中国还是世界工厂吗（双语）

　　China may be famous as the workshop of the world, but one Hong Kong lingerie- maker has found Thailand a more alluring destination, as companies shift production to cheaper countries.

　　或许中国是远近闻名的世界工厂，但随着制造业企业将生产线向成本更低廉的国家转移，一家香港内衣制造商发现泰国更具吸引力。

　　Top Form International, which supplies companies such as Walmart from its south China factories, has been forced to face a new reality in China as workers demand higher wages.

　　黛丽斯国际有限公司(Top Form International)一直从该公司位于华南的工厂向沃尔玛(Walmart)等公司供货，但随着工人对工资的要求越来越高，这家公司开始被迫面对中国的新现实。

　　Sitting in his Hong Kong office across the border from Guangdong province, Michael Austin, Top Form’s chief financial officer, says the company is seeing wage increases of 20 percent every year. “China’s policy is double wages in five years. We expect it to be shorter than that.”

　　黛丽斯首席财务官迈克尔?奥斯汀(Michael Austin)坐在与广东省一界之隔的香港办公室里说道，公司发现工资每年都要上涨20%。“中国的政策是五年内工资翻番，我们估计速度会比那更快。”

　　After the minimum wage in Shenzhen, the special economic zone just across the border from Hong Kong, was raised from Rmb1,100 ($172) to Rmb1,320 in April, the company speeded up plans to reduce its sewing workforce to 400, down from 1,000 a few years ago. The Chinese government also increased manufacturing wages nationwide following a series of suicides at the electronics contract manufacturer Foxconn.

　　毗邻香港的经济特区深圳今年4月份将最低工资从1100元人民币（合172美元）提高到1320元，随后这家公司便加速了裁减缝纫工的计划，从几年前的1000人压缩至400人。电子产品代工制造商富士康(Foxconn)发生连环自杀事件后，中国政府也在全国范围内提高了制造业工资。

　　Top Form’s bigger challenge, however, is China’s demographic change. The cohort of young workers entering the workforce is declining every year. Selective female foetus abortions because of a one-child policy and preference for boys has also created the perverse effect of fewer women working in factories. Owners in southern China report the ratio of factory workers is 60:40 male to female whereas it used to be predominantly female.

　　然而黛丽斯面临的更大挑战是中国人口结构的变化。每年加入劳动力大军的年轻工人越来越少。由于独生子女政策以及对男孩的普遍偏好，而将女性胎儿选择性堕胎的做法，产生了一个反常的现象——工厂中的女工越来越少。华南地区的企业主报告说，现在工厂工人的男女比例为60:40，而过去女性曾占据主导。

　　Last week, the UBS economist Jonathan Anderson released a report after crunching import data from the US and European Union for the first half of 2011. He found China’s light-manufacturing share is starting to decline from above 50 percent to about 48 percent. Beneficiaries include Bangladesh (up 19 percent in exports to the US) and Vietnam (16 percent).

　　上周，瑞银(UBS)经济学家乔纳森·安德森(Jonathan Anderson)分析计算了2011年上半年美国和欧盟的进口数据后，发布了一份报告。他发现中国轻工制造业的份额开始下滑，从曾经的50%强减少到了48%。而受益者包括孟加拉国（对美国出口增加了19%）和越南（16%）。

　　The first half of 2011 “looks a pretty convincing turning point”, says Mr Anderson of a shift in labour-intensive manufacturing to south-east Asia. India and the Philippines, by contrast, which should be “natural destinations” for labour-intensive investment appear to be sitting out the action, he says.

　　安德森谈及劳动密集型制造业向东南亚转移时说，2011年上半年“似乎是一个很令人信服的转折点”。他表示，与此形成反差的是，本应成为劳动密集型投资“天然目的地”的印度和菲律宾，在这个过程中却成了旁观者。

　　For Guangdong, China’s most industrialised and wealthiest province, this migration of low-paying jobs is what provincial leaders have been advocating for a couple of years. The province lowered its growth rate target to 8 percent annually for the current five-year plan that runs from 2011-2015. The province’s governor, Huang Huahua, and the party secretary of Guangdong, Wang Yang, have repeatedly stressed the need for polluting industries to move out in favour of more technology-intensive industries.

　　对于中国工业化程度最高也最富裕的省份广东省而言，这种低收入工作岗位的迁出正好符合省政府领导多年来的倡议。广东省在十二五规划中，将经济增长目标降低到了每年8%。广东省省长黄华华、省委书记汪洋曾反复强调必须将污染产业迁出，加强技术密集型产业的发展。

　　Michael Enright, a professor of business at the University of Hong Kong, says this may be the first time in history when a government has actively sought to turn its back on its early industrial past. This is broadly Beijing’s goal as well, but it is harder to do at national level because the workforce in interior provinces is not as skilled as in Guangdong.

　　香港大学(University of Hong Kong)商学院教授迈克尔?恩莱特(Michael Enright)表示，一省政府积极寻求告别早期工业发展方式，这可能是历史上的第一次。中国政府的目标也大体相同，但要在全国层面实现这种转变更加困难，因为内陆省份的工人不像广东省的工人那样技术熟练。

　　For an insight into how quickly manufacturing of low-end apparel and footwear is starting to move from southern China, half-yearly financial results from the global sourcing company Li & Fung also provided an indicator last month. Li & Fung sources everything from T-shirts and anoraks to furniture and beauty products for western retailers such Walmart Stores and Toys R Us.

　　要深入了解服装和鞋类等低端制造业在以多快的速度撤离华南地区，全球采购企业利丰(Li & Fung)上月发布的半年财报也提供了指引。利丰为沃尔玛和玩具反斗城(Toys R Us)等西方零售商采购商品，涵盖从T恤和风帽夹克到家具和美容用品等各种类别。

　　The company’s chief executive, Bruce Rockowitz, unveiled a set of numbers that in effect heralded a new world order in clothing, furniture and footwear manufacturing. Sourcing from Bangladesh by the US$16bn behemoth had risen by as much as 52% while Turkey and Indonesia had experienced increases of 20 percent or more.

　　利丰首席执行官乐裕民(Bruce Rockowitz)披露的一组数据，实际上预示了服装、家具和鞋类制造业将迎来全新的世界秩序。这家市值高达160亿美元的企业在孟加拉国的采购额增长了52%，同时来自土耳其和印尼的采购也增加了20%或更多。

　　Roland Lee, in an attempt to ensure his company, Hilford, stays profitable in the competitive business of making jeans, has reduced order sizes that Hilford takes on to about 2,000 pieces. He has also moved upmarket by increasing customisation for clients such as Armani Exchange. Rising cotton prices of more than 100 percent last year coupled with wage increases has prompted competitors to move production to India, he reports.

　　李京璞(Roland Lee)拥有一家生产牛仔服装的公司熙福制衣(Hilford)。为了让公司在激烈的竞争中保持盈利，他将承接的订单规模削减到2000件左右。他还转战高端市场，增加了为Armani Exchange等客户定制产品的业务。李京璞表示，去年棉花价格上涨一倍多，加上工人薪资上涨，已经促使竞争对手将工厂搬到了印度。

　　The high reject rate on apparel from India makes him wary, however. Mr Lee continues to manufacture out of Shenzhen, which also boasts 24-hour customs clearance at its border with Hong Kong.

　　然而，印度生产服装的高废品率让他有些警惕。李京璞仍然将生产放在深圳，这里与香港之间有24小时直达关口。

　　Similarly, for Top Form expensive lingerie and bras will continue to be made at Nanhai in Guangdong because of higher workforce productivity. Many suppliers are also clustered nearby, in an area nicknamed Bra City.

　　同样，黛丽斯将继续在广东南海市生产高端内衣和胸罩，因为这里的工人生产率更高。在这个绰号“内衣之都”的地区，周围聚集着许多供应商。

　　China’s increasingly first- world infrastructure, higher productivity and huge size mean it will continue to have a commanding share of manufacturing for jeans, clothes and toys as Li & Fung’s presentation last month revealed. The volume of production by the company’s suppliers in China grew by 30 percent in the first half of this year with more suppliers moving to lower-cost interior provinces. Mr Rockowitz quips that the answer to “what next“ in global manufacturing – is China.

　　中国日渐接近世界水平的基础设施、更高的生产率和巨大的人口规模意味着它将继续在牛仔服、服装和玩具制造业占据遥遥领先的份额，正如利丰上月公告所揭示的那样。今年上半年利丰在华供应商的生产规模增长了30%，同时有更多供应商转移到了成本更低的内陆省份。乐裕民调侃道，要问全球制造业的“下一个目的地”在哪里，答案还是中国。