散户：香港IPO的翻云覆雨者（双语）

　　In the midst of the most choppy markets since the global financial crisis, companies seeking to list in Hong Kong have to deal with one more unpredictable factor: the retail investor.

　　在眼下这个自全球金融危机以来最动荡的市场上，想要在香港上市的公司还得面对一个不可预知的因素：散户投资者。

　　In May, Milan Station Holdings Ltd., a small Hong Kong company that sells second-hand luxury handbags, captured investors' imagination─and money─with a US$40 million initial public offering whose retail portion was a record 2,179 times oversubscribed. The stock soared 66% on its debut, although it has given up nearly half of those gains since then.

　　AFP/Getty Images位于香港湾仔和金钟区的摩天大楼。今年5月，香港一家名为米兰站控股有限公司（Milan Station Holdings Ltd.，简称：米兰站）的二手奢侈品手袋小型销售商成功满足了投资者的想象力，并获得了他们的资金，其面向散户投资者的IPO部分获得了2,179倍的超额认购，共计募集资金4,000万美元。其上市交易首日股价飙升66%，但自那之后其股价跌去了近一半的上述涨幅。

　　But only a few weeks later, retail investors didn't take up all the shares made available to them in the US$2.47 billion IPO of luxury group Prada SpA, despite heavy promotional efforts that included a glitzy fashion show for the city's elite. Shares barely rose on their debut but have since risen steadily and closed Monday up 13% from the HK$39.50 IPO price.

　　仅仅几周后，在奢侈品集团普拉达（Prada SpA）总额高达24.7亿美元的IPO中，尽管有发行方密集的推销攻势（其中包括一场为香港精英举办的令人炫目的时装秀），但散户投资者并没有悉数买进面向他们发售的股份。其上市交易首日股价几乎没有上涨，随后却稳步上升，其周一收盘价高出39.50港元的IPO发行价13%。

　　Mom-and-pop investors are helping to make or break an IPO's reputation as 'hot' in Hong Kong, one of the busiest markets for new listings in the last few years and one that is increasingly attracting companies from outside the city and China.

　　在火热的香港市场，散户投资者对一家公司IPO的声誉来说，可以说是举足轻重。过去几年来，香港是全球新股上市最繁忙的市场之一，香港市场也正日益吸引来自香港和中国内地以外的公司。

　　But their presence isn't always welcomed by bankers, who say outsized demand and the tendency of those investors to quickly sell can make their job harder.

　　但这些公司的出现并不总是受到投资银行家的欢迎。投资银行家说，过于庞大的需求以及散户投资者倾向于尽快卖出令他们的工作更加难做。

　　'Retail investors could add more volatility to the deal; the majority of institutional investors tend to hold for a longer term,' said David Suen, co-head, Asia ex-Japan equity capital market of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., one of the banks in charge of Tibet 5100 Water Resources Holdings Ltd.'s recent US$177 million Hong Kong IPO.

　　摩根大通（J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.）亚洲（不含日本）股权资本市场联席主管David Suen说，散户投资者可能增加交易的波动性，多数机构投资者倾向较长期持有股票。摩根大通是负责西藏5100水资源控股有限公司（Tibet 5100 Water Resources Holdings Ltd.，简称：西藏5100）在香港1.77亿美元IPO的簿记行之一。

　　Part of the power of the retail investor is because local regulators, uniquely, require that 10% of every IPO be set aside for the average investor, unless the issuer applies for a waiver to reduce that amount in favor of institutional investors like mutual funds, pension funds and hedge funds.

　　散户投资者所以能有这样的“权力”，部分原因是香港的监管机构有一个很独特的规定，即每一宗IPO交易都要留出10%的部分给普通投资者，除非发行方为了利于共同基金、养老基金和对冲基金等机构投资者申请豁免，才能降低预留给散户投资者的认购比例。

　　In the U.S., by contrast, a deal could go entirely to institutional investors.

　　相比之下，在美国，机构投资者可以100%认购一宗IPO交易所发行的股份。

　　Moreover, if demand from Hong Kong retail investors exceed certain levels, a rule known as a clawback requires that they be given a greater percentage of the offering. At its most extreme, if retail subscription is 100 times or more the number of shares offered to them, they must then receive half of the offering. According to Dealogic, 29 Hong Kong IPOs in 2010 and 2011 have had so much demand that the maximum clawback was triggered.

　　此外，如果香港散户投资者的需求超过某一水平，一项名为“回拨”（clawback）的机制要求发行方提高散户投资者的认购比例。在最极端的情况，如果散户投资者的认购量是最初分配给其的股份数目的100倍及以上，那么散户投资者必须获得此次新股发行数目的一半。据数据追踪商Dealogic透露，在2010年和2011年，共有29宗香港市场的IPO出现了散户踊跃认购的情况，以致回拨机制被触发。

　　Finally, Hong Kong investors have a reputation for being quick to flip stocks. One reason is that they often buy on margin, fronting just 10% of the value and relying on the brokerage to finance the remaining 90%. Investors who receive shares worth more than their 10% deposit may opt to sell shares to avoid stumping up more money.

　　最后，香港投资者也因股票换手率很高而出名。其中一个原因是，他们往往凭保证金购买股票：投资者只需出占股价10%的资金，尾款由经纪商垫付。买入股票的投资者只要收益超过其自付的10%的保证金，他们可能会选择卖出股票，以避免支付更多的资金。

　　As a result, bankers say they have a harder time picturing how IPOs that get heavy retail demand will do after listing.

　　因此，投资银行家说，他们更加难以预测散户投资者认购比例很高的股票在上市交易以后的表现。