中国房地产业：全球经济最重要的行业（双语）

　　Mark another milestone for China's ever-rising economic profile: UBS emerging-markets economist Jonathan Anderson has declared China's property industry "the single most important sector in the entire global economy."

　　中国不断增强的经济影响力出现又一里程碑：瑞银(UBS)新兴市场经济学家安德森(Jonathan Anderso)说，中国房地产业已成为全球经济中最重要的一个行业。

　　In a research note Wednesday, Mr. Anderson, a longtime China watcher, says that "real-estate and housing construction pervade the entire [China] growth model. They are the most important determinant of commodity demand, a very big marginal driver of China's external surpluses, and indeed a crucial key to real understanding of household balance sheets, saving and investment behavior and the debate around Chinese rebalancing." In other words, he says, "from a macroeconomic perspective if you don't understand Chinese property, you probably don't understand China."

　　长期观察中国经济的安德森周三在一份研究报告中说：房地产和住房建设已经成为中国增长模式的显著特征，它们是决定大宗商品需求的最重要因素；也是造成中国外部盈余的重大推手；还是真正理解中国家庭的资产负债表、储蓄和投资行为以及有关中国再平衡讨论的关键一环。换句话说，从宏观经济学的视角看，如果你不理解中国的房地产业，你就不理解中国。

　　Many global investors won't find the declaration all that surprising, having seen shares in many companies buffeted over the past year by Beijing's efforts to wrestle with soaring house prices while trying to avoid undercutting the construction industry. But it is remarkable sign of the times nevertheless. As Mr. Anderson notes, "until very recently' the proper response to the question of which sector is most important 'would almost certainly have been U.S. financials and/or U.S. housing."

　　Reuters北京市中心的一处住宅区附近的建筑工地，一名男子边走边打电话。许多全球投资者并不会觉得上述言论有多么令人吃惊，他们在过去一年中看到，由于中国政府在同飞涨的房价作斗争的同时还要避免过分打击建筑业，许多公司的股价因此遭受打击。但无论如何，中国房地产业仍是这个时代的显著标志。正如安德森写所指出的，直到不久前，对于“哪个行业对世界经济是最重要的”这个问题，最恰当的答案还几乎肯定是美国金融业或美国住房市场。

　　The numbers tell much of the story. China is the world's largest consumer of steel, and Mr. Anderson notes that real estate directly accounts for 40% of Chinese steel usage. Add home appliances and automobiles which he notes tend to directly follow new housing purchases in China--the share is more than 50%. Similar logic applies to other products like cement, iron ore, coal, and construction equipment.

　　数字最能说明问题。中国是世界上最大的钢铁消费国，安德森说房地产业直接占了中国钢铁消费量的40%，而家电制造、汽车制造和房地产这三个行业则直接占据了中国钢铁消费量的50%以上。据安德森观察，中国人购买新房之后，通常会购置家电和汽车。类似的逻辑同样适用于水泥、铁矿石、煤炭和建筑设备等产品。

　　Property construction 75% of which in China is housing--accounted for more than 13% of China's gross domestic product last year, UBS estimates more than double the average of 6% in the 1990s. Mr. Anderson says that explains why investment overall accounts for such a large share of China's economy an estimated 47% to 48% of GDP last year, which is an absolute record for any economy of significant size in the post-war era, and almost single-handedly explains China's explosive real growth over the same period.

　　据瑞银估计，房地产建设去年对中国GDP的贡献率超过13%（其中75%是住房建设），是6%这一上世纪90年代平均水平的两倍多。安德森说，这可以解释为什么投资在中国经济中占据了如此大的比重。据估计去年这一比重约为47%至48%。安德森说，对于战后任何一个大型经济体来说，这都绝对是最高记录，仅此一点就几乎足以解释中国为何能实现爆炸性的实际增长。

　　So is China's property sector a bubble? And how long can the boom continue? Mr. Anderson temporarily punts on those all-important questions, saying colleague Wang Tao, UBS's China economist, will weigh in next week.

　　那么，中国的房地产市场会是一个泡沫吗？繁荣又能持续多久呢？对于这些十分重要的问题，安德森暂时避而不谈，只说他的同事汪涛（瑞银中国经济学家）会在下周论及这些问题。