瑞信成金融危机赢家(Give Credit Where Credit Is Due)

　　瑞士信贷集团（Credit Suisse Group）确认了自己的地位——金融危机中的赢家之一。

　　瑞信第二季度基本收入较前一季度增长62%，同时公布基本股权收益为27.4%，这一水平是投资银行在经济繁荣时期杠杆极高的情况下才能实现的。

　　Bloomberg News/Landov瑞士信贷第二季度业绩不错，但在保持顶尖投行地位上将面临挑战。保持这样的水平将会是个挑战。瑞信本身的长期股权收益目标为20%.而随着竞争重新加剧，股权等业务的利润率也承受着压力。

　　但市场份额的增加可能更具可持续性。以机构经纪业务为例。瑞信已经进入全球前三名，对冲基金一旦复苏，瑞信就将受益。

　　瑞信早就调整了业务模式，缩减了杠杆、降低了风险、退出了波动性强的资本密集型业务，将重点集中在委托业务方面。投资银行和私人银行业务的整合也取得了成效。

　　瑞信目前拥有十分坚实的资本状况，第一级资本比率为15.5%，信贷敞口也在可掌控的范围内。与大多数欧洲同行的做法不同，瑞信并未将资产转移到银行帐户内，而是按市值计价。结果是，瑞信甚至还得以留出更多现金，用于可能的增加派息。

　　没错，大部分好消息是在价格方面。其股价为有形帐面价值2.5倍。但随着投资者越来越重视市盈率，同时分析师可能上调收益预期，瑞信股价还可能继续上涨。

　　摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的预测远远先于其他机构，其预计瑞信2010年市盈率仅为9倍。

　　Credit Suisse Group has confirmed its position as one of the winners from the financial crisis.

　　In the second quarter， underlying earnings rose 62% from the previous quarter and the Swiss bank reported an underlying return on equity of 27.4%， the sort of level investment banks only managed in the boom with massive leverage.

　　Sustaining this will be a challenge. Credit Suisse itself has a long-term ROE target of 20%. And margins already are coming under pressure in businesses such as equities as competition returns.

　　But market-share gains may be more sustainable. Take prime brokerage. Credit Suisse has entered the global top three， positioning it to benefit from any hedge-fund revival.

　　Credit Suisse was early to adapt its business model by cutting leverage， reducing risk， exiting volatile and capital-intensive businesses and focusing on client business. The integration between the investment bank and private bank also is paying off.

　　Credit Suisse now boasts a robust capital position， with a Tier 1 ratio of 15.5%， and manageable credit exposures. Unlike most of its European peers， it didn't transfer assets to its banking book but marked them to market. The result： Credit Suisse has even been able to set aside more cash for a possible increased dividend.

　　True， much good news is in the price. The shares trade at 2.5 times tangible book value. But with investors increasingly focused on earnings multiples and with analyst earnings upgrades likely， the shares could run further.

　　Morgan Stanley， whose forecasts are well ahead of others， reckons the shares trade at just nine times 2010 earnings.