中国房地产开发商下半年面临挑战（双语）

　　Want to buy a piece of Chinese property sector heaven? Now could be your chance.

　　想从中国房地产行业买一块“天堂”？现在可能就是个机会。

　　Shui On Land, in common with other developers, is battening down the hatches for a tough second half. And it is planning to sell parts of its prestigious Tiandi projects─Tiandi translates as “heaven and earth.”

　　瑞安房地产(Shui On Land)和其他开发商一样，正在为下半年的艰难日子做准备。它正打算部分出售其知名的“天地”项目。

　　China's developers came into 2011 with significant inventory on their books. Strong investment mismatched with weak sales in the first half have only added to the total. Jinsong Du, property analyst at Credit Suisse, says that a low sell through rate for developers in the first half means that they will be working overtime to shift unsold property in the final months of the year.

　　2011年刚开始的时候，中国开发商账上的存货不少。上半年的大规模投资加上销售的疲软，让存货总量只增不减。瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)房地产分析师杜劲松说，由于上半年售出率低，开发商将在今年剩下的几个月内加班加点地推销未售楼盘。

　　The problem of oversupply is set to be compounded by more property coming on line. Vanke, China's largest developer, has said it has significantly more property coming to market in September and October than the average in the first eight months of the year. That is replicated across other developers.

　　供给过剩的问题势必因为新的楼盘入市而加重。中国最大开发商万科(Vanke)曾说，它在9到10月份推向市场的楼盘数量将明显高于今年前八个月的平均数量。其他开发商也是这样一种情况。

　　A combination of high inventory, more property coming to market and continued government controls restricting purchases means the mismatch between supply and demand will become even more marked. And this time developers cannot count on credit to tide them over. Bank loans to the real-estate sector fell to $6.5 billion in the second quarter from $25.8 billion in the first quarter.

　　高库存、新入市楼盘以及政府限制购房的持续调控，意味着供需矛盾将越发明显。而这一次开发商无法指望用信贷来渡过难关。发放给房地产行业的银行贷款，已从一季度的258亿美元下降到二季度的65亿美元。

　　An expansion in finance from trust companies, and a move to issue bonds offshore made up part of the shortfall. But now the regulators are moving to tighten access to both alternative sources of finance.

　　通过扩大从信托公司融资、在离岸市场发行债券，开发商填补了部分空缺。但现在监管机构正在采取措施收紧这两个融资渠道。

　　A policy reversal remains a possibility. Developers are hoping that a fading global recovery will dent the government's resolve to control prices, and speculators will be allowed back into the market to buoy demand. But Beijing appears determined to keep controls in place, with reports that restrictions on purchases will be extended to a new wave of cities.

　　政策仍有可能逆转。开发商预计，全球复苏之势减弱将会削弱政府控制房价的决心，投机者将获准重回市场以提振需求。但北京似乎已经下定决心继续调控。有报道说，购房限制将扩大到新一批城市。

　　It all adds up to a very challenging environment. Highly leveraged developers operating in the luxury end of the market will be the first to suffer. A high ratio of net debt to equity means the tolerance of developers like Greentown China Holdings Ltd., Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. Ltd, and Shimao Property Holdings Ltd. for weak transaction volumes is limited. That raises the chance that they will be forced to accept lower prices to make sure they can sell properties.

　　这一切都让开发商面临的环境变得更有挑战性。首先受到冲击的将是经营高端房地产的高杠杆开发商。由于净债/股本比率很高，绿城中国控股有限公司(Greentown China Holdings Ltd.)、广州富力地产股份有限公司(Guangzhou R&F Properties Co. Ltd.)和世茂房地产控股有限公司对成交量疲软的容忍度是有限的。这就增加了他们被迫降价、确保能够卖出楼盘的可能性。

　　Valuations for these developers are already low. But an extended stay in purgatory, rather than a quick bounce back to heaven, lies ahead.

　　这些开发商的估值已经很低。但摆在前面的不是马上返回天堂，而是在地狱里继续呆一段时间。