市场不应低估中东局势（双语）

　　Global markets paid scant attention to the Egyptian and Tunisian revolutions. Both were seen as lacking systemic economic and financial significance.

　　全球市场之前对埃及和突尼斯发生的革命不太在意，认为这两个国家在经济和金融方面不具备系统重要性。

　　This is now changing as youth-inspired uprisings spread to other countries in North Africa and the Middle East. While political and social issues rightly dominate the headlines, this past weekend could also prove a tipping point when it comes to the global economy; and there is little that western countries can do to offset short-term stagflationary winds.

　　随着这些青年起义活动向北非和中东其它国家蔓延，上述情况正在发生变化。虽然报纸的头版头条理所当然地被政治和社会问题所主宰，但对于全球经济来说，过去一周或许是一个转折点。而在如何阻挡短期内的“滞胀”风潮上，西方国家基本上无能为力。

　　It is understandable that Egypt and Tunisia had essentially not registered on the markets’ traditional scale of systemic influence. The two countries are not significant global economic powers; they do not owe much money to western banks and governments; and they are not large exporters of commodities.

　　本质上讲，市场此前并没有把埃及和突尼斯归入具有系统重要性的传统国家范畴，这一点情有可原。这两个国家并非重要的世界经济大国；没有欠西方银行和政府很多钱；也不是重要的大宗商品出口国。

　　Yet Egypt and Tunisia are catalysts for a broader change that is gaining systemic importance as protests spread. Two developments are particularly important when it comes to global demand and price dynamics. With an oil exporter such as Libya in the grips of a popular uprising, oil prices will rise to reflect much greater supply uncertainties. And with sectarian issues now on display in Bahrain, geopolitical risks are higher for the region – especially as other countries seek to influence events in the kingdom.

　　然而，埃及和突尼斯起到了催化剂的作用。它们激起了一种范围更大的变化，随着示威浪潮蔓延，这种变化的系统重要性不断增强。就全球需求和价格走势而言，有两个动向尤为重要。首先，当像利比亚这样的石油出口国陷入民众起义的浪潮，将导致石油供给不确定性大为加强，从而推高油价。其次，鉴于巴林正显现出派系问题，该地区的地缘政治风险明显加剧——尤其是在其它国家正谋求对这个王国的局势施加影响的情况下。

　　In the short run, regional developments will be stagflationary for the global economy due to three main factors: First, higher oil prices will increase production costs and act as a tax on consumers. Second, greater stockpiling around the world will intensify pressures on commodities as a whole. Third, the region will be a smaller market for other countries’ exports.

　　短期内，该地区局势将给全球经济带来滞胀影响，这主要有三点原因：第一，油价上涨将拉高生产成本，加重消费者负担；第二，全球各地加大囤货力度，这将加剧所有大宗商品的压力；第三，该地区从其他国家进口的商品将会减少。

　　This economic reality is far from encouraging for western countries. Domestically, having countered aggressively the impact of the global financial crisis, they have little room left for further demand stimulus.

　　对西方国家来说，这种经济现实不容乐观。在积极抵御全球金融危机的冲击之后，西方各国已经没有余力再出台刺激需求的举措。

　　In the next few days, markets will react to the changed outlook. Higher commodity prices will be accompanied by greater risk aversion in the equity and credit markets. Over time, however, such market apprehension is likely to give way. In the long term, after all, democracy and individual freedoms are the best drivers of prosperity.

　　未来几天，市场将顺应形势的变化而作出反应。伴随着大宗商品价格走高，股市和信贷市场上的避险意识将会增强。不过，随着时间推移，这种市场忧虑情绪有望缓解。毕竟，从长远来看，民主和个体自由是繁荣的最佳推进器。