股市风险令富豪望而却步（双语）

　　When stock markets swooned in 2008, Alan Mantell lost about 15% on his investments.

　　当股市在2008年惨烈下跌时，艾伦•曼特尔（Alan Mantell）损失了大约15%的投资。

　　Now, the multimillionaire real-estate investor and business consultant is more insulated from market quakes, after putting more money into cash and private businesses and less into U.S. stocks.

　　现在，这位从事房地产投资及商业顾问业务的亿万富豪把较多资金放在现金及私人企业上，较少投资于美国股市，从而使自己更好地规避股市震荡风险。

　　"Today, my first principle of investing is do no harm, don’t make major mistakes,' said Mr. Mantell, president of New York-based Mantell Advisory LLC. 'It‘s not about chasing returns anymore. For me, it's about real diversification and not being so dependent on traditional equities."

　　曼特尔是总部位于纽约的投资顾问公司Mantell Advisory LLC.的总裁。他说，“现在，我投资的首要原则就是做到无害，不犯大错误。投资不再是一味追求回报。对我来说，投资就是要做到真正的多样化，不那么依赖传统的股市。”

　　After taking big risks and big losses in 2008, wealthy investors have become the Cassandras of the financial world, hunkering down with cash, gold, farmland and other haven investments. Their 'fear portfolios’ largely protected them from last week's market gyrations, when the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index spiked up and down more than four percent a day for four days straight.

　　在2008年承受了巨大风险和重大损失之后，富有的投资者都成了金融界的凶事预言家，他们保守地选择现金、黄金、农地及其他具有避险作用的投资工具。这种“谨慎的投资组合”基本上使他们在最近的市场动荡中幸免于难，当时，标准普尔500指数连续四个交易日每天起落4%以上。

　　Yet they are also imposing a national price. Recoveries are often led by the investing and risk-taking of the wealthy, and the rich have traditionally been more optimistic about the economy than everyday investors. Yet current surveys show the rich are among the most pessimistic about the economy. Rather than investing in stocks or companies that can create jobs, they are betting on continued volatility and slow growth by hoarding cash, gold and other safety assets.

　　然而，他们的这种行为会让整个国家付出代价。市场反弹常常是在富人的投资活动和承担风险的意愿推动下出现的，一般来说，富人对经济的看法比普通投资者要乐观一些。然而，当前的调查显示，富人属于对经济抱最悲观看法的那部分人。他们不是把钱投在能够创造就业的股票或公司上，而是通过囤积现金、黄金和其他安全的资产，押注市场会继续动荡及缓慢增长。

　　"If the wealthy run into the proverbial bunker, then the economy will falter,“ said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody‘s Analytics, a division of Moody's Corp. 'A loss of faith in our economy can quickly become self-reinforcing and self-fulfilling."

　　穆迪公司(Moody's Corp)旗下穆迪分析(Moody's Analytics)的首席经济师马克•赞迪(Mark Zandi)说，“如果富人们选择躲避起来，那么经济就会岌岌可危。对我们的经济失去信心很快会演变成一种自我强化和自我实现的恶性循环。”

　　Not all the rich are playing it safe, of course. Spectrem Group, the Chicago-based research firm, found that a third of millionaire investors planned to add to their stock holdings in July, just before the markets faltered. Bel Air Investment Advisors in Los Angeles, like many wealth managers, encouraged its clients to increase their stock holdings to 40% from 35% earlier this year, saying that '2011 will be another year where stocks outperform bonds.' And they still could. A spokesman for Bel Air didn't return calls for comment.

　　当然，并非所有的富人在投资时都谨小慎微。总部位于芝加哥的研究公司Spectrem Group发现，就在市场下挫前，有三分之一的百万富翁投资者在7月份打算增加股票的持有量。和许多资产管理公司一样，洛杉矶的Bel Air Investment Advisors在今年早些时鼓励其客户将持股量从35%增加到40%。该公司称，2011年又将是股市跑赢债市的一年。现在这种预期仍有可能实现。Bel Air的发言人没有回电就此事发表评论。

　　For now, however, the worried wealthy look like the smart money. Their caution signals a sweeping psychological shift from the mid-2000s, when many of the rich took a casino approach to rising markets. In 2008, households with $1 million or more in investible assets lost an average of 30% of their investments, and nearly one-fifth of millionaires lost more than 40%, according to Spectrem Group.

　　 然而，从目前来看，忧心忡忡的富人们表现得就像有经验的聪明投资者。他们的谨慎行为显示了一种从2000-2010年中期开始的势不可挡的心理变化，当时的许多富人以赌博的心态在上升的股市中搏击。根据Spectrem Group的资料，2008年，拥有100万美元以上可投资资产的家庭平均损失了30%的投资，近五分之一的百万富翁损失了超过40%的投资。

　　Now, the wealthy are more focused on preserving their fortunes than increasing them. Michael Sonnefeldt, the founder of Tiger 21, a New York-based investment club for multimillionaires, said that his members now hold an average of about 14% of their assets in cash, about double that of the mid-2000s. Tiger members have an average of about 5% of their investments in gold, although some members have more than 20%.

　　现在，富人们更关心的是保持而不是增加他们的财富。总部位于纽约的亿万富豪投资俱乐部Tiger 21的创始人迈克尔•索纳菲尔德(Michael Sonnefeldt)称，目前他的会员平均持有大约14%的现金，约为2000-2010年中期的两倍。在该俱乐部会员的投资中，黄金平均占5%左右，不过有一些会员的黄金持有量超过了20%。

　　"Our members battened down the hatches two or three years ago, and they're still battened,' Mr. Sonnefeldt said. 'Right now, it's easier to save a buck than make a buck. So our members have taken a lot of risk off the table."

　　索纳菲尔德说，“我们的会员两三年前就未雨绸缪地封仓了，现在他们还在严阵以待。眼下省钱比挣钱容易。因此，我们的会员剔除了很多风险因素。”

　　That may have cost them in the form of lower returns in 2009 and 2010. A survey by the Institute for Private Investors found that investors with investible assets of $30 million or more earned an 11.3% return in 2010, compared with a 15% gain for the S&P 500 Index.

　　他们为此付出的代价可能表现在2009和2010年较低的投资回报上。私人投资者学院（Institute for Private Investors）进行的一项调查发现，拥有3000万美元以上可投资资产的投资者2010年的回报率为11.3%，而标准普尔500指数同期上涨了15%。

　　Tommy Gallagher, a wealthy investor and former Wall Street executive, said he was kicking himself last year as stocks rallied and his safer investments earned weak returns. He came close to putting more money into stocks, but "luckily avoided the temptation."

　　曾任华尔街管理人士的汤米•加拉赫(Tommy Gallagher)是一位富有的投资者。他说，去年股市上扬了，他侧重于安全的投资仅带来微薄的回报，他为此而埋怨自己。他差一点就把更多的钱投入股市了，但他抵制住了这种诱惑。

　　"It was making me crazy all year,' he says. 'Who wants to be the schmuck at the party who's not making any money while everyone else is making money."

　　他说，“这种落差让我一整年都懊恼不已。当你参加聚会时，其他人都挣钱了，只有你没挣到任何钱，谁想成为这样的笨蛋？”

　　Gregory Curtis, chairman and founder of Greycourt, a Pittsburgh-based wealth-management firm, said he and his clients never really believed in the recovery story, because it relied on a large liquidity injection by the Federal Reserve, rather than stronger economic fundamentals.

　　总部位于匹兹堡的资产管理公司Greycourt的董事长及创始人格里高利•柯蒂斯(Gregory Curtis)说，他和他的客户从来都不真正相信所谓的反弹行情，因为这主要是依靠美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)注入的大量流动性，而不是受强劲的经济基本面驱动。

　　"I'm sure there were some wealthy families who were drinking the Bernanke Kool-aid and got burned,' he said. 'But I don't know many families in that boat."

　　他说，“我敢肯定有些富人家庭盲目轻信了贝南克(Bernanke)的话，然后引火上身。但我所知道的这样的家庭不多。”

　　Mr. Curtis said many clients were calling in this week to seek information. But they were calm and mostly looking for opportunities. "There was not the panic that we heard in their voices in 2008," he said.

　　柯蒂斯说，本周有很多客户打电话来询问消息。但他们都很镇静，基本上都是在寻找机会。他们的语气中没有2008年时的那种恐慌。

　　Deborah Midanek, a turnaround specialist and former mortgage specialist who has large investments, said she largely gave up on stocks after 2008. She didn't lose much in the crisis, thanks to her bets on commodities. But she said it was a defining moment for her and many of her wealthy friends. She now owns farm land and real estate. More than 10% of her portfolio is in cash, "which is huge for me."

　　拥有大量投资的黛博拉•米德纳柯(Deborah Midanek)是一位扭亏转盈专家，原先还是一位抵押贷款专家。她说，在2008年之后，她基本上就放弃了股市。她在那场危机中没有亏损多少，这多亏了她在大宗商品市场的投资。但她说，这场危机对她和她的许多有钱朋友来说都是一个决定性时刻。现在她持有农地和房地产。她的投资组合中有超过10%的现金，她说，“这个比例对我来说已经很高了。”

　　"After 2008, I realized that I know absolutely nothing about the equity markets,' she said. 'I think people like me just said, 'who cares about the stock market, I'm going to invest in something I understand.'"

　　她说，“在2008年之后，我意识到自己对股市完全一无所知。我想，和我一样的人都会这么说，‘谁还去关注股市？我要投资我能弄明白的东西。’”

　　She adds, however, that stock prices fell so much on Monday that she couldn't resist buying shares. "I bought stock in just one company. I sit on their board, so I understand it."

　　然而，她补充说，最近股价下跌了那么多，以至于她忍不住买了一些股票。她说，“我就买了一家公司的股票。我是这家公司董事会的成员，所以我了解它。”