中国大举发展风力和太阳能发电（双语）

　　When an industry is this reliant on government subsidies, the last thing it needs is a dose of market forces. The industry is renewable energy. The market force is China.

　　当一个行业如此依赖政府补贴时，它最不需要的就是一剂市场力量的强心针。这个行业就是可再生能源业，市场力量就是中国。

　　The paradox of wind and solar power is that they are too expensive to compete properly with conventional fuels like natural gas, yet lower equipment prices from competition can prove fatal to manufacturers. Last week, U.S. solar panel maker Evergreen Solar went bankrupt. Despite shifting its factory to China, from a state-supported facility in Massachusetts, it couldn't compete.

　　Agence France-Presse/Getty ImageseSolar Sierra SunTower电厂全景，该电厂位于加利福尼亚州兰卡斯特的莫哈韦沙漠中。风能和太阳能的悖论是，它们价格过高，无法和天然气等传统燃料开展正常竞争，而竞争所导致的设备降价对这些设备的生产商来说可能是致命的。上周，美国太阳能电池板制造商Evergreen Solar申请破产。尽管该公司把工厂从政府提供补贴的美国马萨诸塞州迁到了中国，但它仍在竞争中落败。

　　China figures large in renewable energy's future. It already is the world's largest market for new wind turbines.

　　中国对于可再生能源的未来起着重要作用。这个国家已经是世界上最大的新装风力发电机市场。

　　In solar, China's share of global demand is set to rise to 13% in 2015 from 7% this year, says Barclays Capital.

　　而在太阳能领域，据巴克莱资本（Barclays Capital）说，中国在全球需求方面所占的份额将从今年的7%提高到2015年的13%。

　　Moreover, if renewable technologies are to wean themselves off state subsidies, the sort of deflation imposed by the expansion of Chinese competitors is necessary.

　　此外，如果可再生能源技术想不依靠政府补贴而独立生存，那么中国相关企业扩大产能导致的产品降价将是必需的。

　　Chinese demand for renewables is underpinned by economic development and government backing─handy when cash-strapped European governments are cutting subsidies. But Beijing isn't interested in helping Western suppliers. In wind power, for instance, foreign manufacturers' share of the Chinese market has collapsed from 80% in 2004 to less than 15% today.

　　中国对可再生能源的需求得到了经济发展和政府支持措施的支撑，当缺乏资金的欧洲国家政府削减对可再生能源的补贴之际，中国在这方面的补贴资金却是唾手可得。但北京对帮助西方供应商并不感兴趣。以风力发电领域为例，外国的设备制造商在中国市场的占有率已经从2004年的80%骤降至目前的不足15%。

　　Having conquered their home market, Chinese wind manufacturers aren't content to stay at home. Four Chinese companies made BTM Consult's top 10 list of wind turbine suppliers last year, up from two in 2008. Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology, No. 2 in China by shipments, has recently won orders in the U.S. and aims to derive 30% of gross profit overseas by 2015.

　　在占领了国内市场之后，中国的风电设备制造商并不满足于只留在国内。BTM咨询公司（BTM Consult）评出的去年全球10大风力发电机供应商中，有四家是中国企业，高于2008年时的两家。中国风电设备出货量第二高的新疆金风科技股份有限公司（Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology）最近从美国赢得了订单，它希望2015年之前能实现公司30%的毛利润来自海外。

　　And Chinese suppliers make formidable competitors. Sanford C. Bernstein reckons Chinese turbines shipped to the U.S. and Europe are, on average, 20% cheaper than those built locally, and the gap could hit 30% next year.

　　中国供应商是强有力的竞争者。据美国投行Sanford C. Bernstein计算，中国出口到美国和欧洲的风电设备，其价格平均比美欧当地的产品便宜20%，明年将会便宜30%。

　　If anything, Western solar equipment firms face an even bigger challenge, especially as they compete in a much more fragmented industry. This helped cut average solar module prices by more than half between 2006 and 2010.

　　如果说中国的太阳能设备生产企业和西方同行有什么分别的话，那就是后者面临着甚至更大的挑战，太阳能设备制造业群雄争霸的局面使这种挑战变得更为严峻。激烈的业内竞争已经使太阳能电池组件的价格在2006至2010年期间下降了50%以上。

　　Chinese expansion will accelerate this trend. Credit Suisse reckons China's GCL-Poly Energy, for example, could have production capacity equal to two-thirds of the entire global solar panel market in 2012. What's more, by then it could be churning out panels at a lower all-in cost than current cost leader First Solar, an American firm.

　　中国的产能扩张将加速这一趋势。举例来说，据瑞信（Credit Suisse）预计，中国保利协鑫能源控股有限公司（GCL-Poly Energy）的太阳能电池板生产能力有可能达到全球市场2012年总需求的三分之二。更何况，届时该公司所产太阳能电池板包括一切费用的成本可能比目前业内成本最低的美国公司First Solar还要低。

　　Solar power needs lower costs: Bernstein estimates it costs $142 per megawatt hour─multiples of current U.S. wholesale electricity costs─and that's with tax benefits included. But achieving lower costs means lower equipment prices. So while new solar installations in 2012 are forecast to be 25% above 2010's level by volume, the revenue pool will be 23% smaller, reckons Commerzbank.

　　太阳能发电需要降低成本：Bernstein估计，用太阳能发电每千度的成本是142美元，为美国目前批发电价的好几倍，而且这还是把税收优惠算进去后的结果。但成本的降低就意味着设备价格的下降。因此，据德国商业银行（Commerzbank）预计，虽然2012年新安装的太阳能发电装置在数量上预计会比2010年多25%，但那一年的太阳能发电设备销售收入却会比2010年低23%。

　　Better technology offers one way to resist the competitive pressure. William Blair & Co. analyst Nick Heymann highlights Siemens. The German industrial group is taking substantial market share in the growing offshore wind market, where there is less competition. Siemens can also bundle transmission networks with its turbines, a critical piece of equipment Chinese competitors don't supply typically.

　　提升技术水平是抵抗这种价格竞争压力的途径之一。券商William Blair & Co.的分析师海曼（Nick Heymann）看好西门子公司（Siemens）。这家德国的工业集团正在不断增长的海外风电市场上攫取大量份额，那些市场的竞争程度要低一些。西门子还能将输电网与其风力发电机捆绑在一起销售，中国的风电设备生产商通常不提供输电网这一重要设备。

　　Western competitors will have to work hard to differentiate themselves in this way. Chinese rivals are following a well-worn path of conquering their home market and then expanding aggressively abroad, helped by generous domestic credit. An industry reliant on subsidies and needing to drive down costs anyway can hardly complain much. But don't be surprised if this most politicized of technologies becomes a flashpoint for protectionism.

　　西方企业要想靠提升技术水平这条路在竞争中脱颍而出，他们必须付出艰苦努力。中国的可再生能源设备企业正在走其他行业中国企业的老路：先是占领国内市场，然后再在慷慨的国内贷款支持下向海外市场大举扩张。对于目前仍需依赖政府补贴并且急需把成本降下来的可再生能源设备业来说，对中国这种做法几乎没资格抱怨太多。不过，如果这些最具政治色彩的可再生能源技术变为引发保护主义的导火索，也别感到意外。