美国经济增长将依赖出口 中国成关键

　　The U.S. economy will have to increasingly rely on exports for growth because of the reluctance of policy makers to use monetary or fiscal policy prescriptions, ITG Investment Research senior economist Steve Blitz said, a formula which poses downside risks.

　　研究机构ITG Investment Research的高级经济学家布里茨（Steve Blitz）说，美国经济增长将日益依赖出口拉动，因为决策者不愿使用货币或财政政策这类解决问题的方法。这可能会构成经济下行的风险。

　　The Federal Reserve's closing of its bond-purchase program and the expiration of some stimulus efforts mean an outsized emphasis on selling goods overseas to pull the economy along, Blitz said. U.S. policy makers will have to hope one of its chief economic rivals steps in to pick up the slack.

　　布里茨说，美联储(Federal Reserve)结束其债券购买计划以及一些经济刺激措施到期意味着想要拉动经济增长，我们将主要依靠出口。美国的决策者将不得不寄希望于其经济上的主要竞争对手之一能够介入，填补其退出造成的空缺。

　　"You've got a contractionary bias going forward now on the monetary and fiscal side," Blitz said in an interview.

　　布里茨在接受采访时说，无论是货币政策还是财政政策，都在偏向紧缩。

　　"How do you keep the economy going? Exports, and that means whether it's directly to China or not, they are certainly the linchpin."

　　布里茨说，如何保持经济持续增长？靠出口。这意味着无论是否直接向中国出口，中国肯定是关键。

　　With unemployment figures still inflated, Blitz said there are sentiment risks as consumers and businesses both show unease about the state of the economy. Any contraction in hiring or negative surprises have the potential to quickly sour consumers' feelings.

　　由于失业人数仍在增加，布里茨说，存在这样一种风险，即消费者和企业都对经济状况表现出不安情绪。一旦招聘出现收缩，或出现任何负面的意外情况，消费者的情绪都有可能迅速变得糟糕。

　　"There's not a lot of cushion or goodwill for the economy to keep people spending if they start to see the economy get worse," he said.

　　布里茨说，如果消费者看到经济有变糟糕的迹象，那么经济中并没有多少缓冲机制或积极的情绪能让消费者继续消费。

　　The political fight over spending and deficits has effectively taken Congress out of the picture when it comes to goosing the economy, and the Fed has signaled it doesn't intend to embark on another round of quantitative easing given current economic indicators. Those positions may have to change, Blitz said, particularly if policy makers are again caught off guard by a deterioration.

　　每当涉及推动经济发展时，有关支出和赤字的政治斗争实际上让国会迷失了主要方向。美联储已暗示，鉴于当前各项经济指标，其并不打算推出第三轮量化宽松政策。布里茨说，这些政策立场可能会被迫改变，特别是如果经济形势恶化令决策者措手不及。

　　"You've got in effect a pulling away of stimulus at the same time no one's really addressing the economy. You've narrowed the sources of growth," Blitz said.

　　布里茨说，事实上，在收回经济刺激措施的同时却没有人在真正解决经济问题。经济增长的源泉被限制了。