中国的“两全之策”（双语）
With continuing uncertainty in the markets and escalating concerns about the global economic outlook, what policy measures might China take in the event of a double-dip recession in the US or Europe?
市场中的不确定性持续存在，对于全球经济前景的担忧也日益加剧，如果美国或欧洲出现二次探底，中国应采取哪些政策措施？
During the downturn of 2008-09, China stood out as the bright spot, contributing to over 50 percent of global growth in 2009 as spending on stimulus-related infrastructure projects got under way. Chinese growth has gradually become less reliant on the contribution of trade, while the proportion of the country’s exports destined for the US and the eurozone has been declining.
在2008年至2009年的经济低迷期间，中国成为了一个醒目的亮点，随着经济刺激相关的基础设施项目投资的实施，中国在2009年贡献了全球经济增长的50%。中国经济增长对于贸易贡献的依赖程度已逐渐降低，而中国出口中面向美国和欧元区的比例也在不断下降。
Many of the investment projects that featured in China’s 2008 stimulus package had been planned for some time, but were brought forward as a response to the external downturn. Existing fiscal policy initiatives are already stimulative.
中国2008年刺激方案中的许多投资项目，此前已规划了一段时间，只是为了应对外部经济低迷而提前实施。现有的财政政策举措已经具有刺激作用。
According to the 12th five-year plan, China will invest as much as Rmb7,000bn in the construction of urban public facilities over the next five years. With the risk of a double dip rising, the central government would most likely focus on ensuring sufficient financing for existing investment projects before contemplating a second major stimulus package.
根据“十二五规划”，中国将在未来五年中投入7万亿元，用于城市公共设施建设。随着二次探底的风险加大，中央政府最有可能专注于确保目前现有投资项目有充足的资金，然后才会考虑实施第二轮大规模经济刺激措施。
This is especially likely at a time when policymakers are focused on containing the risks associated with local government debt and an imbalanced property market, both issues that were aggravated by the last stimulus campaign.
当前政策制定者关注的焦点，在于遏制与地方政府债务和失衡的房地产市场相关的种种风险，而这两个问题，都因为上一轮经济刺激举措而有所加剧。在这种情况下，出现以上情形的可能性极大。
A second large stimulus programme would exacerbate these risks and intensify the imbalances that the government is trying to curb during the 12th five-year plan. After last month’s train collision in eastern China, it also appears that authorities have been reconsidering the pace of the nation’s infrastructure development.
第二轮大规模刺激措施会推升上述风险，加剧政府试图在“十二五”期间遏制的多种失衡问题。上月中国东部地区发生动车追尾事故以来，官方似乎也在重新思考中国基础设施发展的步伐问题。
With China’s fiscal manoeuvrability somewhat constrained, the more constructive approach to meeting some of the challenges is to accelerate reforms that aim to stimulate domestic consumption.
由于中国财政方面的操作空间多少受到了局限，要应对以上某些挑战，更具建设性的途径是加速旨在刺激国内消费的改革。
Many pro-consumption initiatives have been introduced, including an undertaking to increase the availability of affordable housing, healthcare reforms to make basic services and drugs more accessible, and an increase in the personal income tax threshold. These and other initiatives will liberate a greater portion of disposable income.
中国已经推出了许多旨在促进消费的举措，其中包括采取措施提高廉价住房供应量，开展医疗改革、使得基本服务和药物更容易获得，以及提高个人所得税起征点。以上种种举措，连同其他做法，将释放出更大比例的可支配收入。A more aggressive way of unlocking consumer spending would be to resume the process of interest rate reform. Strict controls over interest rates have pushed real savings growth into negative territory, forcing the average citizen to seek out alternative – riskier – means of preserving wealth, which in turn discourages spending, since personal net worth has become more volatile.
让消费支出摆脱束缚的另一种更加激进的手段，是重启利率改革进程。对利率的严格管控，已使得实际存款增长减速，迫使普通百姓寻求通过其他风险更大的方式，为自己的财富保值，这反过来又会抑制消费，因为个人净财富已变得更不稳定。
To support growth without stoking inflation, China’s policymakers may also aim to improve the allocation of capital to the more efficient private sector.
为了既推动增长、又不加剧通胀，中国政策制定者或许也会有意改善资本配置状况，侧重效率更高的私营部门。
At the corporate level, capital has historically been allocated inefficiently, with an imbalance in access to credit, i.e. large state-owned enterprises have the clout to obtain more favourable interest rates and terms whereas private companies – which account for 80 per cent of employment in China and 60 per cent of gross domestic product – lack the bargaining power to access cheaper bank credit.
在企业层面，由于信贷获取方面的失衡，长期以来资本配置效率较低。大型国有企业拥有影响力，可以获得更为优惠的利率和贷款条件。而提供着中国80%的就业岗位、贡献了60%国内生产总值(GDP)的私营企业，却缺乏获取廉价银行信贷的谈判能力。
There are signs that efforts to optimise the loan structure are having some effect. According to the People’s Bank of China, outstanding loans to small and medium-sized enterprises grew by 29.3 per cent and 17.8 per cent respectively last year, much faster than to large companies. The government has also differentiated reserve requirements for rural credit co-operatives and announced trial plans for SMEs to issue bonds in private placements.
有迹象表明，旨在优化贷款结构的举措正在产生某些效果。中国人民银行(PBoC)的数据显示，小企业和中型企业未偿还贷款总额，去年分别同比增长29.3%和17.8%，增幅远高于大型企业。政府还针对农村信用合作社指定了差异化的准备金要求，并公布了中小企业以定向募集方式发行债券的试行方案。
As China’s banks unleashed a flood of credit to stimulate the economy, an 87 per cent expansion in M2 money supply since January 2008 has given rise to stubborn inflation, which has been exacerbated by food supply disruptions and rising commodity prices.
由于中国各银行投放了大量信贷以刺激经济增长，自2008年1月以来，M2货币供应量已扩大了87%，这导致通货膨胀居高不下，而粮食供应问题和大宗商品价格上涨也加剧了通胀。
Since the government is concerned that inflation could undermine social stability, we do not think policymakers will be inclined to let loose another torrent of credit, though there will be greater leeway to ease policy once inflation is seen to be under control.
鉴于政府担心通胀问题可能影响社会稳定，我们认为政策制定者不会倾向于再次投放大量信贷，不过一旦认为通胀已得到控制，将有较大的放松货币政策的余地。
Officials have indicated that they might resort to a form of “targeted easing”, meaning monetary policy could remain prudent in the second half but preferential credit terms would be available to projects relating to affordable housing, rural development and small businesses.
一些官员表示，他们可能会诉诸于某种形式的“定向宽松”，即下半年会继续保持审慎的货币政策，不过涉及廉价住房、农村发展和中小企业的项目，会提供优惠的信贷条件。
Continued government advocacy for socially important infrastructure will support demand for construction and building materials, while increasing purchasing power will boost household consumption.
政府继续鼓励具有重要社会意义的基础设施建设，这将支撑对建筑与建材的需求，而购买力的提升将推动居民消费。
Jing Ulrich is managing director and chairman of global markets, China at JPMorgan
作者李晶(Jing Ulrich)是摩根大通(JPMorgan)中国董事总经理兼中国市场主席
