亚行：未来20年中国年均增长5.5% （双语）

　　China’s average annual rate of economic growth over the next two decades will fall to little more than half the current level as its ability to sustain huge investment declines, according to the Asian Development Bank.

　　亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)称，随着中国维持巨额投资的能力下滑，中国年均经济增长率在未来20年将下降至略高于目前水平的一半。

　　Such a slowdown would have a dramatic effect on China’s place in the world, significantly delaying the moment at which its economy surpasses that of the US as the world’s largest, having overtaken Japan as the second largest earlier this year.

　　这样的减速会对中国的国际地位产生重要影响，中国经济总量超越美国成为世界最大的时间将显著延后。今年早些时候，中国已超越日本，成为全球第二大经济体。

　　Jim O’Neill, head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs, forecast in 2009 that China could overtake the US by 2027. However, that prediction relied on China achieving growth of “close to 10 per cent for many years”.

　　高盛(Goldman Sachs)全球经济研究部主管吉姆•奥尼尔(Jim O'Neill)2009年预测，中国可能在2027年赶超美国。但这项预测的前提是中国增长率“多年接近10%”。

　　In its first official attempt to quantify China’s long-term growth prospects, the ADB said on Tuesday that its baseline projection was just 5.5 per cent on average for the 20 years to 2030, compared with 9.4 per cent between 1981 and 2007 and a forecast 9.6 per cent this year. Growth could average 6.6 per cent if China implemented reforms to reduce its dependence on investment and increase productivity through improvements in education, property rights and research and development, the ADB said. Jong-Wha Lee, ADB chief economist, said many other countries in Asia would face the same growth problem because their rapid rates of economic growth in the past three decades had been underpinned by unsustainable levels of investment. “We don’t think these countries can go back to the previous levels of strong growth that they had before the global financial crisis,” he said. The ADB report forecasts that South Korea’s long-term economic growth will fall from an average of 6.3 per cent to a baseline projection of 3.9 per cent, Taiwan’s from 6.1 per cent to 3.1 per cent, Indonesia’s from 4.8 per cent to 4.4 per cent and India’s from 5.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent.

　　这是亚行首次尝试量化中国经济的长期增长前景。该机构周二称，其基准预测为，截至2030年的20年期间中国经济年均增长率仅为5.5%，相比之下，中国经济1981年至2007年的年均增长率为9.4%，今年预计将达到9.6%。亚行称，如果中国实施改革，降低对投资的依赖，并通过改善教育质量、产权状况和研发水平来提高生产率，那么年均增长率可达6.6%。亚行首席经济学家李钟和(Jong-Wha Lee)指出，由于过去30年间迅猛的经济增长是由不可持续的投资水平支撑的，其他许多亚洲国家也会面临同样的增长问题。他说：“我们不认为这些国家能恢复全球金融危机之前的高速增长水平。”亚行报告预测韩国长期经济增长率将从平均6.3%下降到3.9%的基准预测水平，台湾将从6.1%降至3.1%、印尼将从4.8%降至4.4%，而印度将从5.5%降至4.5% 。