占中国国内生产总值(GDP)的比重已经从2007年的35%降至2010年的27%，但仍然很高。对美国、欧盟出口占GDP的比重已较2007年的13%有所下降，但仍有10%。如果国际贸易再次遭受冲击，中国受到的影响差不多将有2008年那么严重。

　　In a positive development, the share of domestic value added in China's exports has continued to creep up. That reflects mainland manufacturers' increased technical competence and reduced reliance on parts imported from abroad. But with China producing more itself, rather than acting merely as a link in the global supply chain, the impact of a slowdown in foreign demand is greater. The latest forecast from UBS China economist Wang Tao envisages a 1.1 percentage point drag on GDP growth from net exports in 2012.

　　Bloomberg News出口占中国GDP的比重依然较高。图为8月18日，东京一个码头的工人在中海集装箱运输有限公司的集装箱上。一个好消息是，中国出口的国内附加值比重一直在持续缓慢上升。这反映出内地制造企业技术实力的提升，及其对进口零部件依赖度的减少。但在中国更多地自行生产、而不只是充当全球供应链一环的情况下，外部需求放缓会造成更大的影响。瑞银(UBS)中国经济学家汪涛的最新预测是，净出口将给2012年GDP增长速度带来1.1个百分点的拖累。

　　Meanwhile, China's real weakness is that the gap in GDP left by retreating exports has been filled not by a sustainable increase in domestic consumption but by more investment. Consumption has continued to increase at a rapid clip. Retail sales in 2010, for example, rose 15% in real terms. But household consumption is starting from a low base, and with even faster growth in investment, its share in GDP has dipped to 33% in 2010 from 35% in 2007.

　　与此同时，中国真正的弱点在于，填补出口回落在GDP中所留缺口的，不是国内消费的可持续增长，而是投资的增加。消费一直在持续快速增长。比如2010年零售额在扣除物价上涨因素后增长了15%。但家庭消费起点低，而投资增速比消费还要快，所以消费在GDP中的比重已经从2007年的35%下降到2010年的33%。

　　Contrast that with investment, where breakneck acceleration in infrastructure spending in 2009 and real-estate construction in 2010 and 2011 has meant the contribution to GDP increased from 39% in 2007 to 46% in 2010. Diminishing returns from more roads and railways and continued efforts to constrain a real-estate bubble mean the scope for investment to step into the breach a second time if foreign demand disappoints is limited.

　　相比之下，由于2009年基础设施支出、2010年和2011年房地产建设惊人提速，投资对GDP的贡献已从2007年的39%增至2010年的46%。新建公路和铁路回报越来越少，政府又持续采取措施遏制楼市泡沫，所以如果外部需求不及预期，再次让投资填补空缺的空间是有限的。

　　China faces the possibility of a second downturn with its fate still wedded to that of the West.

　　中国面临着再度陷入低迷的可能，其命运仍与西方紧密相连。