"quantity"exercise:Common Probability Distributions
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Questions 1:
Monte Carlo simulation is best described as:
A 、providing a distribution of possible solutions to complex functions.
B 、a restrictive form of scenario analysis.
C 、an approach to back-test data.
Questions 2:
A project offers the following incremental after-tax cash flows (CF):
The internal rate of return (IRR) of the project is closest to:
A 5.5%.
B 2.5%.
C 4.4%
A is correct. Monte Carlo simulation provides a distribution of possible solutions to complex functions. The central tendency and the variance of the distribution of solutions give important clues to decision makers regarding expected results and risk. B is incorrect; scenario analysis shows the changes in key financial quantities that result from given economic events. C is incorrect; it more correctly describes historical simulation.
A is correct. Using a financial calculator: CF0 = –12,500, CF1 = 2,000, CF2 = 4,000, CF3 = 5,000, CF4 = 2,000, CF5 = 1,000, CF6 = 500, and solving for IRR: IRR = 5.46867% ~ 5.5%. Alternatively, the net present value (NPV) of the given cash flows can be found by using the three possible answers.
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