美股经历动荡二季度 市场信心受考验（双语）

　　After a tumultuous second quarter, investors could be forgiven for feeling dazed and confused.

　　动荡的二季度过后，投资者感到茫然和困惑是可以原谅的。

　　While the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the quarter up 0.8%, the positive result belies the whipsaw nature of trading through many financial markets. As the third quarter opens, typically a sluggish trading quarter, investors face the prospect of continued volatility.

　　Bloomberg News二季度纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克市场的交易量同比降幅超过30%，这还只是在交投清淡的夏季开始前的情况。图为纽约证券交易所的交易员。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数（Dow Jones Industrial Average）在二季度结束时收涨0.8%，这一积极的结果掩盖了许多金融市场交易量大起大落的本质。当传统上交投清淡的第三季度开始时，投资者面临的前景依然是持续波动的市场。

　　The oft-repeated trading term “risk on, risk off” is again dominating, with stocks, currencies and commodities moving in response to macro events -- rising and falling as investors became alternately optimistic and despondent about global economic growth, Europe's debt woes, and the impact of Japan's earthquake and tsunami.

　　常被提起的交易术语“行情看涨，行情看跌”（risk on, risk off）再次主导市场，股票、外汇和大宗商品市场针对宏观事件相机而动。全球经济增长前景、欧洲债务危机以及日本地震和海啸带来的影响令投资者的情绪在乐观和悲观间切换，市场也对应上下起伏。

　　The result has been a slump in trading in all financial assets as investors flee to the sidelines. When they do buy, individual investors have been shunning U.S. stocks in favor of bonds. Among the big-money players, hedge funds are moving even faster than usual to quit their positions. As a result, markets are seeing quicker turns in sentiment and making it harder for investors to find trends to ride.

　　其结果就是，随着投资者离场观望，所有金融资产的交易都很低迷。当投资者买入资产时，个人投资者青睐债券回避股票。在资金雄厚的机构投资者中，对冲基金比平时更快地平仓。因此，市场情绪波动更为剧烈，投资者更加难以把握趋势进行投资。

　　"Anytime anyone hears a twig snap in the global markets, everybody runs for the exits," said Tyler Mordy, director of research at money manager Hahn Investment Stewards in Toronto.

　　多伦多的投资机构Hahn Investment Stewards的研究主管莫迪（Tyler Mordy）说，在全球市场上，任何时候只要有人听到风吹草动，每位投资者就赶紧逃离市场。

　　For the Dow, that meant an April rally of nearly 4% was followed by a collapse that lasted through mid-June, taking stocks down 7% and then back-and-forth swings in the final weeks. The Dow finished the quarter at 12414.34, up 94.61 points -- its fourth quarterly gain in a row and eighth out of the past nine.

　　道指在4月份回升了近4%后持续下挫直到6月中旬，指数累计下跌7%。6月最后几周道指上下反复波动。二季度结束时道指收于12414.34点，涨94.61点。这是道指连续第四个季度收涨，也是过去九个季度中，第八次收涨。

　　Other markets also saw sharp reversals. Crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange slid 16% from a high hit April 29 to finish down 11% for the quarter at $95.42. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note swung from 3.57% in early April down to 2.87% on June 24 before climbing to 3.16% at the end of the quarter. The dollar was on its own roller-coaster against the euro between $1.38 and $1.49.

　　其它市场也呈现了剧烈反转的态势。纽约商品交易所（New York Mercantile Exchange）原油期货价格在4月29日创下新高之后便开始下跌，跌幅达16%。二季度结束时原油期货价格下跌11%，至95.42美元。10年期国债收益率从4月初的3.57%跌至6月24日的2.87%，二季度结束时又再次爬回3.16%。美元兑欧元的汇率走势则彷佛坐了一趟过山车，其价格在1.38美元至1.49美元之间波动。

　　Trading volumes on New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq were down more than 30% in the second quarter from 2010 and this came before the usual summer doldrums kick in. As well, the Federal Reserve on Thursday ended its $600 billion bond-buying program. Some traders believe that without the steadying hand of the Fed, volatility could be on the upswing.

　　二季度纽约证券交易所（New York Stock Exchange）和纳斯达克市场的交易量同比降幅超过30%，这还只是在交投清淡的夏季开始前的情况。美联储（Federal Reserve）在周四结束了其6,000亿美元的债券购买计划。一些交易员认为，如果没有美联储的支撑，市场波动性可能还会加大。

　　Sentiment swung from optimism about the global expansion in the first quarter to worries about the extent of an economic soft patch that followed a rise in oil prices and the disaster in Japan. During late May and much of June the markets were buffeted daily, and sometimes hourly, by conflicting headlines about the Greek debt crisis.

　　市场情绪也是摇摆不定：一季度市场还对全球扩张感到乐观，但日本天灾和油价上涨之后，市场就对经济增速短期下降的影响感到忧虑。5月下旬和6月大部分时间里，市场每天都会受到希腊债务危机的头条新闻冲击，有时甚至每个小时都会受到影响。

　　Sharper-than-usual swings in sentiment can be seen in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission data on currency positions, said Jessica Hoversen, currency strategist at MF Global. "The cycles . . . have gotten shorter and shorter," she said, pointing at extremes in bullish and bearish positions.

　　经纪商MF Global的外汇策略师哈弗森（Jessica Hoversen）说，市场情绪比平日更为剧烈的波动可以从美国商品期货交易委员会（Commodity Futures Trading Commission）外汇持仓量数据看出。周期持续时间变得越来越短。这里她指的是多头极值和空头极值出现的时间差。

　　Ms. Hoversen looked at the length of time between extremes in the amounts of long and short positions in the dollar against six currencies. Between 2004 and 2009 she counted seven cycles that lasted on average 9 1/2 months. In the past year she counted four cycles that on average lasted less than four months.

　　在美元兑其它六种货币中，哈弗森仔细研究了看涨美元的头寸极值和看跌美元的头寸极值出现的时间差（即一个周期）。在2004年到2009年之间，她发现有七个周期的平均持续时间为9.5个月。在过去一年里，她发现有四个周期的平均持续时间不到四个月。

　　These swings are making life difficult for hedge-fund traders.

　　市场的波动让对冲基金交易员的日子不好过。

　　In commodities, some hedge funds had logged double-digit declines as of mid-June.

　　在大宗商品市场上，截至6月中旬，一些对冲基金的净值出现了两位数的下跌。

　　The lack of interest for riskier investments is perhaps most clear in the renewed exodus of money from U.S. stock funds. During the first four months of 2011, $18 billion shifted into U.S. stock funds, according to the Investment Company Institute. But in the eight weeks ended June 22, $26 billion flowed right back out the door, according to ICI estimates. Money also poured out of commodity funds at a pace unseen since the height of the financial crisis.

　　市场对风险较大的投资品缺乏兴趣可以明显地从资金再一次大量逃离美国股票型基金看出。据研究机构Investment Company Institute透露，在2011年头四个月内，共有180亿美元的资金被转移到美国的股票型基金中。但据Investment Company Institute估计，在截至6月22日的八周内，共计260亿美元的资金流出这些基金。大量资金也以金融危机形势最严峻的日子以来未曾见过的速度涌出大宗商品基金。

　　Meanwhile, individual investors continue to prefer bonds, even with interest rates at historically low levels. So far this year, bond funds have hauled in $63 billion, according to the ICI.

　　与此同时，尽管利率处于历史低位，个人投资者还是偏好债券。据Investment Company Institute透露，今年以来到目前为止，债券型基金已经吸收了630亿美元的资金。