美国国债不愁卖 没有中国还有日本

　　美国国债不愁卖 没有中国还有日本中国一直在促使其2.5万亿美元的外汇储备向美元之外多元化，部分人士开始担心，中国减少购买美国国债会导致美国利率上升，从而使美国政府举债更困难。

　　但是周三日本在外汇市场对美元的购买表明，中国的外汇储备多元化政策实际上也许会导致对美国国债的更多需求。

　　情况是这样的：中国在促进外汇储备向美国国债等以美元面值的资产以外多元化时，会购买以其最大的贸易伙伴国的货币为面值的债券。这些贸易伙伴不希望失去自己的竞争力，反过来就会购买美元以保持本国货币处于较低水平。

　　作为推动多元化的一部分，中国也是日圆的主要购买者，根据日本财务省（Japanese Ministry of Finance），中国今年迄今已抢购了价值270亿美元的日圆。分析师说中国的购买行为使得已经高涨的日圆再度走强。

　　现在，日本面临削弱日圆的压力，转而购买美元，并很可能以美国国债的形式购买。还不清楚日本需要购买多少美元才能阻止日圆继续升值，但很有可能高于中国为促进多元化购买的日圆。前事不忘后事之师，日本在2003年到2004年的上一次汇市干预中投入了3200亿美元。根据国际清算银行（Bank for International Settlements）的统计，当下的汇市中美元和日圆之间每日成交额为5680亿美元，与上次干预相比增加了73%.

　　这种状况并非日本独有。中国还购买了韩国的韩圆。韩国经常干预汇市，购买美元以避免韩圆上升太快，这又抵消了中国为了外储多元化对韩圆的购买。

　　Don't Worry About China,Japan Will Finance U.S. Debt China has been diversifying its $2.5 trillion reserves away from the dollar,causing some to worry that less Chinese buying of Treasurys would cause U.S. interest rates to rise and make it more difficult for the government to borrow.

　　But Japan's dollar buying in currency markets Wednesday shows Chinese reserve diversification might actually lead to even more demand for Treasurys.

　　Here's how. As China diversifies out of U.S. dollar-denominated assets such as Treasurys,it is buying debt denominated in the currencies of some of its biggest trading partners. Not wanting to lose competitiveness themselves,those trading partners in turn buy dollars to keep their currencies cheap.

　　As part of the diversification push,China has been a major buyer of yen,snapping up $27 billion in yen so far this year according to Japanese Ministry of Finance. Analysts say China's buying has helped an already strong yen get stronger.

　　Now,Japan,feeling under pressure to weaken its currency,turned around and bought dollars,most likely in the form of Treasurys. It isn't clear exactly how much dollar buying Japan will have to do to protect the yen from getting stronger,but it's likely to more than offset China's diversification into the yen. If the past is a guide,Japan spent $320 billion in its last intervention from 2003 to 2004. And this time the currency markets are 73% far larger,with $568 billion dollar-yen trading a day,according to the Bank for International Settlements.

　　Japan is not alone in this phenomenon. China has also bought South Korea's currency,the won. And South Korea routinely intervenes in currency markets,buying dollars to keep its currency from rising too quickly,again offsetting China's move out of the dollar.