日本灾难损失可能高达3000亿美元（双语）

　　A new estimate of the economic damage wrought by the Japan disaster put the figure as high as $300 billion, while insurers continued to offer early estimates of their exposure.

　　新近进行的一项预估认为，日本此次灾难造成的经济损失最高将达3,000亿美元。各家保险公司目前仍在对它们在这一灾难中可能遭受的损失进行初步估算。

　　On Monday, disaster-modeling company Risk Management Solutions Inc. estimated the earthquake and tsunami will lead to economic losses of $200 billion to $300 billion.

　　瑞士再保险公司（Swiss Re）周一说，它预计日本地震和海啸会使其面临12亿美元的索赔额，但提醒说它的预计是以不确定性高于通常水平为条件的，随着被保险财产的损失程度日益明确，这个数字可能需要作出调整。

　　Analysts expect about 10% to 20% of the economic cost of the earthquake to be borne by private insurers and reinsurers, most of which have enough capital to withstand the losses. Still, with economic losses potentially exceeding $200 billion, the event would still be one of the costliest disasters in history for the insurance industry.

　　Associated Press2011年3月21日，在日本东北部的陆前高田市，一名年迈的妇女在被3月11日的地震和海啸摧毁的城镇中寻找她的物品。周一，灾害模型分析公司Risk Management Solutions Inc.预计，日本地震和海啸将导致2,000亿到3,000亿美元的经济损失。

　　Swiss Re said Monday it expects claims costs of $1.2 billion from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, but cautioned that its estimate is subject to a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty and may need to be adjusted as the extent of the insured losses becomes clearer.

　　分析师预计，日本地震所造成经济损失的约10%到20%将由私营保险公司和再保险公司承担，它们大部分都有足够的资金来承担这些损失。但由于此次灾难造成的经济损失有可能超过2,000亿美元，因此它仍将是保险业历史上造成经济损失最大的灾难之一。

　　The reinsurance company said the incident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant is unlikely to result in a significant direct loss for the non-life insurance industry. Earthquake and tsunami damage for nuclear facilities in Japan is largely provided by the government.

　　这家再保险公司说，福岛核电站事故不大可能给非寿险行业造成大量直接损失。地震和海啸对日本核设施的破坏将主要由政府提供损失赔偿。

　　American International Group Inc. last Friday estimated its property and casualty business would have to pay $700 million in claims arising from the Japan earthquake and tsunami, excluding $500 million in catastrophe reserves its Japanese operations earlier established for earthquake damage to people's homes.

　　美国国际集团（American International Group Inc.）上周五预计，其财产险和意外险业务将需要为日本地震和海啸造成的损失赔付7亿美元，这其中不包括该公司日本业务早些时候为居民房屋遭受地震破坏而建立的5亿美元巨灾储备金。

　　Munich Re, the world's largest reinsurance company by premiums, and Hannover Re both said on Monday that it was too early to provide an estimate. French reinsurer Scor SE has said its pretax losses will likely be less than 185 million ($262.1 million).

　　慕尼黑再保险公司（Munich Re）和汉诺威再保险公司（Hannover Re）周一均表示，现在提供赔偿额预估数字还为时尚早。法国再保险公司Scor SE说，其税前损失预计会少于1.85亿欧元（2.621亿美元）。慕尼黑再保险公司按保费收入衡量是世界最大的再保险公司。

　　Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc., which has an agreement to assume a 20% share of Swiss Re's world-wide property and casualty business, is likely to face claims from the Japanese quake.

　　巴菲特（Warren Buffett）的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（Berkshire Hathaway Inc.）可能会面临日本地震导致的索赔要求。它与瑞士再保险公司签有一项协议，需承担后者全球财产险和意外险业务20%的成本。

　　In addition to the Swiss Re deal, Berkshire's two large reinsurance businesses are likely to have exposures from Japanese disaster coverage they sold. The Omaha, Neb., conglomerate so far hasn't provided estimates of its quake-related claims but is expected to disclose them when it reports first-quarter results.

　　除瑞士再保险公司外，伯克希尔的两大再保险公司销售的日本灾难保险可能也面临索赔。这家位于内布拉斯加州奥马哈的企业集团目前尚未提供对地震相关保险理赔的估计，不过预计将在公布一季度收益时进行披露。

　　Analysts from Barclays Capital said Berkshire is likely to see a $1 billion to $2 billion impact, a loss the cash-rich company can easily absorb.

　　Barclays Capital的分析师们说，伯克希尔的损失很可能达10亿至20亿美元。这个数额的损失对财力雄厚的伯克希尔来说能够轻松承受。

　　In recent days, estimates have emerged concerning the impact of the country's travails elsewhere.

　　近几天来，关于日本灾难对其他地方所造成影响的估计陆续浮出水面。

　　The World Bank warned this week that Japan's disaster could cause exports from developing nations in East Asia to slow by as much as 1.5% as manufacturers in those countries suffer from supply-chain disruptions. Korean firms are facing higher prices for memory chips and exporters of cars in Thailand say current supplies of components imported from Japan will last through April, the World Bank said.

　　世界银行(World Bank)本周提醒说，日本的灾难可能造成东亚发展中国家的出口放缓至多1.5%，原因是这些国家的制造商受到供应链中断的影响。世界银行说，韩国公司将面临内存芯片价格上涨，而泰国的汽车出口商则说，日本进口部件的现有供应能够维持到4月底。

　　General Motors Co.'s South Korean unit said Monday that it will reduce production to prepare for a possible shortage of key components, following a similar decision by Renault SA's Korean subsidiary.

　　通用汽车(General Motors Co.)韩国子公司周一说，将减产以应对可能的关键部件供应短缺，此前雷诺(Renault SA)韩国子公司做出了类似的决定。

　　In addition, one-fourth of the region's long-term debt is denominated in yen, and appreciation of the yen increases the cost of servicing that debt, the World Bank report said.

　　此外，世界银行报告说，该地区四分之一的长期债务以日圆计价，日圆的升值会提高这些债务还本付息的成本。

　　On a brighter note for the insurance industry, the events in Japan may mark a turning point for reinsurers, which for several years have suffered from declining prices for the cover they provide.

　　对保险业来说较光明的一点是，日本的灾难对再保险公司来说可能是一个转折点，多年来再保险公司一直面临所提供保险价格不断下滑的局面。

　　This event could stabilize reinsurance pricing in the months ahead as reinsurers "capital and capacity has been reduced by a string of catastrophic events during the past six months," said ratings firm Moody's Investors Service in a recent report.

　　 评级公司穆迪投资服务(Moody's Investors Service)最近在一份报告中说，此事可能会使未来几个月再保险价格稳定，因为过去六个月再保险公司的资金和能力因一系列灾难性事件而受到打击。

　　Moody's anticipates strong reinsurance-market conditions in Japan for renewals at the start of April, as well as in Australia and New Zealand, where renewals occur midyear. The rater also said that share buybacks among global reinsurers, which were heavy during 2010, will grind to a virtual halt as companies preserve capital for the coming Atlantic hurricane season.

　　穆迪预计，4月初日本再保险市场续保的势头强劲，澳大利亚和新西兰的续保则发生在年中。穆迪还说，随着各公司保存资金准备应对即将到来的大西洋飓风季，2010年盛行的全球再保险公司回购股权之风将实际上逐渐停止。