中国楼市繁荣走向低迷？（双语）

　　Chinese bonds and equities are flashing warning signs that suggest the booming mainland property sector is heading for a bust – the effects of which could ripple across financial markets worldwide.

　　中国债券和股票正在亮起警报信号，似乎表明近年来一派繁荣的中国房产行业正走向低迷，其影响可能在全球金融市场产生涟漪效应。

　　A sector that was until last year the darling of international investors is turning into a horror show as traders have started to digest evidence that real estate prices are falling and developers are losing access to funding.

　　目前有证据表明，房价正不断下降，开发商正失去资金来源。随着交易员们开始消化此类证据，直到去年还是国际投资者眼中宠儿的中国房产行业，正变成一场“恐怖秀”。

　　Fears have intensified in the international bond markets, where Chinese property developers have sold $19bn of debt in recent years. Prices of these bonds have tumbled by an average 22 cents on the dollar in the past two months alone, causing yields to jump.

　　国际债券市场中的担忧已有所加剧。近年来，中国房地产开发商已在这些市场发售了190亿美元的债务。这些债券的价格仅在过去两个月期间，就大跌22%，导致收益率飙升。

　　“You’re seeing yields now above 20 percent, which implies significant default risk,” says Owen Gallimore, Asia credit strategist at ANZ. He warns that at least half a dozen developers are in serious danger of defaulting on their bonds.

　　“现在你可以看到收益率达到20%以上，这意味着存在重大违约风险，”澳新银行(ANZ)亚洲信贷策略师欧文?加利莫尔(Owen Gallimore)表示。他警告称，至少有6家开发商面临严重的债券违约危险。

　　Equity markets are also delivering a brutal verdict. Since the start of the year, Chinese property stocks listed in Hong Kong have declined 40 percent, compared to a 22 percent fall in the benchmark Hang Seng index.

　　股市也在作出无情的判决。自今年年初以来，在香港上市的中国地产类股已下跌40%，而基准的恒生指数(Hang Seng index)同期内的跌幅为22%。

　　“People are worrying about default risk, and the implications for property companies themselves, for the banking system and for the overall equity market,” says Agnes Deng, head of China equities at Baring Asset Management.

　　“人们在担心违约风险，以及这对地产公司本身、银行业体系和股市整体的影响，”霸菱资产管理(Baring Asset Management)的中国股票业务主管邓鸿文(Agnes Deng)表示。

　　On a recent fact-finding trip to the Pearl River Delta, Ms Deng said she saw many developers reducing selling prices by 5 percent or more amid a decline in transaction volumes, even though September and October are traditionally the strongest months for mainland property sales.

　　邓鸿文称，近期实地走访珠江三角洲地区期间，她看到许多开发商降价5%或更大幅度。目前成交量下降，尽管9、10月传统上是中国房地产销售的旺季。

　　According to government data, Chinese property prices have risen 60 percent since the end of 2006. However, private sector estimates suggest that in many areas the jump in prices is several multiples of the official figures.

　　政府数据显示，中国楼价自2006年底以来上涨60%。不过，私人部门的估计似乎表明，许多地区的楼价涨幅达到官方数字的数倍。

　　Partly as a result of the dearth of accurate, comprehensive data on supply and demand for housing in China, there is a wide array of opinions about whether the market is a bubble, and if it is, whether it has started to burst.

　　缺乏准确、全面的中国住宅供需数据，在一定程度上导致人们对两个问题抱有不同的看法：中国楼市是否存在泡沫？如果存在，那么这个泡沫是否已开始破裂？

　　What is without doubt, however, is that Chinese property developers took on enormous amounts of debt in recent years as they pursued aggressive expansion plans, leaving them little room for manoeuvre if property sales do fall.

　　但是，不存在疑问的是，近年中国房地产开发商在执行大胆的扩张计划之际，背负了巨额债务，这意味着，如果房产销售确实下滑，它们几乎没有什么回旋余地。

　　Making matters worse, developers are losing access to funding, having been frozen out of public bond markets for the past three months. Meanwhile, state-owned banks are following government orders to rest-rict lending to all but the most powerful developers.

　　更糟的是，开发商正失去资金来源，过去三个月来，它们被挡在公开债券市场门外。与此同时，国有银行正遵照政府指令，限制向多数开发商放贷（只有一些最强大的开发商除外）。

　　According to Chinese media, the government this month told the trust company sector, part of the country’s fast-growing shadow banking system, to stop lending to certain developers. “The trust companies were the lender of last resort, which is why it’s so serious for that tap to be turned off,” says Mr Gallimore.

　　据中国媒体报道，政府本月通知信托公司停止向某些开发商放贷；信托公司是中国快速增长的影子银行体系的一部分。“信托公司是最后的放贷者，正因如此，这条渠道被切断是非常严重的，”加利莫尔表示。

　　Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency, this week conducted a stress test to determine how the 30 Chinese developers that it rates would perform in a downturn. For bondholders, the results were sobering.

　　评级机构标准普尔(Standard & Poor’s)本周进行了一次压力测试，以确定该机构评估的30家中国开发商在低迷期间将如何表现。对债券持有者来说，压力测试的结果是催人警醒的。

　　Most developers could withstand a 10 percent decline in property sales in 2012, S&P found. But more than half of the companies, including several large operators such as Evergrande, would struggle to meet debt repayments if contract sales fall by 30 percent.

　　标普发现，多数开发商能够承受2012年房产销售下降10%。但如果合同销售下降30%，逾半数企业，包括恒大地产(Evergrande)等数家大型开发商，将难以维持债务偿还。

　　In January 2010, when bullish sentiment about China was running high, Evergrande sold $1.35bn of five-year bonds to US, European and Asian investors with a coupon of 13 percent. Those bonds are now trading at 73 cents on the dollar, giving a yield of 26 percent. Meanwhile, Hong Kong-listed shares in Evergrande are trading at a multiple of just four times its forecast 2011 earnings.

　　2010年1月，在看好中国的情绪高涨之际，恒大地产以13%的票面利率，向美国、欧洲和亚洲投资者发售了13.5亿美元的五年期债券。这些债券目前的交易价格仅为发行价的73%，这意味着收益率达到26%。与此同时，在香港上市的恒大地产股价仅为其2011年预期收益的4倍。

　　While prices like these may appear attractive, analysts warn they could fall much lower. In 2008, when there were only a few Chinese property bonds in the market, bond prices slumped to below 50 cents on the dollar as the mainland housing market started to implode.

　　尽管这样的价格似乎看上去具有吸引力，但分析师们警告称，它们可能进一步大幅下跌。2008年，随着中国房产市场开始下滑，同类债券（当时市场上只有寥寥几只中国房产企业发行的债券）的价格曾跌至发行价的50%以下。