短线观点：中国软着陆的幻觉（双语）

　　An early effort to amaze cinema goers with special effects was Le Thaumaturge Chinois, a 1904 French film about a Chinese conjurer.

　　1904年，法国拍摄了一部有关中国魔术师的电影——《中国魔术》(Le Thaumaturge Chinois)，这是首部试图用特技效果让观众惊叹的影片之一。

　　Modern Beijing may not be about turning dogs into women or making lamps appear out of thin air. But it engaged in a trick just as complex: trying to slow the overheating economy without plunging the country into a recession.

　　现代的中国政府也许无意把狗变成女郎，或者在空空如也的地方变出灯来。但它施展的“魔术”同样复杂：试图减缓过热的经济，同时又不至于让国家陷入一场衰退。

　　Figures on Wednesday suggest it is not having much success. Growth in gross domestic product accelerated from the first to the second quarter, and was only marginally down year-on-year.

　　周三发布的数据表明，中国政府在这方面做的不太成功。从第一季度到第二季度，国内生产总值(GDP)的增长有所加快，只是按同比计算才略有放缓。

　　There was some good news in the figures, which showed a degree of rebalancing from exports to consumption. But this was overshadowed by further evidence of the out-of-control housing and office construction boom. In June investment in new property jumped 29 percent over the previous year; in the first six months Rmb2,625bn ($404bn) was pumped into construction, up by a third.

　　这批数据中有一些好消息，显示出某种程度上的再平衡（从出口转向消费）。但令其逊色的是，有进一步证据证明，住宅和办公楼的建筑热潮仍未得到遏制。6月份，新房产的投资同比大增29%；今年头6个月，投入建筑业的资金为2.625万亿元人民币（合4040亿美元），增长了三分之一。

　　Industrial production and retail sales were also surprisingly strong in June.

　　6月份的工业产出和零售销售额也强劲得出人意料。

　　All this suggests further rate hikes ahead. But as the economy has not slowed significantly in response to the four hikes since Christmas Eve (plus bank lending restrictions and price controls), the chance that the central bank goes too far must be increasing.

　　这一切似乎说明，中国央行将进一步上调利率。但是，在中国经济面对去年12月24日以来的4次加息（加上银行放贷限制和价格管制）尚未显著放缓之际，中国央行收紧过度的几率肯定也在加大。

　　Investors took no notice of that risk on Wednesday. Even before Ben Bernanke’s unsubtle hint that QE3 – more quantitative easing – was an option if the economy worsens, Asian equities were given a big boost by the Chinese data.

　　周三，投资者对这种风险不屑一顾。即便在本?伯南克(Ben Bernanke)并不含蓄地暗示，若经济恶化，QE3（第三轮量化宽松）将是一个选择之前，中国经济数据就有力提振了亚洲股市。

　　This makes no sense. It is also a reversal of moves earlier this year, when bad news on the Chinese economy was taken as good news by investors, as they hoped for a soft landing. Shareholders seem to have an unshakeable faith in the ability of the Chinese authorities to control the economy. The danger is growing that this is just an illusion.

　　这是不合逻辑的。这也是今年早些时候市场行为的逆转，那时候，投资者将有关中国经济的坏消息当作好消息，因为他们希望出现软着陆。股民们似乎对中国当局调控经济的能力抱有不可动摇的信念。越来越大的危险是，这一切都是幻觉。