人民币国际化非一日之功(双语)

　　If the Chinese renminbi does emerge over the next decade or two as one of the key global reserve currencies, as Beijing hopes, it will not be the result of a “big bang” announcement, but will instead develop through a series of seemingly small steps that reshape the way the Chinese currency is used.

　　如果像中国政府期望的那样，人民币果真在未来10年或20年内成为全球主要储备货币之一，那也不会是“爆炸性”声明的结果，而将是通过一系列看似不大、改变人民币使用方式的步骤来实现的。

　　The news that the Malaysian central bank has been quietly acquiring renminbi bonds is an important one of those steps.

　　有消息称，马来西亚央行一直在悄然买进人民币债券。此举正是其中重要的一步。

　　The Malaysian investment is the natural next stage of a series of piecemeal reforms outlined over the summer to expand international use of the Chinese currency, including allowing certain investors limited access to China’s domestic bond market.

　　今年夏季，中国有关部门简要介绍了一系列零散的改革措施，以扩大人民币在国际范围内的使用，包括允许特定投资者有限地进入中国国内债券市场。马来西亚的此笔投资，是这些改革举措自然而然的下一阶段。

　　Yet the purchase also underlines the potential demand for renminbi assets among governments, banks and companies in Asia, even as the actual investment opportunities remain limited.

　　然而，此举也突显出亚洲政府、银行和企业对人民币资产的潜在需求，目前，实际投资机会仍然有限。

　　And that raises the crucial question about Beijing’s recent moves to “internationalise” the renminbi: will overseas demand for the Chinese currency overwhelm Beijing’s efforts carefully to manage the process?

　　同时，这让外界就中国政府最近施行的人民币“国际化”努力提出了一个重要问题：人民币的海外需求，是否会压倒中国政府谨慎管理这一过程的努力？

　　For the Chinese authorities, the move to permit central banks to buy renminbi is part of a controlled experiment. Beijing would like its currency to play a large role in trade settlement, reducing the volatility and costs that its exporters face when they are paid in foreign currency.

　　对于中国当局而言，允许各国央行购买人民币债券，是一项管控下的实验的一部分。中国政府希望人民币在贸易结算方面发挥重大作用，降低中国出口商在获得外币支付时所面临的波动性和成本。

　　However, Chinese policymakers admit that they are a long way from taking the crucial but politically difficult steps for the renminbi to become a genuine reserve currency.

　　然而，中国决策者承认，他们远未采取政治上十分艰难的关键举措，让人民币成为真正的储备货币。

　　To facilitate holdings of renminbi assets, Beijing would need to knock down the dense wall of capital controls that limit foreign inflows and outflows of funds and loosen its tight grip on the domestic bond market and banking system. If China were to run trade deficits, that would also significantly boost the overseas circulation of Chinese currency.

　　为了便于海外持有人民币资产，中国政府需要推倒限制外资流入和资金流出的资本管制“高墙”，同时放松对国内债券市场和银行业体系的严格控制。如果中国出现贸易逆差，这也将明显推动人民币在海外的流通。

　　Xie Duo, director of the financial markets department at the People’s Bank of China, says that the Chinese currency will eventually play a much larger role in the international financial system. But he admits: “It will take a long time to realise the internationalisation of the renminbi.”

　　中国人民银行(People’s Bank of China)金融市场司司长谢多表示，人民币最终将在国际金融体系中发挥更大的作用。但他承认：“要实现人民币的国际化，需要很长的时间。”

　　Yet one of the interesting dynamics of this process will be the pressure that builds up from the outside for China to open its markets more quickly than policymakers intend.

　　然而，人民币国际化过程中一个有趣的动向是，外界要求中国以比决策者计划中更快的速度开放市场，这种压力正在积聚。

　　If the renminbi started to play a sizeable role in Asian trade settlement, it could lead to a rapid build-up in holdings of the Chinese currency outside of the country. As a result, Asia’s banks and leading companies would become a powerful lobby of investors wanting increased access to renminbi investments.

　　如果人民币开始在亚洲贸易结算方面发挥重大作用，可能会导致人民币的海外持有规模迅速上升。因此，亚洲的银行和大企业将成为一个希望增加人民币投资途径的强大投资者游说群体。

　　“China will be forced by global market forces to make the renminbi fully convertible,” says Adam Gilmour, co-head of foreign exchange sales for Asia at Citigroup. “And when that happens, I expect a significant amount of the world’s reserves to go into renminbi.”

　　“全球市场力量将迫使中国实现人民币完全可兑换，”花旗(Citigroup)亚洲外汇销售联席主管亚当•吉尔摩(Adam Gilmour)表示，“当这种情况出现时，我预计全球大量储备都将流向人民币。”

　　Indeed, one of the popular theories among analysts in China is that the central bank, which has in recent years been frustrated in various efforts to liberalise domestic capital markets, is fully aware of the pressures that even its small reform efforts will unleash.

　　实际上，中国分析师中流行的一种理论是，近来诸多旨在开放国内资本市场的努力都宣告失败的中国央行，完全清楚哪怕是小规模改革努力也会释放出的压力。

　　Under this reading, the build-up of large overseas holdings of renminbi through trade will provide the sort of outside pressure for reform of the financial system that entering the World Trade Organisation gave to the real economy a decade ago.

　　根据这一理论，海外通过贸易持有大量人民币，将为金融体系改革带来外部压力，这种压力与10年前中国加入世贸组织(WTO)给实体经济带来的压力类似。

　　If that is the case, then Malaysia’s dabbling in renminbi bonds will have been a turning point.

　　倘若果真如此，马来西亚涉足人民币债券的举动，将成为一个重要的转折点。