“中国制造”远未接管美国（双语）

　　A rebound in China's trade surplus to $31 billion in July the highest level since January 2009 seems likely to spark a new round of hand-wringing on the iniquities of an undervalued yuan. But before climbing on their soap box, politicians in the U.S. should consider the findings of new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

　　中国7月份贸易顺差回升到315亿美元，达到2009年1月以来的最高水平。这可能引发新一轮有关人民币被不公平低估的歇斯底里抱怨。但在就此问题大抒己见之前，美国政界人士应该考虑一下旧金山联邦储备银行新近一份研究报告中的发现。

　　According to San Francisco Fed senior economist Galina Hale and research advisor Bart Hobijn, the share of Chinese produced goods in U.S. consumption is not nearly as high as is widely believed.

　　Brian Snyder/Reuters在旧金山联邦储备银行高级经济学家海尔（Galina Hale）和研究顾问霍布金（Bart Hobijn）看来，中国制造的商品在美国消费市场中所占份额远没有普遍认为的那么高。

　　Surveying data from the Commerce Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau, the pair finds that a full 88.5% of goods and services consumed by U.S. households is produced domestically. Of the 11.5% that is imported, goods made in China account for barely more than a quarter ─ or 2.7% of total U.S. consumption spending.

　　他们分析美国商务部（Commerce Department）、美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）以及人口普查局（Census Bureau）的调查数据后发现，美国家庭消费的商品和服务中，88.5%是在美国国内生产的。而剩余那11.5%的进口部分中，中国制造商品所占比重勉强超过四分之一，也就是说只占美国总体消费支出的2.7%。

　　Even that overstates the true share of China's imports. The reason? Almost all consumer goods are the product of many hands, and properly accounting for what is made where further reduces the share of “made in China.”

　　就算上面这个数据也夸大了中国输美商品在美国总体消费支出中的占比。原因何在？几乎所有消费品的制造都涉及很多环节，准确统计每一个环节在消费品零售价格中的占比会进一步降低“中国制造”商品在美国总体消费支出中的占比。

　　Hale and Hobijn explain:

　　对此，海尔和霍布金解释道：

　　Obviously, if a pair of sneakers made in China costs $70 in the U.S., not all of that retail price goes to the Chinese manufacturer. In fact, the bulk of the retail price pays for the transportation of the sneakers to the U.S, rent for the store where they are sold, profits for shareholders of the U.S. retailer, and the cost of marketing the sneakers. These costs include the salaries, wages and benefits paid to U.S. workers and managers who staff these operations.

　　显然，如果一双中国制造的运动鞋在美国要卖70美元，这70美元并不全归中国制造商。事实上，零售价的大部分会用来支付把鞋运到美国的运费，运动鞋零售店的租金，给美国零售商股东的分红以及运动鞋的营销成本。这些成本包括向此过程涉及的美国工人和管理人员支付的薪金、工资和福利。

　　The San Francisco Fed's calculations show that on average 36% of the price of imported goods goes to U.S. companies and workers, and for goods imported from China that number is even higher:

　　旧金山联邦储备银行的计算发现，平均来看，进口商品价格的36%流向了美国企业和工人的腰包。对于从中国进口的商品来说，这一比例甚至更高。

　　“On average， of every dollar spent on an item labeled ‘Made in China，’ 55 cents go for services produced in the U.S.，” Ms. Hale and Mr. Hobijn write. “In other words， the U.S. content of “Made in China” is about 55%. The fact that the U.S. content of Chinese goods is much higher than for imports as a whole is mainly due to higher retail and wholesale margins on consumer electronics and clothing than on most other goods and services.”

　　海尔和霍布金写道：在“中国制造”的商品上每花一美元，平均就有55美分流向了美国本土服务业，换句话说，“中国制造”中的美国成分约为55%。中国商品中的美国成分之所以远高于美国总体进口商品中的美国成分，主要是因为消费类电子产品和服装的零售和批发利润要高于大多数商品和服务。

　　It gets more complicated. Chinese made parts also go into the 88.5% of U.S. consumption spending devoted to goods made in the U.S. Adding it all up, the researchers conclude that the total share of “made in China” goods in U.S. household consumption is just 1.9%.

　　现在的问题就更复杂了。美国家庭在美国制造的商品上面的消费支出占总支出的88.5%，但其中也含有“中国制造”。把这些都算上的话，海尔和霍布金得出的结论是，“中国制造”的商品在美国家庭消费中所占的总份额仅为1.9%。

　　What does it all mean? There's good news and there's bad news. The good news is that the China threat that looms so large in U.S. political debate is overstated. China's exports as a share of U.S. consumption might have grown quickly, but they are still a small fraction of the total. U.S. workers and companies are also taking a fair chunk of change from the process.

　　这些数字到底意味着什么呢？答案是：喜忧参半。喜的是，在美国政治争论中显得如此可怕的中国威胁论是言过其实了。中国出口产品在美国消费总量中所占的比例或许增长迅速，但相对整体而言仍微不足道。美国雇员和企业也从中国出口中获取了相当大的利润。

　　The bad news is that hopes of a stronger yuan creating more space for U.S. manufacturers to sell to the domestic market already overplayed appear even less credible. If most of the cost of “made in China” imports actually accrues to U.S. workers and companies, yuan appreciation will have only a limited impact on competitiveness.

　　忧的是，有人以为人民币升值可在美国本土市场为美国制造商创造更大空间供其销售产品(其实早已饱和)，这种期望似乎更不可靠了。如果“中国制造”的进口商品的大部分成本实际上都流向了美国雇员和公司的腰包，那么人民币升值仅会对美国制造商的竞争力产生有限影响。

　　The economic silver lining is that a small share for “made in China” also means a limited impact for China's inflation in pushing prices in the U.S. higher. Hale and Hobijn conclude:

　　从经济学角度看，这种情况的一个好处是，“中国制造”占比较小还意味着中国通胀对推高美国商品价格的影响有限。海尔和霍布金总结道：

　　“China's 2011 inflation rate is close to 5%. If Chinese exporters were to pass through all their domestic inflation to the prices of goods they sell in the U.S., the personal consumption expenditure price index would only increase by 1.9% of this 5%… That would equal a 0.1 percentage point increase in the index.”

　　中国2011年的通胀率接近5%。如果中国出口商将国内通胀全部转嫁到出口至美国的商品价格中，美国的个人消费支出价格指数的增长也只会是这5%当中的1.9%，相当于该指数增加了0.1个百分点。

　　The U.S. might not be able to force China to revalue the yuan, but at least they will escape the inflationary consequences of China's super-charged growth.

　　美国可能无法逼迫中国重估人民币，但他们至少可以躲过中国超速增长产生的通胀恶果。