中国地产调控三心二意（双语）

　　For all of Beijing’s actions to keep apartments affordable – higher interest rates, tightened lending and taxes and restrictions from Shanghai to Guangzhou – it does not really want prices to fall. Anyone wondering why should consider Hong Kong stock number 230: Minmetals Land (MML). This midsized developer is a perfect illustration of the deep conflicts in China’s housing policy.

　　虽然中国政府采取了种种措施——比如提高利率，收紧贷款和税收政策，以及从上海到广州的诸多城市出台限购令——希望让老百姓买得起房，但政府并非真的希望房价下跌。所有对此不明所以的人，都应该琢磨一下香港证交所股票代码为230的公司——五矿建设有限公司(MML)。这家中等规模的地产开发商堪称中国房地产政策深层次冲突的绝佳写照。

　　Eight years ago MML was trading (badly) as ONFEM Holdings, specialising in curtain walls and window frames. It then became a subsidiary of the state-owned China Minmetals Corporation (MMC), the country’s largest trader of base metals. Since then, thanks to regular infusions of assets and capital from its unlisted parent, it has built a property portfolio across the Pearl and Yangtze River Deltas, and in the Bohai Rim. That MML is not terribly good at development – it seems to take longer than many privately owned peers to convert assets to cash – is irrelevant. The point is that MMC, along with at least a third of China’s centrally-administered state-owned enterprises, has direct and material interests in real estate.

　　8年前，五矿建设有限公司名为东方有色集团有限公司（ONFEM Holdings），专业生产幕墙和窗框产品，当时股价表现不佳。后来，它成为中国最大的贱金属交易商、国有中国五矿集团公司(MMC)的子公司。从那时起，由于经常获得非上市母公司的资产与资本注入，五矿建设在整个珠三角、长三角地区和环渤海地区建立起了房地产投资组合。五矿建设并不特别擅长地产开发——在将资产转变为现金方面，它花费的时间似乎比许多私有房地产开发商都要多——不过这没有关系。问题的关键是，五矿集团（以及至少三分之一的中国央企）在房地产行业有着直接和重大的利益。

　　It is well known that China’s millions of amateur property speculators want prices to stay strong. With corporate bonds and overseas stocks off-limits, and a one-year bank deposit now paying almost three percentage points less than the rate of inflation, property is the only available asset class with a fighting chance of delivering positive real returns. But China Inc, too, is long property. It is thus little wonder that the latest data show investment in real estate development rising by 32.9 per cent in the first half of this year, compared to the same period in 2010, while commercial and residential property sales were up 24.1 percent. Reforms to keep the sector from overheating still further are, and will remain, halfhearted.

　　众所周知，中国数百万业余炒房者希望房价保持坚挺。由于无法涉足公司债券和海外股票，而1年期银行存款利率比通胀率低将近3个百分点，地产是国内唯一有望实现实际正收益的资产类别。而“中国公司”(China Inc)也在做多地产。难怪最新数据显示，今年上半年房地产开发投资比去年同期增长了32.9%，而商业地产和住宅地产销售额则上升了24.1%。因此，目前中国防止房地产行业进一步过热的改革有些三心二意，将来也仍将如此。