房子要升值的六个迹象

　　For nearly two years, home values plummeted to pre-2003 levels. Now, housing markets within the country are showing the first signs of stabilizing.

　　Of course, each housing market is regional and varies greatly from the other. Still, there are indicators home owners can rely on to see whether their home values are about to rise. Here are six.

　　The Unemployment Rate

　　It’s quite simple: Without a job, you can’t buy a home.

　　And as the unemployment rate rises, fewer individuals are capable of purchasing a home. That decreases the demand for homes, which drives prices down.

　　To find a city’s unemployment rate, and whether it’s rising or falling, visit the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ web site.

　　Also, see if local businesses are hiring and if large corporations are moving into the area. More jobs leads to more employees who end up increasing demand for real estate in the area.

　　Rising incomes

　　House hunters who want to dig a little deeper can look at the average or median change in income among households in a particular neighborhood.

　　At a minimum, confirm that incomes are being adjusted for inflation (or ideally rising). Homeowners who have stagnant or decreasing salaries may not have much cash left over after they pay their mortgage; as a result, they might not maintain their homes or stay on top of repairs, which could lower a home’s value and even its neighboring homes’ values, says Zandi.

　　Fewer Foreclosure Filings & Sales

　　On average, foreclosed homes sell for 30% less than similar homes in the same area, although the figure varies by housing market, says Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac.com, which tracks foreclosures. In areas hit hardest, especially cities in Sunbelt states, foreclosed homes often sell at half the price.

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　　As foreclosures increase, they drag the average price of homes in a neighborhood down.

　　Declining inventory

　　In most areas where ’For Sale’ signs are common, home prices are far from recovery.

　　In general, when more than 2% of homes in a neighborhood are selling at the same time, inventory is high, says Dean Baker, a co-director at the left-leaning Center for Economic Policy and Research. As the number of homes for sale decrease, sellers have more leverage and a better shot at getting an offer close to their asking price.

　　Look at the month’s supply of inventory, or how many months it will take at the current sales place for inventory to be depleted. Five to six months is the normal range, but we’re averaging just under 10 months, says DeVol. (This varies by metropolitan area.) Also, areas without new housing construction will likely see a recovery first since they have less inventory to sell, says Zandi.

　　Shrinking list-to-sales price ratios

　　On a national level, homes are selling at around 5% to 10% below their asking price, says Baker.

　　Look at list-to-sales price ratios, which is the difference between the listing price of a home and the price at which it sold. If the price difference is shrinking for an area that suggests the real estate market is improving, says Michael Evans, the president of the American Society of Appraisers and owner of Chico, Calif.-based Evans Appraisal Service, which appraises residential properties.

　　Decreasing sales price

　　On the other hand, decreasing sales prices could mean that the housing market has hit its bottom, says Baker. They also guarantee that the buyer is getting into a market at a fraction of the price that buyers paid during the bubble.

　　在近两年的时间里，美国房价急剧下滑至2003年之前的水平。如今，美国各地住房市场正显现出持稳的初步迹象。

　　当然，每个住房市场都是区域性的，彼此之间存在显著差异。但房屋所有者还是可以根据一些指标，判断他们的住房是否会升值。以下就是你房子将要升值的6个迹象。

　　失业率这个道理很简单：没有工作，你就不可能买房子。

　　随着失业率上升，买得起房子的个人就更少。这降低了住房需求，推动房价走低。

　　要查询一个城市的失业率以及是在上升还是下滑，可以上美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics）网站查询。

　　此外，还可以看看当地公司是否正在招聘，大企业是否在迁至该地区。更多的工作岗位意味着更多雇员，这最终会提振该地区的房产需求。

　　收入增长想再深入一点了解情况的有购房意向者可以看看某一街区家庭收入的平均变化或是变化中值。

　　至少应该确认这些收入是经过通货膨胀调整的（最好是在不断上升）。穆迪经济网（Moody’s Economy.com）首席经济学家赞迪（Mark Zandi）说，那些薪酬停滞或出现下降的购房者在支付了月供之后可能就没剩下多少现金了；因此，他们可能不会维修他们的房屋，或是听之任之；这会降低房 屋的价值，甚至是临近房屋的价值。

　　较少的止赎申请和出售追踪止赎问题的RealtyTrac.com高级副总裁沙尔加（Rick Sharga）说，平均而言，止赎房屋的售价会比同一地区的类似房屋低30%，但具体数据会随着不同市场而有所变化。在住房市场遭受重创的地区，尤其是在 美国南部和西南诸州，止赎房屋通常都是按照半价出售。

　　随着止赎住房增加，它们会拖累同一街区的平均房价走低。

　　库存不断减少大多数频繁见到“房屋出售”标志的地区，房价距离回升还很远。

　　立场偏左的智库机构经济与政策研究中心（Center for Economic Policy and Research）联席主管贝克（Dean Baker）说，总的来说，如果一个街区同时有超过2%的房子在挂牌出售，那么此地房屋库存量就很高。随着出售的房屋数量下降，卖房者就有更多的议价权，更有可能达成接近他们要价的交易。

　　你应该看看这个月的房屋库存供应，看看这些库存按照当前的销售状况需要多少个月才能消化。独立经济智库机构米尔肯研究所（Milken Institute）的地区经济研究主管德沃尔（Ross DeVol）说，正常水平是5-6个月，但我们目前的平均水平是略低于10个月。（大城市地区情况会有所不同。）此外，赞迪说，那些没有新住房建设项目的地区可能会率先迎来房市复苏，因为这些地区可供出售的库存量较少。

　　售价折扣幅度缩小贝克说，从全美标准来看，目前房屋的实际售价都比房主的要价低5%-10%.你可以看看房屋出售报价和实际售价之间的价差。美国评估师协会（American Society of Appraisers）总裁埃文斯（Michael Evans）说，如果某一地区这一价差不断缩小，那么就表明该地区房产市场正在好转。他拥有的加州Evans Appraisal Service提供住房地产评估服务。

　　房屋售价不断下滑贝克说，另一方面，房屋售价不断下降可能意味着住房市场已经触底。他们还保证了现在入市的购房者只需要支付泡沫时期的一部分价格就可以买到房子。