美国就业市场即将出现改善（The Jobs Bounce： When and How Much？）

　　就业市场的状况可能不久就会改善了。

　　经济学家们预计，这种改善并不会体现在周五公布的7月份就业报告中。他们估计7月份的非农就业人数减少了275，000人，这个月的失业率升至9.7%.

　　即使7月份的就业数据出人意料，但它对就业统计数据的影响也不会很大。如果这个月的非农就业人数减少450，000人，将会令华尔街感到苦恼，也意味着美国总的就业人数减少了0.3%.而如果7月份的非农就业人数只减少150，000人，令市场感到欣慰，则意味着美国就业总人数下降0.1%.0.3%和0.1%的差距说明不了什么问题。

　　而从某些角度看，就业数据则有明显改善。每周首次申请失业救济人数的四周移动平均值目前已比6月底下降了10% .据High Frequency Economics的经济学家谢弗德森（Ian Shepherdson）估计，这意味着每个月少失业约20万人。

　　在此前一轮经济扩张中，美国雇主实际上并没有大量增雇人手，这意味着当本轮经济衰退2007年12月开始时，非农就业人数可能已处于相对紧缺状态。若果真如此，当经济恢复增长时，雇主们可能需要迅速填补一些因恐慌性裁员而空出的岗位。

　　德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）的经济学家拉弗格纳（Joseph LaVorgna）最近写道，非农就业人数未来几个月出人意料大幅增加的可能性提高了。

　　但就业状况改善不应与就业市场恢复活力混为一谈。大多数证据依然显示，中、长期内就业市场仍将处于疲弱状态。

　　如果此前两轮经济扩张中那种债务推动型经济增长今后永远无法完全再现，那么市场对就业者的需求量将会下降。加州大学伯克利分校的经济学家德隆（Brad DeLong）说，就像以往两轮经济衰退那样，雇主有可能利用经济低迷之机用科技手段永久性取代工人的位置，或是将就业岗位迁至美国以外。

　　旧金山联邦储备银行（Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco）的一项研究显示，与以往的经济衰退相比，本轮经济衰退的失业者中，临时性被裁者所占的比例下降了，这意味着与以往的经济复苏相比，本轮经济复苏中重返以往工作岗位的人可能也会减少。

　　股票市场将解决失业问题的希望寄托在美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）有可能将低利率水平保持更长一段时间上。美联储这种做法眼下可能会令投资者欣慰，但如果股市在资金推动下上涨至经济基本面所无力支撑的高度，美联储的这种做法将为日后造成风险。

　　The job market might start producing better numbers soon.

　　Economists don't expect them to show up in the July employment report Friday. They estimate nonfarm payrolls shed 275，000 jobs and unemployment rose to 9.7%.

　　If the figures do surprise， it won't be in a statistically significant way. A payroll decline of 450，000， which would mortify Wall Street， would mean a 0.3% decline in total payrolls. A market-friendlier decline of 150，000， on the other hand， would represent a 0.1% decline. Percentagewise， the difference is a crapshoot.

　　At some point， jobs data should improve meaningfully. The four-week moving average of new jobless claims is down 10% from late June. That translates into about 200，000 fewer job cuts a month， estimates High Frequency Economics economist Ian Shepherdson.

　　Employers didn't exactly gorge on workers in the previous expansion， meaning payrolls may have been relatively lean when the downturn started in December 2007. If so， employers might need to quickly undo some panicky layoffs when growth returns.

　　‘The risk of a substantial upward surprise on payrolls over the next few months has risen，' Deutsche Bank economist Joseph LaVorgna wrote recently.

　　Still， improvement shouldn't be confused with vigor. Most evidence still suggests an anemic job market longer term.

　　If some portion of the debt-fueled growth of the past two expansions is gone forever， then there will be less demand for workers. As in the past couple of recessions， employers will likely use the downturn to permanently replace workers with technology or send jobs outside the U.S.， suggests economist Brad DeLong of the University of California， Berkeley.

　　The percentage of unemployed workers on temporary layoff is lower than in past recessions， according to a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco， meaning fewer workers might get called back to work than in past recoveries.

　　The stock-market silver lining of stubborn unemployment is that the Fed is more likely to keep interest rates low for longer. That might make investors happy now， but it raises risks down the road if liquidity-pumped markets outpace fundamentals.