避险情绪推动金价屡创新高（双语）

　　Gold continued its upward march in a time of global financial tumult, closing above $1,500 an ounce Thursday for the first time as investors seek safe haven in the metal.

　　在全球金融市场动荡不安、投资者寻求金属类投资品做避风港时，黄金继续保持上行趋势，周四收盘价首次突破每盎司1,500美元的大关。

　　In a remarkable performance for any sort of asset, gold has notched a record high every day this week─on days when investors were alternately gloomy and optimistic. On Monday, as stocks swooned after Standard & Poor's warned about the credit rating of the U.S., gold reached a new high. It kept rising on Tuesday and again on Wednesday, as stocks soared on impressive corporate earnings.

　　Getty Images由于一时间过多投资者涌入金市，行情迅速逆转的风险变得越来越大。同股市和债市相比，黄金市场尽管颇受欢迎，但规模相对较小，更容易受投资者情绪波动的影响。本周，黄金每天都会创下新高，对于任何资产来说都可谓表现不凡，而投资者情绪在本周却是悲观与乐观交替出现。周一，标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)对美国信贷评级提出警告，股市大跌，金价创出新高。而随着上市公司财报喜人，美国股市大涨，金价也在周二和周三持续上扬。

　　On Thursday, gold rose $4.90 an ounce to $1,503.20, another nominal record high and its first settlement above $1,500. Gold is up for five straight weeks, and has gained 5.8% so far this year. Gold will not trade in the U.S. today, Good Friday.

　　周四，黄金上涨4.90美元，至每盎司1,503.20美元，再创名义价格的新高，收盘价首次升穿1,500美元。金价连续五周上涨，今年截至目前已累计上涨5.8%。复活节前的周五是耶稣受难日(Good Friday)，美国市场将因此休市一天。

　　The reason for gold's ability to do well in any market lies in its recent role as a haven from concerns about the dollar, inflation and shocks in Europe, the Middle East and Japan.

　　黄金之所以能在全球市场表现良好，原因在于它在投资者担心美元贬值、通胀高企及欧洲、中东和日本等地的问题对经济带来冲击时，发挥了避险功能。

　　"Gold has more than one hat right now," said Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock, a division of MF Global. "What people are seeing around the globe is that there's really nowhere to hide right now. When one camp cools down on buying gold, you are seeing another camp come in."

　　全球曼氏金融(MF Global)旗下Lind-Waldock的资深市场策略师克洛普费恩斯坦(Adam Klopfenstein)说，黄金现在扮演的角色不只一个，人们放眼全世界，发现实在没有可以避险的地方了，所以对于黄金的买入总是此消彼长。

　　Gold's rise is a broader reflection of a lack of confidence in governments' abilities to sort out fiscal problems.

　　广义而言，金价上涨反映出投资者对政府解决财政问题的能力缺乏信心。

　　Investors are concerned not only about the value of the U.S. dollar, a worry accentuated by S&P's decision to downgrade the U.S. debt outlook. They also are concerned about the outlook for the euro, as the sovereign debt crisis in Europe worsens, and the yen, which faces hurdles as the Japanese economy recovers from its recent earthquake and tsunami.

　　投资者不光是担心美元贬值(这种担心被标准普尔下调美国国债评级展望而有所放大)，还担心欧元和日圆的前景。担心欧元是因为欧洲主权债务危机不断恶化，而日圆则是由于日本经济要从前不久的地震和海啸中复苏过来，日圆升值面临困难。

　　Gold is seen as a lasting store of value, which doesn't erode like that of currencies.

　　黄金被看作是有持久存储价值的投资品，不像货币那样容易贬值。

　　"If you have two major currencies looking a little bit wobbly, some investors and speculators put their money into gold," said Barry M. Wainstein, Global Head of Foreign Exchange & Precious Metals at Scotia Capital, a subsidiary of Bank of Nova Scotia.

　　加拿大丰业银行(Bank of Nova Scotia)旗下Scotia Capital的外汇及贵金属业务全球主管温斯坦(Barry M. Wainstein)说，如果两种主要货币的汇率看似有点不稳，一些投资者和投机者就会把手里的钱换成黄金。

　　Some currency traders have sold their positions and bought physical gold recently, he said. As the metal barrels higher, investors of all stripes are jumping in. And buyers are increasingly taking possession of gold, instead of trading futures contracts.

　　温斯坦说，一些外汇交易商近来卖掉了头寸，买入了实物黄金。随着金价急速上升，各路投资者均纷纷加入到购入黄金的行列中来。买家开始越来越多地买入黄金，而不是买卖期货合约。

　　Everyone from university endowments to small individual investors has been buying bars and coins. Operators of storage vaults are scrambling to find more space to shelter the bullion, and are stepping up hiring to deal with the extra work load.

　　无论是大学捐款基金还是小打小闹的散户投资者，所有机构和个人都在买入金条和金币。金库运营商正在相互争抢，希望找到更多可以存放黄金的空间，并且开始大力增加人手，以处理增加的工作量。

　　The metal has rallied despite the interest-rate hikes by the European Central Bank and the People's Bank of China in early April. A higher interest rate means a higher return on cash, and typically is negative for gold, which yields nothing. However, gold investors took the rate increases in stride.

　　尽管欧洲央行(European Central Bank)和中国央行在4月初分别加了息，但金价的升势却并未打住。加息意味着现金回报率上升，对黄金一般来说是利空消息，不会给黄金投资带来任何收益。然而这次，黄金投资者却对加息表现得气定神闲。

　　Gold has scaled new heights in all currencies. In dollars, gold rose 1.2% this week, in euro terms it rose 0.9%, and in pounds it is up 0.5%.

　　无论以何种货币计算，金价都已创下新高。本周，美元计价的黄金上涨1.2%，欧元计价的上涨0.9%，英镑计价的上涨0.5%。

　　John Hummel, chief investment officer with AIS Futures Management LLC, which oversees $500 million in assets, said he is "extremely bullish on gold." About 80% of AIS's $125 million Tactical Asset Allocation Portfolio is in gold.

　　打理着5亿美元资产的期货管理公司AIS Futures Management LLC首席投资长赫梅尔(John Hummel)说，他对黄金极为看好，并说该公司价值1.25亿美元的策略性资产配置组合(Tactical Asset Allocation Portfolio)中，有约80%投资的都是黄金。

　　His primary argument: Central banks and private investors are increasingly turning to gold as an alternative store of value as paper currencies continue to fall. As of the end of March, central banks around the world held 27,219.8 metric tons of gold, or 11.3% of their total reserve holdings, according to the World Gold Council. The rest is held in the form of reserve currencies such as the U.S. dollar.

　　他的主要论点是：随着纸币币值继续下跌，各国央行和私人投资者正日益转向黄金作为价值储藏的替代方式。世界黄金协会（World Gold Council）数据显示，截至3月底，全球各国央行共计持有27,219.8公吨的黄金，占其总外汇储备的11.3%。其余部分是以美元等储备货币的形式持有的。

　　"At some point, foreign holders will refuse to accept greater amounts of U.S. debt or the dollar as reserve currency," Mr. Hummel said in a note to investors.

　　赫梅尔在一份报告中告诉投资者，某些时候，外国央行会拒绝增持美国国债，或拒绝将美元作为储备货币。

　　Some people are concerned by the fact that gold is on everyone's buy list.

　　有些人则担心眼下每个人都想买黄金的情况。

　　The greater risk for gold at this stage is not higher interest rates, but growth and stability, said Daniel Brebner, head of metals research for Deutsche Bank in London.

　　德意志银行驻伦敦的金属研究部主管布雷布纳（Daniel Brebner）说，目前这个阶段黄金面临的更大风险不是利率走高，而是经济增长和形势稳定。

　　Gold could lose allure if investors conclude that the world has returned to a benign investment environment, where growth is sustainable without extraordinary government support. If that happens, he said, "the reasons for investors moving into gold start to reverse."

　　如果投资者断定全球投资环境恢复良性，即不需政府额外支持就能实现可持续增长，那么黄金可能失去吸引力。布雷布纳说，如果出现这种情况，投资者涌入黄金的理由就会开始逆转。

　　Because so many have piled into the market so quickly, the risk of a swift reversal becomes ever greater. The gold market, while popular, is relatively small compared to stocks and bonds, making it more sensitive to sentiment swings.

　　由于一时间过多投资者涌入金市，行情迅速逆转的风险变得越来越大。同股市和债市相比，黄金市场尽管颇受欢迎，但规模相对较小，更容易受投资者情绪波动的影响。

　　Demand in India, the largest consumer of gold, is likely to fade once its festival season ends with the arrival of the monsoons in June, said Jeffrey Rhodes, global head of precious metals at INTL Commodities, a commodities broker.

　　大宗商品经纪商INTL Commodities全球贵金属业务负责人罗兹（Jeffrey Rhodes）说，一旦节日季结束、6月的雨季到来，全球最大的黄金消费国印度的需求有可能降低。

　　Mr. Rhodes still thinks gold will move higher later this year. And some say gold has much further to rise. GFMS Ltd., a London-based metals consultancy, predicts gold will reach $1,600 an ounce before the end of this year.

　　罗兹仍然认为今年下半年金价将进一步走高，也有人说黄金还有很大的上涨空间。总部位于伦敦的金属顾问公司GFMS Ltd.预计年底前金价将达到1,600美元一盎司。

　　The University of Texas Investment Management Company recently converted all its gold futures holdings into physical bullion, worth about $1 billion.

　　美国德克萨斯大学投资管理公司（University of Texas Investment Management Company）最近将持有的全部黄金期货转换成了实物黄金，价值大约10亿美元。

　　"It's a very conservative hedge" against some low-probability scenarios, such as the debasement of a major currency, said Bruce Zimmerman, chief executive officer of the $26.6-billion fund. The Texas fund has 20.7 tons of gold stored in a New York vault.

　　该公司首席执行长齐默尔曼（Bruce Zimmerman）说，这是针对主要货币贬值等小概率事件做出的非常保守的对冲。德克萨斯大学的这家投资管理公司的资金规模为266亿美元，在纽约的一座保险库里存有20.7吨黄金。

　　In 2010, total physical bullion investment soared 66% to 880 metric tons, says GFMS, and the trend looks set to be repeated this year.

　　GFMS说，2010年，实物黄金投资总计飙升66%，至880吨。今年似乎还将重现这一趋势。

　　"These are long-term holdings," said Adrian Ash, head of research at BullionVault, an online service for private investors to trade precious metals. Physical holdings are farther from the financial markets and less prone to short-term sell-offs.

　　BullionVault 研究部负责人阿什（Adrian Ash）说，这些（实物黄金）都是长期持有的。长期持有的实物黄金在金融市场上并不活跃，很少出现短期抛售的现象。BullionVault为私人投资者交易贵金属提供在线服务。

　　In Oklahoma City, bullion dealer American Precious Metals Exchange has seen a surge of orders for gold bars and coins. In the past year, the company has doubled its work force and tripled its phone connections, said Michael Haynes, chief executive officer. To warehouse more gold, it had to double its vaulting space located underground in a former Federal Reserve building in downtown Oklahoma City in November.

　　在俄克拉荷马城，黄金交易机构美国贵金属交易所（American Precious Metals Exchange）购买金条和金币的订单激增。据该交易所首席执行长海恩斯（Michael Haynes）介绍，在过去的一年，该所增加了一倍人手，电话数量是原来的三倍。为了装下更多的黄金，去年11月该交易所将位于俄克拉荷马下城的前地区联储大楼下的金库扩大了一倍。

　　"All of those people that missed out buying gold...are kind of re-energized and jumping in," said Robert Higgins, chief executive of First State Depository LLC, a Wilmington, Delaware-based storage operator. He has hired three people in the past six weeks and is considering starting a night shift to handle all the inquiries.

　　位于特拉华州威尔明顿（Wilmington）专门提供贵金属存储空间的First State Depository LLC 的首席执行长希金斯（Robert Higgins）说，所有那些错过买入黄金的人现在又激动地跃跃欲试。过去六周里希金斯招聘了三个人，目前他正考虑是否要开始增加夜班以处理所有的咨询。