算算中国入账了多少热钱（双语）

　　Barely a day goes by without news on China shopping abroad. A South African gold miner here; Angolan oil assets there. The country spent more than $15bn in Latin America in the past 12 months, according to Deloitte. Less, however, is reported on foreign money flowing into China. There are two reasons. First, it is difficult for individuals to get a foot in the door, hence China is not considered a conventional investment destination. Second, the data on inflows are hard to pin down.

　　几乎每一天都有中国在海外投资的消息：今天是南非的金矿，明天又是安哥拉的石油资产。根据德勤(Deloitte)的数据，在过去12个月里，中国在拉美投资了150多亿美元。然而，对外国资本流入中国的报道却比较少。这里有两个原因。首先，个人很难获得机会参与到投资中国的过程中，因此，他们不认为中国是一个常规投资目的地。其次，很难确定流入中国的外国资本规模。

　　But it is impossible to keep capital away from a fast-growing nation whose currency is criminally undervalued. Money finds a way. Capital Economics, for one, reckons it is pouring into China like never before. To calculate how much, consider that the dollar value of foreign exchange reserves leapt by $200bn in the first quarter, almost the biggest increase on record. As the trade balance for the same period was basically zero, capital inflows must have been the cause.

　　但是，让资本远离一个快速增长、本币汇率被不道德低估的国家是不可能的。资本自会找到流入途径。例如，资本经济(Capital Economics)就认为，外国资本正以前所未有的规模涌入中国。要计算规模到底有多大，只需想想今年一季度中国外汇储备激增2000亿美元（几乎是有记录以来的最大增幅）这件事。由于同期的贸易余额基本上可以忽略，因此外储激增的原因肯定是外国资本流入。

　　That capital is not only new foreign money; it also includes interest income on forex reserves, pretty sizeable when you hold some $3,000bn of reserves. Current account data are only reported annually but Capital Economics estimates quarterly interest income of about $35bn and negligible non-interest payments. That gives a rough estimate of the foreign investment flows into China: $165bn.

　　这2000亿美元当然不全是新流入的外国资本，它还包括中国外汇储备的利息收入——当你拥有约3万亿美元外储时，利息收入是相当可观的。虽然中国每年只公布一次经常账户数据，但资本经济估计，中国每季度的利息收入约为350亿美元，而非利息支付可以忽略不计。这让我们可以大致估算出，流入中国的外国资本应为1650亿美元。

　　That is more than the whole first half of 2010 and easily ahead of the record year for inflows in 2008. That helps explain why money aggregates are still expanding at about 15 per cent per year and that the People’s Bank of China tightened reserve ratios again last month.

　　这一数字比2010年上半年的外资流入额还要多，更是远远超过外资流入规模创纪录的2008年全年的总流入额。这有助于解释为何流入中国的资金仍以每年大约15%的速度增长，以及为何中国央行上月再次上调了存款准备金。

　　Chinese investments often scare the locals. But it goes the other way, too. Foreign funds are making life harder for Chinese authorities.

　　中国的对外投资往往让当地感到不安。但反过来也一样。流入中国的外国资本让中国政府的日子也更加难过。