中国明年新增贷款目标可能不低于今年（双语）

　　Chinese policymakers are examining bank lending targets for next year that will equal or even exceed their 2010 quota, despite fears about overheating amid the highest inflation in the country in more than two years.

　　中国政策制定者正在研究明年的银行放贷目标。尽管通胀创逾两年新高引发了过热担忧，但明年新增贷款目标仍可能与今年持平，甚至更高。

　　Most analysts had expected a significant reduction from Beijing’s 2010 target of Rmb7,500bn ($1,100bn) in total new loans, especially after inflation hit 5.1 per cent in November and the government promised to tighten monetary policy.

　　此前分析师大多预期明年新增贷款目标将远低于今年的7.5万亿元人民币（合1.1万亿美元），尤其是自从11月通胀触及5.1%以及政府承诺收紧货币政策以后。

　　But on Tuesday, a leading Chinese official newspaper reported that the government’s lending quota would probably again be Rmb7,500bn in 2011.

　　但据本周二中国一份主要官方报纸报道，2011年新增贷款目标很可能保持在7.5万亿元水平。

　　Officials close to the process stressed that the final quota decision has not been made and the Rmb7,500bn figure is just “one opinion”.

　　接近讨论过程的官员强调说，最终指标目前尚未敲定，7.5万亿也只是“一种意见”。

　　The various regulatory agencies responsible for economic policy are meeting “every day” to discuss how much credit the state-controlled banking sector will be allocated, officials said.

　　官员们表示，负责经济政策的各监管机构现在“天天开会”，讨论受政府控制的银行业来年的信贷指标。

　　The range under discussion is between Rmb7,000bn and Rmb8,000bn, with the final quota likely to be at the high end, marking an extension of the credit surge launched in late 2008 to combat the financial crisis. Chinese banks gave twice the volume of loans in 2009 over 2008. Despite attempts to rein in loan growth this year, Chinese banks lent roughly the same amount as they did in 2009, once off-balance sheet lending is taken into consideration.

　　所讨论的范围介于7万亿至8万亿之间，最终可能定在这个区间的高端。这意味着2008年末为应对金融危机而启动的信贷热潮将得到延续。2009年中国银行业的贷款投放规模为2008年的两倍。今年虽然有意放慢贷款增速，但如果算上表外贷款，各银行实际放贷规模还是和2009年差不多。

　　“The market was expecting a credit quota of between Rmb5,000bn and Rmb7,000bn with Rmb7,000bn as the ceiling as the government tries to reduce liquidity and deal with inflation,” said Dorris Chen, of BNP Paribas. “It now appears Rmb7,000bn is the floor for next year rather than the ceiling.”

　　法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)分析师陈睆明(Dorris Chen)表示：“鉴于政府在设法减少流动性，应对通胀，市场原本预期明年新增贷款目标会介于5万亿至7万亿之间，7万亿是上限，但如今看来7万亿是下限，而不是上限。”

　　The higher-than-expected quota suggests that Chinese leaders are still relatively sanguine about the country’s inflation prospects.

　　信贷投放目标高于预期似乎表明，中国领导人对国内通胀前景仍然比较乐观。

　　With food, especially vegetables, driving most of the recent price rises, some analysts believe the problem will be short-lived and that inflation may have already peaked.

　　鉴于近期物价上涨主要由食品（尤其是蔬菜）拉动，一些分析师认为，物价飙升只会是短暂现象，通胀可能已经见顶。

　　But analysts say inflation worries are also being overshadowed by concerns that sharply cutting credit could stall growth by leaving many infrastructure and development projects unfunded. BNP Paribas estimates that local government infrastructure projects, many of them launched as part of Beijing’s stimulus to combat the financial crisis, will require as much as Rmb4,000bn in new loans next year.

　　不过，分析师表示，另一个因素是，中国对经济增长停滞的担忧超过了对通胀的担忧——假如大幅削减信贷，将导致许多基础设施及开发项目资金缺位，阻碍经济增长。据法国巴黎银行估计，明年各地方政府的基础设施项目需要多达4万亿元人民币的新贷款，其中许多项目的上马，是中国为应对金融危机而出台的经济刺激计划的一部分。