中国地下钱庄响警报（双语）

　　Much attention has centred on the ballooning debts owed by local governments in China to state banks. Less noticed, though, is the surge in defaults among a vast network of unregulated underground banks in recent months, a development that threatens to further crimp credit supplies to the private sector.

　　中国地方政府欠国有银行的债务像吹气球一样不断膨胀这一点备受关注，但人们较少注意到的是，在无人监管的庞大地下钱庄网络，近几月来违约事件激增，这一趋势恐将进一步挤压私人部门的信贷供给。

　　According to research over several months by FT China Confidential, non-performing loans at 50 underground banks surveyed in seven provinces have been climbing steadily since early 2011. In April, May and June, the proportion of underground banks reporting a rise in bad loans from the previous month were 22 per cent, 19 per cent and 15 per cent, respectively – representing clearly elevated levels from the near zero increases registered in the first two months of the year.

　　《中国投资参考》(FT China Confidential)历时数月，在7个省份对50家左右的地下钱庄进行了调查，发现越来越多的钱庄声称坏账有所增多。在4月、5月和6月，表示坏账较上月增多的地下钱庄所占比例分别为22%、19%和15%，而今年头两个月增长接近于零。

　　Underground banks inhabit the twilight of China’s financial system. Though unregulated and often unregistered, they regularly advertise for clients and depositors in local city newspapers. A couple of years ago, such adverts would typically be small, somewhat furtive notices offering “quick funds” next to a single mobile phone number.

　　地下钱庄栖居中国金融体系的模糊地带，无人监管，多为无照经营，但他们定期在地方城市的报纸上打广告，招揽客户和储户。两三年前，这类广告往往是小打小闹，只印一串手机号码，后面写有提供“快捷资金”之类的字眼，多少带点偷偷摸摸的意味。

　　Since then, however, they have come a long way. The adverts in local city newspapers are now larger and bolder, with the mobile phone number often replaced by the name of an institution in large coloured print. “Easy Heaven Investments”, “Profits Quick”, “Treasure Beautiful Gold Credit Company” were three such names on a page full of underground bank adverts near the back of a recent edition of the Qingdao Metropolitan, a newspaper in the east coast city of Qingdao.

　　不过他们已经今非昔比了。他们在地方城市报纸上做的广告不但篇幅大了许多，也更加明目张胆。以往写着手机号码的位置，如今往往代之以大号彩色字体的机构名称。青岛最近一期《半岛都市报》后面有一整版都是地下钱庄的广告，例如“易天投资”、“盈驰”和“宝丽金”。

　　Because underground banks do not publish any financial numbers, the size of the sector is hard to estimate. However, China Confidential estimates that total lending from underground banks in 2010 ran to a few trillion renminbi, making the sector a vital source of credit to privately-owned SMEs (small and medium enterprises), which find it difficult to borrow from the state-dominated formal banking sector.

　　由于地下钱庄从不公布财务数字，这个行业的规模很难估计。不过，我们估计2010年中国地下钱庄总共发放了数万亿元人民币贷款。对难以从政府主导的正规银行贷到资金的民营中小企业来说，地下钱庄是一个极其重要的信贷来源。

　　The spike in bad debts has come as many private enterprises have been hard hit by rising costs of labour, power, property rent, land rent, water, transports and several other key business inputs. In an effort to curb such inflation, Beijing has raised formal bank interest rates five times since October 2010 and increased the amount of funds that banks must hold on reserve at the central bank on numerous occasions.

　　目前地下钱庄之所以坏账激增，根源在于劳动力、电力、房租、地租、水、运输及其它各项关键生产成本节节攀升，对许多民营企业造成了严重冲击。正是为了遏制通胀，中国自2010年10月以来5次上调了正式银行利率，并多次调高银行存款准备金率。

　　However, such moves have served to accentuate the credit squeeze felt by private enterprises, and underground banks have hiked lending rates accordingly. In Zhejiang Province, known for its vibrant private sector, underground money shops are charging 6 per cent to 8 percent a month (84 per cent to 104 per cent a year) for loans with valid collateral such as housing or blue chip stocks, and up to 15 per cent a month for loans without collateral. In contrast, the benchmark lending rate from formal banks is 6.56 per cent a year.

　　可是这些举措更加使民营企业感受到了信贷紧缩，而地下银行也相应地上调了贷款利率。在以私营经济蓬勃发展著称的浙江省，以住房或蓝筹股作抵押向地下钱庄贷款，月息介于6%至8%（相当于年息84%至104%）；而无抵押贷款的月息最高可达15%。相比之下，正规银行的基准年贷款利率为6.56%。

　　The sharp increase in credit costs to private enterprises have hit profit margins, with manufacturers in Guangdong province, an export powerhouse dominated by private companies, reporting only a 10.4 percent increase in profit in the first quarter of this year, down from a 36.5 per cent rise in the same period a year earlier.

　　信贷成本大幅攀升挤压了民营企业的利润率。在以民营企业为主体的出口大省广东省，制造业企业今年一季度的利润仅增长了10.4%，增幅远低于去年同期的36.5%。

　　The problem is made worse by manufacturers’ deteriorating cash flow that puts their survival at risk. Rather than allowing credit sales, upstream suppliers are asking for one-time cash payments before shipping goods out. In the mean time, factories are spending several months longer getting paid by downstream clients who are facing a buildup of unsold inventory.

　　更糟糕的是，由于现金流持续恶化，许多制造业企业连生存都成问题。上游供货商再也不允许欠款，而要求资金一次到位，之后才会发货。与此同时，工厂则要多等几个月才能收到下游客户的款项，而后者仓库里没卖出去的存货越积越多。

　　This combined has raised red flags for underground banks. The number of litigations regarding underground lending default jumped 22 percent in Wenzhou, one of China’s most capitalist cities, in the first five months of this year compared to the same period a year earlier, according to a local court. Although most borrowers could still make ends meet, the few who fail are often a victim of exorbitant borrowing costs.

　　这一切都给地下钱庄拉响了警报。在中国最具资本主义色彩的城市之一温州，据一家地方法院透露，今年头5个月，全市与民间借贷相关的违约诉讼案件同比增加了22%。虽然说大多数贷款者都还能把日子过下去，但那些占少数的倒闭者往往是贷款成本过高的牺牲品。

　　Deer Electronics, a refrigerator maker in the eastern Jiaxing City, filed in April for bankruptcy after defaulting on an Rmb70m loan from underground lenders that was agreed at 7 percent interest a month.

　　嘉兴市冰箱厂商德尔电器(Deer Electronics)因拖欠地下钱庄一笔月息7%的7000万元人民币贷款，已于4月申请破产。

　　But in spite of the increase in bankruptcies and distressed borrowers, depositors remain eager to park their funds with underground banks because of the lucrative interest rates offered and the fact that formal state banks savers are currently earning sharply negative real returns. To manage funds for wealthy clients, a money broker in Zhejiang Province said he had to promise more than 20 per cent in annual interest, or around 6 times the benchmark deposit rate.

　　然而，尽管越来越多的企业不是破产就是处境艰难，储户仍然热衷于把钱存在地下钱庄，原因有两点：一是地下钱庄提供的利率实在诱人，二是正规银行存款的实际利率是个不小的负值。浙江一位从事短期借贷中介业务的经纪人表示，为了给有钱客户管理资金，他不得不许下年息20%以上的承诺，这大致相当于基准存款利率的6倍。

　　It is likely that the stress evident in the underground banking sector could mount in coming months. Lenders in Hangzhou, an eastern city, voiced concerns about loans to property developers and small exporters after some of them invested borrowed funds in stock futures to earn a quick buck.

　　地下钱庄已经面临不小的压力，未来几个月，这种压力可能会进一步加大。杭州一些地下钱庄就表示为发放给房地产开发商和小型出口企业的贷款感到担心，因为其中有些人把借来的钱拿去投资股票期货，就为了快点来钱。

　　The best way to keep private lenders from blowing up, said He Zhicheng of the Agricultural Bank of China in an article, is to lift interest rate controls so formal banks could price the cost of capital according to market risks. But to do so would require “a big raise in lending rates to state firms”, which may also cause non-performing loans to jump.

　　中国农业银行(Agricultural Bank of China)的何志成撰文表示，“打击高利贷市场的最好方法是”取消利率管制，使正规银行能够按照市场风险的高低对资金成本进行定价。但这样做的前提必然是“大幅度提高国有企业的贷款利率”，而这也可能导致大面积坏账。

　　“This is a big paradox,” wrote He.

　　“这是一个极大的悖论。”