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中国统计人员也买菜(双语)

来源: 互联网 2011-09-22
普通

  China's National Bureau of Statistics has a tough time. If they are not being castigated for exaggerated wage data, then it's doubts about the reliability of GDP or accusations that the consumer price index understates the true increase in prices. Adam Dean/Bloomberg News

  中国国家统计局的日子不好过:他们不是因为夸大工资数据而遭人痛批,就是所发布的国内生产总值(GDP)数据的可靠性遭人质疑,或是因为消费者价格指数(CPI)低估了物价的真实涨幅而受到指责。

  There's even a saying on the Chinese internet that 'the comrades in the statistical bureau don't buy vegetables.' The implication is that if they did they would know the true extent of price increases (in Chinese).

  中国网民在网上甚至还有这样一种说法:统计局的同志们都不买菜。言下之意是,如果他们去买菜,他们肯定会知道物价上涨的真实幅度。

  Those doubts can now be laid to rest, at least a little. 现在,这些质疑可以放一放了,至少暂时如此。

  At an open day hosted by the statisticians in Beijing Tuesday, Mrs. Wang from the Shanxi provincial statistics office confirmed in the margins of the event that she did buy vegetables. “If I didn't what would I eat?” she replied.

  周二,国家统计局在北京举办了第二届中国统计开放日活动。在参加活动的间隙,山西省统计局一位姓王的女同志向记者证实,她确实会去市场买菜。“不买菜我吃什么?”,她问道。

  The event was part of a broader effort to open China's statistical system, long criticized for being opaque, to the public and the media. Senior officials, from NBS chief Ma Jiantang on down, fielded questions from the media, the public and online participants.

  本次活动是向公众和媒体公开中国统计制度的一系列举措的组成部分。长期以来中国统计制度因不透明而遭外界批评。国家统计局局长马建堂带领一批高级官员回答媒体、公众和在线活动参与者的提问。

  One question from the floor was essentially a variation on the vegetable joke: “Why is there such a big gap between peoples’ perception of high inflation and the relatively low numbers for changes in consumer prices reported by the NBS?”

  现场观众提出的一个问题从本质上说就是上面那个笑话的翻版:为什么公众对高通胀的感知和国家统计局公布的CPI的小幅变动之间存在巨大差异?

  The answer from Pang Xiaolin of the NBS: Everyone's consumption basket is different, so some people will see prices rising faster than the average recorded by the CPI. People also buy food in different places, and might see prices rising sharply in their neck of the woods when prices elsewhere rise only more modestly.

  对此,国家统计局城市司司长庞晓林的解释是:每个人消费的“篮子”不一样,所以部分人会觉得物价上涨的幅度高于CPI所体现的平均涨幅。另外,购物的地点不同可能导致部分人觉得自己所在地区的物价大幅上涨,而实际上其它地区的价格水平只是适度上涨。

  (Not on Mr. Pang's list of reasons, but perhaps more important, is the absence of property prices from the CPI basket. With rising property prices a major focus of attention for China's consumers, their absence from the CPI basket means there is often a mismatch between perceptions of inflation and the numbers published by the NBS.)

  (以下这点不在庞晓林司长所列出的四点原因中,但或许更加重要:CPI一篮子商品价格中缺少了“房价”这一参数。由于不断上涨的房价已经成为中国消费者关注的焦点,CPI一篮子商品缺少了这一参数意味着民众对通胀的感知和国家统计局公布的数据之间存在差异。)

  Another topic of interest for the audience was the math behind China's official household income data. A survey in 2008 by Prof Wang Xiaolu suggested that the average annual income of China's richest 10% was 139,000 yuan, more than 300% higher than the official 43,000 yuan figure. Xu Xianchun, a NBS official, explained that the richest 10% were represented in the survey, and that problems with collecting data on the rich were not unique to China.

  活动参与者感兴趣的另一个话题是官方公布的家庭收入数据是如何计算出来的。王小鲁博士2008年进行的一项调查显示,中国最富有的10%的城镇家庭的平均年收入为13.9万元,这是官方公布的数据4.3万元的3倍多。对此,国家统计局副局长许宪春解释说,统计局的调查包括了10%的最富有人群,而统计高收入人群的收入所碰到的问题并非中国特有。

  One factor he did not mention -- the “gray income” China's rich receive from dubious sources and which they are typically unwilling to divulge to the statisticians.

  不过,许宪春没有提到的一个因素是中国富人从来路不明的渠道获得的“灰色收入”。他们通常也不愿意向统计人员透露这部分收入。

  “You can't get fat from eating a single mouthful” goes a saying in China. Change takes time and a transparent statistical system won't be built in a day, or even a year. But an increased willingness to engage with the public and the press, and to explain how the data is put together in greater detail, at least suggests things might be moving in the right direction.

  中国有句老话,一口吃不成胖子。改变需要时间,一个透明的统计制度不是一天甚至一年就能建成的。但是,国家统计局越来越愿意与公众和媒体接触,并更详细地解释统计数据是如何汇总而成的现象至少表明,情况可能正在朝正确的方向改变。

我要纠错】 责任编辑:Nocy
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