中国经济增长数据雾里看花（双语）

　　There is no bigger question hanging over global markets than the resilience of China's economic growth. Yet the tea leaves are especially difficult to read right now.

　　对全球市场来说，一个最大的问题是中国经济增长的复原力。然而，眼下中国经济数据却尤其让人一头雾水。

　　On Friday, China's National Bureau of Statistics will release gross-domestic-product growth figures for the first quarter of 2011. Markets already take the government's official data with a grain of salt. The timing of China's New Year, which often messes with first-quarter figures, could cast even more doubt on the usefulness of this particular release.

　　 Bloomberg News二月份，在中国山东省济宁市，一名工人在倍耐力轮胎厂整理橡胶带。本周五，中国国家统计局将公布2011年一季度国内生产总值(GDP)增速数据。市场已经对政府官方数据普遍表示怀疑。常常会影响一季度数据的春节则让人更加质疑即将发布的一季度数据是否准确。

　　Economists expect the figures to show GDP expanding 9.5% from a year earlier, in line with the prior two quarters though a slowing from the nearly 12% growth rate of early 2010. Still, that relatively strong pace should arrest some fears of a "hard landing" in China as the nation ratchets up its inflation-fighting efforts. The central bank just raised benchmark interest rates for the fourth time in as many months.

　　经济学家们预计，数据将显示GDP同比增长9.5%，与此前两个季度增速相仿，不过较2010年年初12%的增速有所放缓。尽管如此，在中国加大遏制通胀的力度之际，这一相对强劲的增速应该能从一定程度上消除人们对中国发生硬着陆的担心。中国央行此前刚刚上调了基准利率，是数月来的第四次加息。

　　The data won't extinguish slowdown worries entirely, however. Indeed, separate reports show consumer confidence is at its weakest in a decade. The nation just recorded its first quarterly trade deficit in seven years, but that has as much to do with the higher cost of commodity prices as with stronger demand.

　　不过，数据不会彻底消除对经济放缓的担忧。实际上，其他报告显示，消费者信心处于10年来的最低水平。中国刚刚公布七年来首次出现的季度贸易逆差，不过这是大宗商品价格上涨和需求增强双重作用的结果。

　　Meanwhile, other economic reports have been mixed. Industrial-production growth has accelerated, but the government changed those figures this year to exclude smaller firms. Concrete production and freight transported by rail have separately edged down. HSBC's manufacturing index dropped in February and stayed low in March.

　　 与此同时，其他经济报告喜忧参半。工业生产增速加快，不过政府今年调整了统计方法，没有将较小的企业包括在内。混凝土产量和铁路货运量均有所下滑。2月份汇丰(HSBC)制造业指数下降，3月份依然处于低位。

　　For that reason, the highlight of Friday's release may be the appearance for the first time of an official number for the quarter-on-quarter growth rate. Presenting the quarterly change in GDP at a seasonally adjusted annual rate is already the basis for official figures in most other countries, including the U.S. It also better captures changes in the economy's momentum, which markets are desperate to gauge.

　　 因此，周五数据公布的亮点可能是首次出现官方季度环比数据。将GDP的季度变化以经季节调整的年率化形式表达出来，这已经是包括美国在内的大部分其他国家的官方数据的基础了。这还可以更好地体现经济势头的变化，而经济势头的变化是市场急于把握的。

　　Yet the consumer-price index separately out Friday could yet be the headline-grabber. It is expected to push above 5% year-on-year growth in March from 4.9% in February. The higher it goes, the more aggressive the government will likely have to be with interest rates. And that would cast an even bigger question mark over the sustainability of China's impressive growth.

　　然而，周五还将出炉的消费者价格指数(CPI)有可能成为关注的焦点。预计3月份CPI同比涨幅将超过5%，而2月份为4.9%。CPI越高，政府加息的力度可能就必须越大。这将给中国快速增长的持续能力打上一个更大的问号。