中国软着陆难以实现 意外恐难避免（双语）

　　If there's one thing investors think they can be sure of, it's that China will always be our rock. Europe and the US economy may be head cases half the time, but China's never going to let us down.

　　如果投资者觉得自己对什么东西很有把握，那就是中国将始终是我们的希望。欧美经济或许是经常抽风，但中国永远不会让我们失望。

　　That's why, if China tightens policy here and there, as it did yet again this weekend, it's simply engineering a soft landing for its still-muscular economy, keeping inflation at bay, and all that. Nothing to see here, nothing to worry about.

　　Getty所以，如果中国像这个周末再一次所做的那样，随处收紧政策，那也只是在让其仍旧强健有力的经济实现软着陆、把通货膨胀控制住，除此以外别无其他。该干嘛干嘛去吧，没有什么好担心的。

　　Maybe we should pay closer attention, warns Michael Darda of MKM Partners:

　　交易与研究公司MKM Partners的达尔达(Michael Darda)说，或许我们应该观察得更仔细一些。

　　China looks like an accident waiting to happen, in our view. Chinese policymakers have decided to broaden the base of financial institutions required to comply with 21.5% reserve requirements, which will effectuate a further tightening of liquidity. A collapsing term structure of interest rates and a sharp slowing in both narrow and broad liquidity suggest this tightening process is well underway.

　　在我们看来，中国就像是一场等着发生的事故。中国的政策制定者已经决定要求更多金融机构遵守21.5%的存款准备金率，这将造成流动性进一步收紧。利率期限结构的崩溃，狭义和广义流动性的急剧放缓，说明这一收紧过程早已开始。

　　We would also point out that China’s EMBI debt spreads widened to 218 bps last week from a 2010 low of 26 bps. Although many believe China’s policymakers will simply “flip the switch back on” like they did with a massive monetized fiscal binge in 2009, we would suggest they cannot do so without creating further imbalances that will have to be unwound down the road.

　　我们还要指出，中国债券相对于新兴市场债券指数(EMBI)的息差已从2010年低点26个基点扩大至上周的218个基点。虽然很多人相信中国的政策制定者会像2009年实施大规模货币化财政刺激一样轻松地“重新打开电闸”，我们还是认为，如果这样做，他们不可能不造成进一步失衡。

　　The Federal Reserve was only able to manage one soft landing (1995) in nearly six decades of post-war monetary policymaking. Yet, somehow, many believe Chinese policymakers with much cruder tools and a far less sophisticated financial system will be able to unwind a decade-long liquidity and credit boom seamlessly. We wouldn’t count on it.

　　美联储在战后接近60年的货币政策制定中，只在1995年成功地实现了一次软着陆。但不知什么缘故，很多人相信中国的政策制定者将能够不出丝毫差错地纠正一场为期10年的流动性与信贷膨胀，何况他们的政策工具粗糙生硬得多，其金融系统也远远不及美国的成熟。我们不会指望它。