中东乱局中的五条投资策略（双语）

　　With allied forces bombing Libya, Saudi troops quelling unrest in Bahrain and intensifying violence in Yemen, the Middle East is becoming an increasingly unpredictable, dangerous place.

　　多国部队轰炸利比亚，沙特阿拉伯派出部队平息巴林内乱，也门动乱不断升级，中东地区正成为一个越来越不可预测和危险的地方。

　　Already, governments in Tunisia and Egypt have fallen. Protests have also spread to Syria and Oman and the Saudi government is trying to prevent protests from gaining traction in the Kingdom.

　　突尼斯和埃及的政府已经下台。抗议活动还蔓延到叙利亚和阿曼，而沙特政府正试图阻止国内的抗议活动不断升级。

　　The so-called Arab Spring has surprised many. Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O'Neill called events in the Middle East 'not overly kind' to the global growth story, though he remains bullish.

　　这场被称作“阿拉伯之春”的动荡震惊了许多人。高盛资产管理部主席奥尼尔（Jim O'Neill）称中东的一系列事件对全球经济增长来说并不算是“十分友好”，但他仍然看好后市。

　　So how should investors think about the region? Here are five strategies to consider.

　　投资者又该如何看待这一地区的局势？下面提供五条策略以供参考：

　　Bet on oil

　　押注石油

　　This is what a lot of pros have already been doing -- pushing light, sweet crude to more than $100 a barrel from $85 a barrel in mid-February. Goldman estimates that there's a $10-a-barrel 'risk premium' already in crude prices.

　　 这是很多专业人士已经在做的事情，他们将轻质低硫原油的价格从2月中旬的每桶85美元推高至超过100美元。高盛估计现在每桶的原油价格中已经包含了10美元的风险溢价。

　　After a few days of bombing in Libya, it's not clear the crisis there will resolve itself quickly, which could support further oil price gains. Also, events in Bahrain have quieted down, but the situation there is still unresolved. The island nation has become a flashpoint between Saudi Arabia and Iran as the two countries jostle for influence in the region. Bahrain has recalled its ambassador from Iran, and Iran has returned the disfavor. With the first- and third-biggest oil producers at loggerheads, the risk for oil markets remains high.

　　在利比亚空袭过后几天，现在还不清楚那里的危机是否会很快得到解决，这种不确定的局面会支撑油价的进一步上涨。此外，尽管巴林的内乱逐渐平息，但那里的局势仍然悬而未决。由于沙特和伊朗在这一地区争夺影响力，巴林已经成为沙特和伊朗之间的一个爆发点。巴林已经从伊朗召回其大使，伊朗也立刻还以颜色。在全球第一和第三大产油国相互对峙之际，石油市场的风险仍然很高。

　　"Event risk is building in the oil market," Deutsche Bank says in a recent report, citing the Bahrain and Libyan situation. "This is occurring at a time when spare capacity in Saudi Arabia is falling rapidly." Deutsche also cites the Bank of Japan's huge liquidity injections following the Japanese earthquake and says it "views events as bullish" for crude oil.

　　德意志银行在最近的一份研究报告援引巴林和利比亚的局势时说，石油市场的突发事件风险正在积聚。眼下，沙特的闲置产能正在快速下降。德意志银行同时援引了地震后日本央行往市场注入巨额流动性的例子，并说这一系列事件对原油市场来说是一个利好。

　　Snap up gold

　　抢购黄金

　　Gold has had a topsy-turvy year so far, but the events in the Middle East and North Africa have given goldbugs a new reason to buy. The Libyan conflict in particular, has helped boost gold back toward record levels.

　　截至目前，金价走势非常混乱，但中东和北非的一系列事件给力挺黄金的人一个新的理由买入黄金。尤其是利比亚的冲突帮助金价回到历史高位。

　　Gold investors tend to like conflict, uncertainty and chaos. In the past couple of weeks, they've gotten plenty of it. Along with the Middle East and North Africa, the Japanese disaster has also given gold a fillip.

　　黄金投资者往往喜欢冲突、不确定性和混乱。在过去几周内有太多这样的事件。除了中东和北非的动荡局势，日本的灾害也提振了金价。

　　"Optimism over the state of the global economic recovery at the start of the year, which drove U.S. real interest rates sharply higher and gold prices lower has been tempered by the ongoing events in the Middle East and North Africa and Japan, sending the 10-year US TIPS yield [lower], setting the stage for the next gold price rally," Goldman said in a recent report.

　　高盛在最近的一份报告中说，年初对全球经济复苏形势的一片乐观大幅推高了美国的实际利率，并令金价走低。但这一情况已被中东、北非和日本正在发生的一系列事件所调和。美国十年期通胀保值债券（Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities，TIPS）走低，下一轮金价回升已蓄势待发。

　　Goldman has a near-term target of $1480/oz for gold. Silver, which has outperformed gold in the last year, is also a possible hedge against uncertain events in the Middle East and elsewhere.

　　高盛预计，金价短期内将摸高至1,480美元/盎司。而去年表现优于黄金的白银也是对冲中东和其它地区不确定事件风险的有力工具。

　　Invest in defense stocks

　　 投资国防股

　　As the Journal's Bret Stephens wrote in his column this morning: "We're (Almost) All Neocons Now." Despite expressing initial reluctance to get involved in the Libyan situation, the Obama Administration has opened a third war front for the U.S. military.

　　就像《华尔街日报》的Bret Stephens在他的专栏中写道的那样：我们（几乎）都成了新保守派。尽管一开始表示不愿参与到利比亚的乱局中来，但奥巴马政府还是为美军打开了第三条战线。

　　Until recently, defense stocks, such as Raytheon, Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics had been flat-to-weaker during the Obama Administration, as investors counted on a continued pullback from Iraq and Afghanistan and an overall reduction in defense spending to help get the government's fiscal house in order.

　　在奥巴马政府执政期间，直到最近，像Raytheon、Northrop Grumman和General Dynamics这样的国防股至多只能算是表现平平。投资者预计政府会继续从伊拉克和阿富汗撤军，同时会降低总体国防支出以缩小财政赤字。

　　But the prospect of more conflict has given these shares a bit of a boost in the past week. If it seems that the Obama Administration is going to pursue a more muscular foreign policy and that is still an uncertain bet defense stocks could surprise.

　　但过去一周里，未来发生更多冲突的可能稍稍提振了这些股票的价格。如果奥巴马政府将继续推行更为强硬的外交政策，那么国防股的表现可能令人惊艳，但外交政策的走向还是未知数。

　　Avoid the dollar

　　避开美元

　　As I noted recently, the dollar has performed oddly during the Middle East unrest. In the past, the dollar was the number-one safe haven in times of trouble. In the past two months, investors have preferred the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen and gold.

　　正如我最近指出的，在中东动荡期间，美元的表现很奇怪。在过去，美元总是乱世中的头号避险工具。但在过去的两个月中，投资者却倾向于瑞士法郎、日圆和黄金。

　　Lost in the firehose of news the past week nuclear crisis, bombing in Tripoli, Saudi troops in Bahrain -- is the increasing divergence between U.S. monetary policy and policy elsewhere, especially in the euro-zone.

　　由于过去的一周迷失在一系列新闻中，包括日本核危机、空袭利比亚、沙特出兵巴林，美国的货币政策和其它国家（尤其是欧元区）的货币政策的分歧越来越大。

　　The European Central Bank has made it clear it will raise rates at its next meeting. The Fed isn't even thinking about rate hikes yet. This divergence has propelled the euro sharply higher against the buck. The dollar has held up against the yen, but only after a highly unusual intervention by the G7 to tamp down extraordinary yen strength after the Japanese earthquake.

　　欧洲央行已明确表示将在下次会议上提高利率，而美联储甚至还没有考虑加息。政策的分歧大幅推高了欧元兑美元的汇率。虽然美元兑日圆走强，但这是在日本地震之后七国集团不同寻常的入场干预以打压异常坚挺的日圆之后才出现的。

　　With the U.S. fiscal situation uncertain, the debate about the debt ceiling still unresolved and monetary policy remaining super easy, the dollar will stay weak.

　　由于美国的财政状况并不明朗，有关债务限额的讨论仍然悬而未决，而货币政策又非常宽松，美元将继续疲软。

　　Steer clear of Middle East/Africa funds

　　避开中东/非洲基金

　　Some analysts like to urge investors to invest at the point of crisis. That's been a popular approach to Japan in the past week, especially after its stock market cratered in the first few days after the earthquake. That trade has worked, for the most part, primarily because Japan is a huge economy filled with nimble, global businesses that will find ways to overcome the disaster. Even Warren Buffett says it's a good time to buy Japan.

　　一些分析师喜欢催促投资者在危机时进行投资。对于日本市场来说，在过去一周这是常见的做法，尤其是地震后头几天日本股市大跌。多数时候这种做法非常有效，主要是因为日本是一个大型经济体，其国内有很多反应灵敏的全球企业，他们总会找到办法克服灾害。即使是巴菲特也说现在是投资日本市场的好时机。

　　So, why not say the same for the Middle East and North Africa?

　　那么，为什么中东和北非的情况就不一样呢？

　　For starters, it's not clear what the world will look like on the other side of this chaos. Tunisia and Egypt are still trying to sort themselves out after tossing out the previous leaders and the Egyptian stock market has been closed for almost eight weeks (it's expected to re-open on Wednesday).

　　首先，尚不清楚世界的另一个乱局会如何发展在前任领导人下台之后，突尼斯和埃及还在试图厘清头绪。埃及股市在关闭了近八周之后，于周三重新开市。

　　This region of emerging and frontier markets still has oceans of political risk and a history that does not argue for rapid recovery or the sudden flourishing of market capitalism. Indeed, governments that emerge from the crises could be even less market-friendly than what came before. Nobody really knows.

　　这一地区的新兴和前沿市场存在巨大的政治风险，并且有复苏缓慢或不太推崇市场资本主义的历史。事实上，在对待市场经济的态度上，危机后上台的政府可能比上一届政府更不友好。没有人知道会怎么样。

　　And when nobody really knows what will happen, that's not a recipe for investing, that's a recipe for playing the lottery. There are better ways to deploy your assets.

　　既然没有人知道将要发生的实际情况，那么这里就不适宜投资，只适合买彩票撞大运。毕竟，我们还有分配资产的更好的途径。