摆在中国面前的挑战（双语）

　　The world’s economic leaders need to “rebalance” their thinking as well as their economies. Fiscal and monetary policies have dominated. That makes sense to a degree: decisions on deficits, debt and the eurozone this autumn may well determine whether the global economy slides deeper into danger, or begins the long climb back. But these policies are insufficient for sustained growth: we need action on the structural dynamics to generate jobs, higher productivity and a sustainable long-term rebalancing. What happens in China is as important as Europe, Japan, or the .

　　全球经济领袖们必须对自己的思维方式以及本国的经济进行“调整”。财政和货币政策向来居于主导地位。这有着一定的道理：今年秋季有关赤字、债务和欧元区的决定，很可能将会决定全球经济是进一步滑向更危险的境地，还是会开始漫长的复苏。但这些政策仍不足以实现持续增长：我们必须针对结构性问题采取行动，以创造就业、提高生产力和实现可持续的长期再平衡。中国目前的境况与欧洲、日本和美国一样重要。

　　China’s growth has been a source of strength in the crisis, but its leaders know their growth model is unsustainable. For 30 years, China has enjoyed average annual growth of about 10 . In 1990, its income per capita was 30 lower than the average for ub-Saharan Africa – today, it is three times greater, over $4,000. By 2030, if China reaches a per-capita income of $16,000 – a reasonable possibility – the effect on the world economy would be equivalent to adding 15 of today’s South Koreas. It is hard to see how that expansion could be accommodated within an export and investment-led growth model, so China will need to rebalance through boosting domestic demand, lowering savings and increasing consumption.

　　危机期间，中国的增长一直是一个力量源泉，但中国领导人明白，本国的增长模式是不可持续的。过去30年，中国经济平均每年增长10%左右。1990年，中国人均收入比撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲地区还低30%；而如今，其人均收入已增长3倍，超过了4000美元。到2030年，如果中国的人均收入能达到1.6万美元（这很有可能实现），对世界经济的影响将相当于增加15个现在的韩国。我们很难想象，这样的增长如何在由出口和投资拉动的增长模式下实现，因此，中国必须推动国内需求、降低储蓄水平并增加消费，以期实现经济再平衡。

　　Without fundamental structural changes, China is in danger of becoming caught in a “middle income trap” – exacerbating the world’s growth problems. In the short term, there is the risk of inflation driven by food prices. In the longer term, the drivers of China’s meteoric rise are waning: resources have largely shifted from agriculture to industry; as the labour force shrinks and the population ages, there are fewer workers to support retirees; productivity increases are declining, partly because the economy is exhausting gains from the transfer of basic production methods. Then there are other challenges, including serious environmental degradation; rising inequality; heavy use of energy and production of carbon; an under-developed service sector and an over-reliance on foreign markets.

　　如果不进行根本的结构性改变，中国有可能落入“中等收入陷阱”——从而加剧全球的增长困境。从短期看，有可能出现由食品价格拉动的通胀。从中长期来看，拉动中国疾速增长的因素正逐渐消退：资源已基本从农业转移到了工业；随着劳动力的减少和人口的老龄化，供养退休者的工作人数不断减少；生产率增速逐渐下降，部分原因在于中国经济正逐渐耗尽基本生产方式转移所带来的收益。中国还面临着其它挑战，包括环境严重恶化、贫富差距拉大、过度使用能源及碳排放过量、服务业发展滞后、以及过度依赖外国市场等等。

　　China’s policymakers are well aware of “what” they need to do. Their 12th Five Year Plan points the way. Their challenge now is “how” to do it. Together, China’s Development Research Center of the State Council, its Ministry of Finance and the World Bank are working to turn “what” into “how” for a report later this year. Our starting point is a vision of China in 2030 as one of the high income countries, while also protecting its environment and natural resources, encouraging creativity and innovation, and sharing responsibilities in the global economy.

　　中国的决策者十分清楚自己必须做些“什么”。十二五计划就指明了方向。眼下，他们的挑战是“如何”去做。中国国务院发展研究中心(DRC)、财政部和世界银行(World Bank)正携手研究如何将“什么”转变为“如何”，并将于今年晚些时候完成一项报告。我们研究的出发点是，中国将于2030年发展成为一个高收入国家，同时能够保护其环境和自然资源，鼓励发明创造，并承担起在全球经济中的责任。

　　This weekend in Beijing, a high-level group of Chinese and international experts will be discussing possible reforms and how to implement them, step by step.

　　上周末，一群高级别的中国及国际专家汇聚北京，讨论可行的改革及具体的实施步骤。

　　A critical question is how China can complete its transition to a market economy. A broad agenda needs to include redefining the role of the government and the rule of law, expanding the private sector, promoting competition, and deepening reforms in the land, labour and financial markets.

　　一个关键问题是，中国该如何完成向市场经济的转型。一个广义议程应该包括重新界定政府和法治的作用，扩展私人部门，推动竞争，深化土地、劳动力和金融市场等方面的改革。

　　To unleash human potential, China will need to accelerate the pace of open innovation, so that competition encourages Chinese firms to invent products and processes – not only through China’s research and development, but also by participating in global networks.

　　要想释放人的潜力，中国必须加快开放创新的速度，以期通过竞争鼓励中国企业发明新产品和程序——不仅要靠中国的自主研发，还要参与到全球网络中来。

　　China can “grow green” through a mix of market incentives, regulations, public and private investments, standards, and institutional development. China also aims to deliver equality of opportunity and social security to all its citizens. To do so, it needs to consider how best to deliver more and better quality public services, ensure effective and efficient social safety nets, and mobilise the private and public sectors to share responsibilities in financing, delivering, and monitoring social services.

　　中国可以通过将市场激励措施、监管、公共和私人投资、标准和制度发展结合起来，实现“绿色增长”。中国还打算确保全体公民都享有均等的机会和社会保障。为此，它必须考虑如何最好地提供更多、更优质的公共服务，确保社会保障体系的经济有效，动员私人和公共部门承担起为社会服务提供资金、执行和监督的责任。

　　China will weigh how to strengthen its fiscal system – bringing all public resources “on budget” and connecting resources to different levels of government expenditures. Yet without mobilising additional resources, including from state-owned enterprises, it will be difficult to advance reforms. We will also discuss how China can embrace its global role. China is already an important stakeholder in the international system – yet a cautious one. In the future its leaders can be a key partner for global solutions.

　　中国将考虑如何增强其财政体系——调动所有“预算内”的公共资源，并将这些资源与各级政府支出连接起来。但如果不能从国有企业等领域调动额外的资源，中国将很难推进改革。我们还将讨论中国应如何担负起它的全球职责。现在，中国已经是国际体系中一个重要的利益相关方——但它仍相当谨慎。今后，中国领导人应该会成为全球性解决方案中的一个关键参与者。

　　Even while coping with today’s economic turmoil world leaders need to design the engines of growth for tomorrow. That agenda will also build market confidence that can provide a boost today. China’s quest to find a sustainable growth model will contribute to other developing countries, regional and global growth, and the stability of the international economy. China is preparing to address its challenges. Developed countries would be wise to look ahead at their structural growth challenges, too.

　　即使在应对眼前的经济动荡时，全球领导人也必须为未来的增长引擎布局。这一议程也将树立市场信心，对目前的经济形势起到提振作用。中国寻找可持续发展模式的努力，将有利于其它发展中国家、地区及全球增长、乃至国际经济的稳定。中国正准备应对各项挑战。发达国家最好也要为自己的结构性增长挑战未雨绸缪。