中国粮食需求数据亟待透明化（双语）

　　The agriculture ministers of the Group of 20 industrialized and emerging nations, including China, agreed last week to set up a monitoring database for food stocks and production to help producers reliably predict needs -- a laudable goal given that escalating food prices have been behind some of the sharpest inflationary pressures in recent years.

　　Keith Bedford/Bloomberg2011年2月14日，山东省一片农田中因干旱而枯死的玉米。包括中国在内的20个工业化和新兴市场国家的农业部长上周同意建立一个监控粮食储备和生产的数据库，以帮助生产商可靠地预测需求。这是一个值得称许的目标，因为近年来不断上涨的粮食价格是通胀压力急剧加大的原因之一。

　　China, which has the unenviable task of feeding a fifth of the world's population amid sharp agriculture price increases, would stand to benefit from such a database even more than others.

　　在农产品价格大幅攀升的背景下，中国却还要艰难地养活占世界人口数量五分之一的人口。相对其它国家而言，中国更能够从这个数据库获得更多的好处。

　　Or would it?

　　但事实真能如此吗？

　　China's track record suggests that its disclosures to this imminent G20 database will shed little light on the country's true needs.

　　以往情况表明，中国为即将推出的G20数据库披露的数据几乎无法反映中国的真实需求。

　　China's grain output has always been a matter for wonder. Last year, official figures show, the country posted its seventh consecutive record harvest. This year, the government is aiming to make it eight in a row, and domestic analysts aren't really doubting its achievability because -- well, because the government says it shall be done.

　　中国的粮食产量一直令人感到难以理解。官方数据显示，去年中国公布了连续七年创下新高的收成数据。今年政府的目标是第八次打破收成记录。对于这个目标能否实现，国内分析师并不怀疑，因为，你知道，政府说应该达成这一目标。

　　Never mind that prior to 2003, China typically enjoyed two or three bumper grain harvests in a row before a bad bout of weather set farmers back. The record harvests are now happening as ritually as China's near-annual struggle with droughts and floods -- which apparently haven't dented output much over the last seven years.

　　更不用提在2003年之前，当时中国的农业生产尚未受到一轮恶劣天气的影响，因而总能连续两年或三年实现粮食大丰收。如今中国几乎每年都要同洪水和干旱做斗争，而创下新高的丰收数据就像例行公事一样总会出现。很显然，洪水和干旱在过去七年间没有对农业产出造成多大影响。

　　So are the numbers fudged? Consider the corn sector. Last year, China turned net corn importer for the first time in 15 years, importing 1.6 million tons of the grain. Officials said a strong 2010 harvest meant more corn imports were unlikely in 2011, sticking to the government's theme of grain self-sufficiency. They then went ahead and bought 1 million tons of corn from the U.S. in March, denying it to the media only to come back two months later -- after publication of U.S. export data -- and admit that they did buy it after all.

　　那么，这些数据是捏造的吗？以玉米为例，我们看看相关情况。就在去年，中国15年来首次成为玉米净进口国，总共进口了160万吨玉米。有关官员称，2010年的大丰收意味着2011年玉米进口数量不大可能会增加，这一说法和中国政府“粮食生产自给自足”的论调一致。但今年3月，中国又从美国进口了100万吨玉米，并向媒体否认了这一事实。直到两个月后美国公布了出口数据，有关部门才承认确有其事。

　　Meanwhile, corn output results are still being officially revised -- as with most other grain production statistics -- half a year after the ministry declared a bumper harvest.

　　此外，距农业部宣布大丰收已有半年之久，官方还在修正玉米的产出数据。不仅是玉米，大多数其他粮食的产出数据也被同样被修改了。

　　Confusion over the true volume of China's grain output comes as the country struggles with an increasingly thirsty countryside. Experts are warning that China is facing serious water scarcity in its grain-producing areas. Lars Skov Andersen, a deputy with the EU-China River Basin Management Program and director for global environmental consultancy COWI, said China may lose a third of its agricultural output in a just few years because farmers have been relentlessly plumbing aquifers to supplement parched water resources in the Hai and Yellow River basins.

　　不但粮食产出的真实情况令人困惑，与此同时，中国还在与国内农村地区日益严重的缺水问题作斗争。专家警告说，中国粮食产区正面临着严重缺水问题。中国-欧盟流域管理项目（EU-China River Basin Management Program）技援组副组长、全球环境咨询公司COWI主管安德森（Lars Skov Andersen）说，不出数年中国的农业产出可能会减少三分之一，因为海河与黄河流域的农民正持续不断地抽取含水层的水份以补充枯竭的水资源。

　　The numbers problem isn't confined to the grain sector. As the International Energy Agency, a division of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, has noted, fuzzy data are just as frustrating to the energy market. "China's oil demand outlook has become increasingly crucial for global oil balances," the IEA said in a February report. "Predicting Chinese trends, however, is far from being an exact science, mostly because of huge uncertainties with respect to official data."

　　统计数据的问题并不局限于粮食部门。经济合作与发展组织（Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development）下设的国际能源署（International Energy Agency）指出，模糊的数据同样会令能源市场受挫。国际能源署在今年2月的一份报告中称：从全球石油平衡的角度来说，中国的石油需求前景越发变得举足轻重。但想要准确预测中国的需求走势很不容易，这主要是因为官方数据有着巨大的不确定性。”

　　Some top agriculture officials think it's time to be more frank about China's food needs. Lack of clarity over the country's grain output has arguably been one factor behind sharply higher global grain prices, as even the slightest market chatter about possible Chinese purchases can send prices soaring. The U.S. Grains Council President Thomas Dorr has told Dow Jones Newswires in the past that China should help global grain producers plan ahead by being clearer about the extent of its needs.

　　农业部一些高级官员认为，现在应该是更加坦诚地披露中国粮食需求的时候了。中国粮食产出数据缺乏透明度是否是全球粮价大幅走高的一个因素尚无定论，但只要市场上一传出中国可能进口粮食的小道消息，粮价就会应声大幅上涨。美国饲料谷物协会（U.S. Grains Council）总裁托马斯•多尔（Thomas Dorr）此前曾告诉道琼斯通讯社（Dow Jones Newswires），中国应该通过提高粮食需求数据的准确度，以帮助全球粮食生产商提前规划生产。

　　China isn't the only country that produces less-than dependable food output data, but its size and economic importance mean the impact of those distortions is felt globally. If the G20 database is going to work the way it's supposed to, China will have to be willing to put its money where its mouth is.

　　并非只有中国才存在粮食产出数据不可靠的现象，但中国的需求规模及其在经济上的重要性意味着如果数据失真，全球都会受到影响。G20数据库若要发挥应有的作用，中国就必须切实行动起来，公布可靠的数据。